Review of domestic corn market last month and forecast of future trend

Introduction: June is the key period for the price recovery of corn market in China This period not only reversed the trend of price decline in May, but also laid a good foundation for the continuous rise of corn price in July Looking at the domestic corn market price in June, compared with may, the average price increased by 20-30 yuan / ton, and the price has been in a relatively stable running situation Since late May, the price of corn in Northeast China has increased by 20-30 yuan / ton In recent years, the price of corn out of warehouse tends to be stable The price of corn out of warehouse in central and Western Jilin is about 960-970 yuan / ton, and the price of corn out of warehouse in Central and Western Liaoning is about 970-980 yuan / ton The closing price of corn in Dalian port is about 1040 yuan / ton, Qinhuangdao port is about 1030-1040 yuan / ton, and Shanghai port is about 1100-1120 yuan / ton The delivery price of corn station in Fuzhou, Fujian is about 1170-1180 yuan / ton, and the price of corn platform in Nanchang, Jiangxi is about 1120-1140 yuan / ton The above regions are also in the stage of stable price rise Market review in June: (1) overview of climate conditions Rainfall generally occurs in Northeast China, which is beneficial to corn growth In the early ten days, large-scale precipitation appeared in most parts of Jilin and Northeast Inner Mongolia, which initially alleviated the drought in this area and was conducive to the growth of seedlings, but the soil moisture in the southwest of Longjiang river was still poor After entering the middle and late ten days, large-scale precipitation appeared in most of Longjiang, Jilin and other areas, and the drought in Northeast China was basically relieved The current temperature and precipitation conditions are conducive to the growth of seedlings From the south to the north, the Huang Huai Region in North China began to rush to plant corn In the first ten days of June, the precipitation at the end of ten days improved the soil moisture and basically alleviated the influence of drought in the early stage In the middle and late ten days of North China, the eastern part of the Yellow River and the southern part of the Huaihe River, there was large-scale precipitation, and the progress of corn sowing and emergence was basically normal Compared with last year, the corn sowing time in this year's North China and the Huanghuai river did not delay (2) the demand for corn is growing rigidly, and the inventory will continue to fall This month, the domestic demand for corn showed a rigid growth Due to the rapid development of animal husbandry, the consumption of corn feed increased year by year In order to digest the overstocked inventory, more efforts have been made in industrial transformation and industrial consumption has increased steadily Domestic corn consumption is on the rise Because the gap between consumption and supply is mainly solved by using inventory, the total inventory of corn in China has been declining since 1999 It is expected that the total inventory of corn in China will be reduced to about 36 million tons before the new corn goes on the market this year In addition, the frequent selling activities of chenyumi in April and may have eased the pressure on domestic corn inventory The reduction of inventory is as follows: The solution of the contradiction between supply and demand after the new corn goes on the market provides guarantee (3) the lower price of substandard wheat affects the increase of corn price At present, new wheat began to appear on the market in 2002 in Huang Huai Region of North China This year, the open balance price of new wheat in southern Jiangsu and other regions fell, which restricted the price rise of corn in this region However, the low price of substandard wheat will not over depress the price of corn, because feed enterprises in southern Jiangsu and other regions have already purchased a certain amount of feed wheat in the early stage, and the substitution effect of wheat on corn is limited In addition, corn starch and alcohol producers in Huanghuai region of North China have a large demand for corn, so the demand for corn in this region is relatively rigid, and the price will still rise in the later period On the other hand, the reason for the slow price rise in North China and Huang Huai Region is that the production area is busy with summer harvest and summer planting, and the volume of grain trading is reduced (4) in May, China exported 270000 tons of corn According to customs data, in May 2002, China exported 270000 tons of corn, 590000 tons less than April 2002, 200000 tons less than May 2001; from January to May 2002, China exported 3.23 million tons of corn, 1790000 tons less than the same period last year; from October to May 2001, China exported 4.69 million tons, 1060000 tons less than the same period last year The sharp decrease of corn export in May was mainly affected by the "foot-and-mouth disease" in South Korea The outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease in South Korea during May 1st led to the stagnation of corn purchase bidding and corn export shipment in South Korea Although the export speed of corn in China accelerated again in late May, the customs data did not make statistics on the shipment at the end of May According to a recent report, a new round of foot-and-mouth disease broke out in South Korea It is estimated that it may also have a certain impact on China's corn export In the later stage, China can still maintain a certain scale of corn export At present, it remains to be seen whether the foot-and-mouth disease in South Korea has a substantial impact on China's corn export in the later stage, because at present, South Korea is bidding for a certain amount of Chinese corn In June, the U.S Department of agriculture estimated that the demand for feed corn in South Korea in 2002 / 03 was about 6.9 million tons, an increase of 450000 tons compared with the forecast last month At present, the FOB price of China's corn export is about 96-97 US dollars / ton, and the CNF price to South Korea is about 100-101 US dollars / ton The price of China's corn export is significantly lower than that of the United States, maintaining its attraction to South Korean Buyers In the later period, American corn will be strong, and its competitiveness with Chinese corn will be reduced In the later stage, China will maintain a certain amount of corn exports It is expected that China will export 6 million tons of corn in 2001 / 02 without any problem (V) US corn FOB export price rose The FOB export quotation of American bay port has risen, and the current FOB price is close to the level in late May At present, the basis of FOB price for July contract is 29 cents / bushel, slightly larger than that in the first ten days According to this basis, the FOB price of Meiwan port in July is about 93 dollars / ton, about 1.5-2 dollars / ton higher than that in the first ten days, which is equivalent to the reference price of China port of 1140-1150 yuan / ton, about 10 yuan / ton higher than that in the first ten days In June, the U.S Department of agriculture predicted that the U.S corn production would reach 245 million tons in 2002, an increase of 4 million tons over the previous year, and a decrease of 7.24 million tons in June from May The main reason for the adjustment is that the rainfall in the U.S corn planting belt from May to June led to the decrease of corn planting area and unit yield The U.S Department of agriculture expects the U.S corn price to be firm in 2002 / 03, while China's corn export is expected to increase significantly The U.S Department of agriculture expects China to export 6.5 million tons of corn in 2001 / 02, an increase of 500000 tons over the previous month, and 6 million tons of corn in 2002 / 03, an increase of 2 million tons over the previous month It can be predicted that the reduction of corn production in the United States will significantly affect the international corn market price Forecast of corn price trend in the future: from the perspective of recent price trend, weather conditions, domestic demand and inventory conditions, import and export conditions, international market prices and other factors are all conducive to the rise of corn price, so the author expects that the domestic corn price will go out of a steady rise in the short term From the perspective of the long-term price trend, China's export speed will gradually accelerate, and the mentality of grain sales in Northeast China will gradually strengthen However, under the competition of grain sales in various regions, the price of corn in the near future should fluctuate steadily and rise slightly After August and September, the sale of aged grain in China and other regions may reach a climax In order to complete certain import quota, a large amount of corn or a small amount of corn may be imported Under the influence of the pressure that the new corn in southern China will be listed one after another this year, it will be more difficult for China's corn to rise, and even the price may slightly fall (author:) share to feed Weibo share to: