Rice in the future will be stable, moderate and rising

Introduction: from the perspective of the fundamentals and policies of rice, there are both positive and negative factors However, from the perspective of the current market situation, the price of rice in the future should be stable, moderate and moderate From the basic point of view, there are several reasons that will drive the rise of rice price: in terms of 6bm production, first, the rice planting area and yield continue to decrease significantly In 2002, the rice planting area in China was about 28.442 million hectares, 3.9% less than the previous year, and the total yield is expected to be 175.73 million tons, 1.85 million tons less than the previous year Among them, the sown area of early rice decreased from 6.39 million hectares to 6 million hectares, a decrease of 6.1% Rice production has been greatly reduced for the fourth consecutive year The continuous decrease of output makes the supply and demand of rice gradually balance Second, the sown area of high-quality rice increased and the yield increased According to the data of relevant departments, in 2002, the sown area of high-quality early rice reached more than 4.1 million hectares, an increase of about 9% over the previous year, and the proportion of total surface seeds of high-quality early rice increased from 60% in 2001 to 70% Third, with the continuous adjustment of agricultural production structure in 2003, it is expected that the sown area of rice will continue to decrease, and the output will continue to show a downward trend, while the sown area and output of high-quality rice will still increase, the quality structure of rice will also be improved, and the proportion of high-quality rice will increase, which will effectively improve the overall price level of rice 6bM In terms of inventory, on the one hand, after half a year's digestion, the stock of early rice has been basically consumed At present, there is little stored grain in the hands of farmers for sale, and the stock of early rice and late rice in grain storage enterprises is not much After two or three years of treatment and selling, most of the stored grain and rice in the sales area or even in some production areas have been disposed of At present, the backlog is mainly concentrated in the northeast, and some varieties It has even become balanced and a little tense, and the market pressure has been reduced On the other hand, the pressure of oversupply in the domestic rice market still exists, the aging phenomenon of rice in China is still prominent, and the pressure to deal with the aging grain is still very large Since the end of last year, in order to alleviate this pressure, auction activities of aging rice have been held successively in various parts of China, and the auction activities are still in progress in the past two months According to incomplete statistics, by 2 At the end of the month, Heilongjiang, Hubei, Sichuan, Hebei, Anhui, Jiangsu and other provinces and cities auctioned or tendered nearly 2.3 million tons of aged grain It is estimated that this batch of aged grain will flow into the market in March In March, Hunan, Jiangxi and other provinces and regions began to sell aged grain, with a total volume of about 300000 tons At the same time, the rice stock in the northeast region is still high According to relevant data, there are about 1 million aged rice waiting to be processed in Jilin Province alone The treatment of aged grain not only reduces the huge rice stock, but also has a great impact on the rice market price, which affects the recovery of rice market price 6bM In terms of demand, there are relatively strong stimulating factors for the demand of new grain before it goes on the market On the one hand, it's just a time when some grain deficient farmers enter the market to purchase and increase their demand On the other hand, the area of grain for green will continue to expand this year Before summer grain goes on the market, it's just the time to cash in grain, so the demand will increase significantly On the other hand, the consumption of rice as feed and industrial grain will be more Great potential In recent years, the price of corn has been rising all the way Compared with the low price of rice, the rice used by farmers for feed has an obvious growth trend It is estimated that the feed consumption in 2003 will be about 9 million tons, an increase of 13% over the previous year; the industrial rice consumption will be 2.05 million tons, an increase of 14% over the previous year At the same time, domestic rice production and marketing areas are taking various measures to expand rice consumption, especially the feed and industrial use of early rice, through the diversification of rice use In terms of 6bm import and export, 2002 was the first year for China's accession to the WTO China imported 236000 tons of rice Compared with China's import quota of 3.99 million tons, it is only a small part From the analysis of China's total rice supply and demand, there is no need to import a large amount of rice In 2002, China exported 1.98 million tons of rice, an increase of 6.3% over the same period in 2001 China's rice export situation is not very optimistic It is predicted that China's rice import and export will change in 2003 It is estimated that about 500000 tons of rice will be imported and 2 million tons of rice will be exported in 2003 From the perspective of policy, the first is that grain supplied by the policy of returning farmland to forest will increase significantly, and rice is one of the main varieties Second, although there is pressure on the selling of old grain, the inventory of old grain has been greatly reduced and the pressure has been significantly reduced However, the pressure on the selling of old grain in Northeast China is relatively large, the price is relatively low, the selling time is relatively concentrated, and the impact on the market is relatively large Third, in 2002, the domestic rice purchase price was lowered, which to some extent affected the trend of rice price In 2003, some provinces, such as Jilin and Anhui, will release the purchase and protection price of rice, and the price of rice will be reduced 6bm from the perspective of the international market, at the end of 2002, the main rice producing countries in the world substantially reduced their production, while the consumer countries increased their production, but the total demand rice inventory decreased, the transaction price was close to the lowest level in 15 years, and there was a demand for price recovery It is expected that rice prices in the international market will go out of the low level and rise to some extent in 2003 6bm to sum up, in 2003, the contradiction between supply and demand of domestic rice price has eased, and the price will recover in a stable way The strength of the recovery depends on the strength of the selling of old grain In terms of varieties, the price of early rice, high-quality rice, glutinous rice and other varieties has risen a lot As far as the region is concerned, the rice stocks in Northeast China are more prominent, the selling pressure of old grain is very obvious, and the price will continue to be in a depressed state; while in southern indica rice production and marketing areas, the price is mainly stable and rising 6bM