Review and Prospect of laying hens market this year

Introduction: first, the current corn price is unfavorable to the laying industry, and the future situation is worrying Feed resources are the basis of laying industry production The corn price situation has been rising for one year In June, the corn price was 1.23 yuan, 7.04% higher than the half year average price of 1.14 yuan Last month, the price of corn was 1.17 yuan, 0.06 yuan less than that in June, and the price per ton of corn was 61.5 yuan higher than that in last month Driven by corn price, the price of wheat bran also increased In June, it was 1.05 yuan, 0.06 yuan higher than the average price of 0.99 yuan in the first half of the year; the price of layer material was 1.74 yuan, 2.92% This is the highest price in three months This is the general trend In addition, it is estimated that production will be reduced in the summer harvest The situation will be more serious Enterprises need to pay attention to it Generally speaking, it is not good for the production of laying hens From the perspective of location, corn prices rose in 22 provinces in June, accounting for 73.3% of the total Most of them are Beijing, Hainan, Jiangsu, Liaoning, Hunan, Yunnan, Jilin, Chongqing, Inner Mongolia, Anhui and Hubei Beijing, the country's largest corn price hike, rose 0.37 yuan, with most provinces around 0.10 yuan The price of corn originally varies greatly in different regions Different provinces and regions need to analyze their own price situation at any time, because the impact of small changes in feed prices on the breeding industry should be magnified several times In order to analyze the location of corn price and make each province know its own position, we use half year average price to review In the first half of this year, the number of high price areas increased to 10, with an average price of 1.327 yuan, 17% higher than the national average They are Hainan, Guangdong, Fujian and Anhui The price of corn far exceeds the international market price Other provinces and regions are in the middle price range of 0.90-1.20 From 15 provinces in the same period last year, there is only one Jilin Province left This is the current price situation of energy feed Due to the rising price of resources, the cost of laying industry increases Looking forward to the second half of 2001, feed prices may continue to rise, but not fall, so increasing the cost of laying hens and reducing profits pose a threat to laying industry Of course, there is a process We need to be vigilant and pay attention to the production adjustment in the second half of the year to prevent passivity It is predicted that the South should be prepared for importing corn The price of foreign grain market varies greatly, and the price difference in the same market can be 10% - 20% in a month Enterprises need to monitor the price trend of the international market dynamically and purchase cautiously 2 At present, the price of protein feed is stable, so we should deal with the trade relationship well The price of protein feed represented by soybean meal has been stable all the time, which is related to the relationship between international trade and domestic production Proper import will help to stabilize prices, and good relations will do more good than harm There are 17 provinces in the middle price range of 1.80-2.20 yuan a year and a half The high price provinces and regions are mainly in inland areas, with the price reaching an average of 2.433 yuan per kilogram, 15% higher than the national average Due to the limited amount of protein feed, and the international market price is lower than that of China, soybean meal has been imported all the time It is beneficial for laying industry to deal with international trade well In June, the average price of soybean meal was 2.12 yuan, 3.67% lower than the half year average price of 2.20 yuan The price per ton was reduced and increased by 55.9 yuan, which did not affect the price increase of chicken feed On the contrary, corn prices rose in 22 provinces It seems that the rising feed price has become a foregone conclusion, the main role is corn, and the resource situation is not optimistic Of course, international trade import adjustment can be used when necessary It is estimated that the abnormal price increase of corn in 1995 is impossible, but the impact on the laying industry still needs to be paid attention to In the past three to six months, the egg price has been declining, which has threatened the production of laying hens The fluctuation of egg price has been recognized by the producers We counted the records of 85 months, showing that there are two major cycles, the first cycle has a peak of 41 months, with an average price of 7.52 yuan, ranging from 6.014 to 9.040 It seems that this is the reason for the development of early layers The second periodic peak is very short After that, the price fell into a trough, with an average of 5.37 yuan now lasting 28 months The highest is 6.430, and the lowest is 4.655 yuan, which is obviously low This is the situation of laying industry At present, it is still in the trough, and may continue to be a preferential one, especially corn prices are still rising, resulting in increased costs It is certain that laying hens maintain low profits Enterprises should reduce production according to market demand, which is the general situation In June 1991, the situation of laying hens was still bad The retail price of fresh eggs was 5.16, basically equal to the half year average price of 5.09 yuan In June, fresh egg prices rose in 19 provinces, ranking Heilongjiang, Hainan, Jilin, Beijing, Shaanxi, Zhejiang, Gansu, Jiangsu, Chongqing, Shanxi, Anhui, Shandong, Henan, Hubei and other provinces, accounting for 63.33% of the total There is no reason for the change It is possible that after the loss in the previous stage, the reduction of producers' stocks has produced results, and some provinces and regions have controlled the situation of overproduction Egg prices may also rise as a result of higher corn prices At present, it is impossible to judge, and we should pay close attention to this issue In June, the price of fresh eggs still fell in 10 provinces, including Guizhou, Jiangxi, Sichuan, Hunan, Yunnan, Shanghai and Hebei Of course, it has something to do with the high prices in some provinces Forecast the price from the profit situation; no matter in the countryside or in the enterprises, they are in a loss state, without the enthusiasm to stimulate the production of laying hens, but the recent price trend is upward, which may be a short-term rise It is predicted that the price of eggs may be between 5.05 yuan and 5.31 yuan in the near future In the second half of 2001, the production of laying hens was still difficult, and it was difficult for the whole industry to make money There are three reasons for maintaining the continuous production: first, although the feed price is rising, the self-produced feed can also be used in rural areas; second, the producers adjust the stock, improve