Review of the impact of avian influenza on soybean meal price in history

Introduction: avian influenza is an infectious disease of poultry caused by influenza A virus Highly pathogenic avian influenza is one of the most serious, highly infectious and lethal At present, there is no case of human being indirectly infected with avian influenza due to eating chicken and eggs, but there has been a direct infection from chicken to human As early as 1878, the first outbreak of avian influenza occurred in Italy Since then, the avian influenza virus has been invading the whole world in a century and a half In the near future, avian influenza has spread in Europe again, causing a certain decline in CBOT and soybean meal prices in Dalian Let's review the situation of the outbreak of avian influenza in history to see how much the impact of avian influenza on soybean meal prices is (see CBOT soybean prices before 2000 in terms of price changes) 1 At the end of 1997, H5N1 avian influenza broke out in Hong Kong In May 1997, the first case of H5N1 avian influenza occurred in a chicken farm in Hong Kong, China In the following months, the avian influenza virus spread rapidly, leading to the death of a large number of domestic chickens infected with the virus What's more, the virus mutated and spread to mammals and humans: in August 1997, a 3-year-old boy in Hong Kong died of avian influenza, the first human case of H5N1 infection in the world In the following months, a total of 18 people were infected with the virus, six of whom died In order to prevent the further spread of H5N1 avian influenza virus to human beings, the Hong Kong SAR government issued a "special killing order" on December 28, 1997, which destroyed 1.3 million chickens in Hong Kong within two days, and stopped importing poultry and livestock from the mainland, causing a continuous drop in domestic soybean meal prices This is currently considered to be the most serious outbreak of avian influenza in the world As can be seen from the soybean index chart, from May 1997, the CBOT soybean price dropped to 600-620 from the lowest in 680-690 region, which once dropped nearly 100 cents / bushel However, this decline was not caused by avian influenza, but mixed with other factors However, the outbreak of avian influenza in Hong Kong in May 1997, as the most serious one, was a turning theme in the rise 。 The overall outbreak of avian influenza in Hong Kong in December 1997 is the real reflection of the impact of the outbreak At that time, the soybean price fell by about 20 cents, from 690-700 to 670-680 After that, the soybean price continued the downward trend in the bear market 2 December 1999 global avian influenza pandemic December 2, 1999 global avian influenza pandemic: the outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza in Italy, France and Luxembourg successively In order to prevent the introduction of avian influenza into China, the State Administration of entry exit inspection and Quarantine issued a notice to prohibit the import of birds and products from Italy, France, Rwanda and other countries; at the same time, it is prohibited to mail or passengers to bring birds and products from the above countries into China; routine inspection of international navigation ships, aircraft and trains passing through China or staying in China, if any, from the above countries Meat and its products were all sealed, which led to a small drop in the price of cobt soybean and soybean meal From the perspective of price change, in December 1999, the global avian influenza was prevalent The price of CBOT soybean fell by 460 from 480 at the beginning of the month, that is to say, in the early stage of the outbreak, the market reflected a drop of about 20 cents, but rose again to around 480 at the end of the month 3 In 2001, there was another outbreak of avian influenza in Hong Kong On May 18, 2001, the Department of agriculture, fisheries and nature conservation of the Hong Kong SAR government announced that highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza occurred in live chickens in three food markets in Hong Kong Subsequently, H5N1 avian influenza virus was isolated from geese in Macao SAR The Hong Kong SAR government has decided to destroy 1.2 million poultry in Hong Kong, and the Macao SAR government has taken similar measures On May 20, Hong Kong announced that it would temporarily suspend the import of live chickens from the mainland It has a negative impact on the price of domestic soybean meal, causing a drop in the price of domestic soybean meal From the domestic soybean meal index chart, it can be seen that after the outbreak of avian influenza in Hong Kong on May 18, 2001, the soybean meal price in Dalian basically did not fall, but delayed the pace of the rise, and the CBOT soybean price only fell from 460 to 440, then recovered the previous trend In the spot market, the price of soybean meal in South China fell by 100 yuan / ton, from 1700 to 1600 It can be seen that the impact this time is only partial 4 On March 1, 2003, the most widespread outbreak in Europe, H7N7 avian influenza virus was found in six farms in the east of the Netherlands near the German border The Dutch government immediately issued an order to suspend the transfer and sale of chicken, duck and egg products in all farms, and set up a warning area within 10 kilometers of the farms where avian influenza was found By March 3, the number of farms suffering from bird flu had risen to 13 On the same day, in order to prevent the spread of the epidemic to other countries in Europe, the European Union announced a comprehensive ban on the export of live poultry and eggs in the Netherlands Bird flu has hit the Netherlands, one of the world's largest poultry exporters In just a few weeks, 14 million poultry were isolated and more than 18 million sick chickens were slaughtered on about 900 farms What's more, during the outbreak, a total of 80 people were infected with the avian influenza virus, including a 57 year old Dutch veterinarian who was infected when he tested the sick chicken and died of complications of pneumonia caused by avian influenza Since then, H7N7 avian influenza has spread throughout Europe, with cases of avian influenza virus infection in Belgium and Germany adjacent to the Netherlands This is the most widespread spread of avian influenza in the world [NextPage] in March 2003, the most widespread outbreak of avian influenza occurred in the Netherlands The international soybean price dropped from 570 to 540-550, or about 20-30 cents Dalian soybean meal dropped to 1876 from its lowest level in 1957, down 80 yuan 5 The large-scale spread in Asia including China after December 2003 In December 2003, some countries and regions in Southeast Asia successively suffered from avian influenza, among which Thailand, Indonesia, Vietnam were the more serious countries and regions Vietnam and Thailand all suffered from avian influenza infection and human death Since January 2004, avian influenza has not been controlled, but has spread on a large scale in Asia There have been outbreaks in Japan, South Korea, Cambodia, Pakistan, Laos, etc At the beginning of the new year, avian influenza has hit the poultry industry all over the world, especially in Asia In order to put out the epidemic, governments of all countries are willing to lose money and kill all poultry within 5 kilometers of the epidemic area on a large scale China has been on high alert since the diagnosis of avian influenza in neighboring countries, but it has not been spared On January 26, 2004, China announced that Wuxue in Hubei Province and Wugang in Hunan Province had the first suspected avian influenza epidemic Subsequently, the epidemic continued to spread As of February 19, 2004, 16 provinces and autonomous regions had avian influenza in China After the outbreak of bird flu in China during the Spring Festival, soybean meal in the first trading after the Spring Festival fell to the limit, and then fell to 2640 points, or 236 points, from the lowest closing date of 2876 on the last trading day before the Spring Festival But then soybean meal followed the international soybean back to the upward trend, back to the top of 2876 and then rose further 6 The European Commission confirmed the first case of avian influenza in Europe on October 17 At present, the situation of avian influenza in Europe is as follows: last week, Turkey, Romania and Russia near Moscow first confirmed the outbreak of avian influenza, and the first test results of Greece suspected highly pathogenic avian influenza samples were negative; at present, the detection of avian influenza in Croatia and Macedonia is still in progress On Sunday, October 23, a deadly strain of H5N1 avian influenza virus was found in a parrot that died in quarantine in the UK; on Monday, October 24, an outbreak of avian influenza was confirmed in Tambov, 400 km southeast of Moscow, which is another area in Europe and Russia The outbreak of bird flu in Europe caused the CBOT soybean price to drop to 566.4 from 599.4, among which Monday's surge and fall have not been confirmed in Europe, so the drop is still about 20 cents Compared with CBOT soybean market, Dalian soybean market has a strong speculative atmosphere in the recent rapid rebound and rapid fall The market is dominated by the psychological panic factors caused by avian influenza Soybean meal fell from 2550 to 2350 by 200 points The impact of avian influenza on soybean meal market is mainly reflected in the decrease of farmers' enthusiasm to supplement the market and the decrease of soybean meal market consumption in the off-season At present, China's pig industry is in a declining stage due to low profits, and the continuous outbreak of avian influenza in Eurasia, which will further shrink the poultry industry, further reduce the consumption of soybean meal, and bring down the price of domestic soybean meal, which is normal However, the decline of soybean meal in Dalian is much larger than that of CBOT soybean and soybean meal In 2004, the first outbreak of avian influenza in China also saw a drop of more than 200 points After all, the domestic avian influenza had existed before, people's consumption structure could not be changed greatly in a short period of time, and the number of domestic digested soybeans continued to increase Avian influenza in Europe affects us soybean meal exports more than Chinese soybean meal demand Moreover, from the trend of CBOT soybean after several outbreaks of avian influenza in history, at the beginning of the outbreak, the soybean price will fall by 20-30 cents, which is only a phased impact, and then the soybean price will return to the original trend Therefore, after the market's attention to avian influenza has been gradually weakened, CBOT soybean is more likely to shake the bottom again when the output pattern is basically determined; for domestic soybean and soybean meal, the domestic soybean meal demand has been sluggish, which may continue to maintain a weak pattern for a short period of time, but at present, the domestic soybean meal inventory is relatively low due to the insufficient start-up of oil plants With the cooperation of low fundamentals, it is necessary to follow CBOT to enter the bottom building process.