the technology, and open up markets outside the province; third, the industry is transferred to low-cost areas, develop specialized production, and reduce management costs The national price situation is very bad in the near future Each province needs to analyze its own situation 4 The profit of eggs has been at a low ebb, and will encounter a loss in the first stage By June 2001, the price comparison of eggs and grains for 85 months was counted, and now it is at the trough of the third cycle In the previous stage, after 28 months of profit peaks, the price ratio was 5.318 The laying industry is fully profitable, especially in rural areas Although the price of eggs in the previous stage is also a trough, the reason why corn is profitable is because of its low price Therefore, the price comparison exceeds the profit and loss limit There is no such advantage now Because the price of corn has been rising, turning into the trough means a loss It has been seven months now, and the price comparison is only 4.565 In the future, if the fluctuation period is 32 to 34 months, theoretically there will be 9 to 10 months of loss period in the future Producers should pay close attention to the market situation, make decisions on their own production and reduce losses This is the situation of laying hens In June 2001, only 4 provinces were able to make profits for laying hens, ranking as Chongqing, Guizhou, Yunnan and Sichuan They were all provinces with high price The price of eggs in the provinces with high price reached 6.31 - 7 yuan Other provinces and regions cannot compare with it There is no problem in keeping their layer production going However, none of them is a major province of laying hens Because we did not calculate the production weighting of prices, we did not fully reflect the degree of difficulties in Laying Hens Production in China In June 2000, there were 22 provinces in which laying hens lost money: Beijing, Jiangsu, Shanghai, Zhejiang, Liaoning, Fujian, Shandong, Hebei, Henan, Guangdong, Anhui, Shanxi and other provinces, which dropped to less than 4.0 to 1 Laying hens lost 73.3% of the country's total, which was really shocking For these provinces and regions, no matter how to improve technology, strengthen management or develop rural specialized household breeding, it is difficult to reverse the losses If the feed price continues to rise in the second half of the year, and the cost is increased by half, it is expected that many egg breeders will be difficult to maintain, only to reduce the stock, or even kill all of them, and the breeders will pay close attention to the analysis of the situation Laying hens need to be alert and keep their stocks in a planned way From our analysis, the profitability of different locations is different Chicken farms, feed factories and investors need to find the location difference of commodities to make money Therefore, information is a very important resource for an enterprise, so mastering information can bring profits In the past five to six months, the location rule of egg price has not formed a national unified market in China's commodity economy The national location is very different, and the statistical price is only the average price Therefore, it increases the difficulty of analysis For this reason, we study the price situation of 30 provinces and regions In order to prevent short-term errors, we use the data of the recent 18 months to divide the average half year, the second half year and the same period last year into three stages Provinces with a per kilogram of more than 6.5 yuan are high price areas, while those with a per kilogram of less than 4.8 yuan are low price areas, and those between are medium price areas The results are as follows: 1 High price area: Guizhou, Hainan, Yunnan, Sichuan, Hubei, Jiangxi and Hunan kept high price one and a half years ago Now there are only four provinces in the southwest, with an average of 7.359 yuan In the same period of last year, there were 8 high price areas, and the number of high price areas was decreasing in one year It seems that the price trend is declining It should be said that they are the potential market for commodity producers They also need to improve technology, reduce costs and strengthen the foundation for continued profitability The number of laying hens in these provinces is not large, but it has been developing smoothly The key to the future profits of Tali lies in the improvement of technology and management The market has little influence on them 2 Low price areas: at present, there are 18 provinces and regions with low price areas, which have not changed much in the past year They are Zhejiang, Gansu, Shaanxi, Shanghai, Henan, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Jilin, Jiangsu, Beijing, Tianjin, Shanxi, Hebei, Heilongjiang, Liaoning and Shandong, accounting for 60% of the country The average price is only 4.162 yuan, which is really difficult to maintain normal production It is worth noting that these provinces and cities have maintained low prices for more than one year Many provinces are the major production provinces of our country, and are the commodity areas for export Although it is good for commodity circulation, it is extremely bad for local layer production These provinces and regions should pay attention to, on the one hand, opening up the market, on the other hand, adjusting the structure, improving the technology and, as appropriate, reducing the stock 3 Middle price area: mainly including Chongqing, Jiangxi, Hunan, Guangxi, Guangdong, Hubei, Anhui, Xinjiang and Fujian They are characterized by the old egg supply province or internal market sales in the south, which is also the market of commodity eggs Although it exceeds the break even point, it is also very difficult The location rule of egg profit in the past six months: the profit of the producer is not entirely determined by the price, but also depends on the cost of investment Therefore, the profit ability is divided by comparing the price of egg and grain The profitability of provincial eggs is also judged by the average value of six months According to the current technical conditions, if the price ratio is more than 5.8 to 1, it can be considered as a high profit area; if the price ratio is less than 5.0 to 1, it can be considered as a low profit area, i.e loss may occur The results are as follows: the profit level has been declining for a year and a half It dropped to 4.488 from 5.420 to 1 in the same period last year Therefore, on the whole, the profit situation of laying hens is declining, although the production of laying hens continues However, there is a big difference in the profits of different provinces and regions 1 High profit area: from 8 provinces to only 4 in one year, there is only one middle profit area left The above situation is enough to reflect the serious situation of laying industry in the past year and a half Most provinces and regions in the country have long-term losses Only Guizhou, Yunnan, Chongqing and Sichuan can maintain high profits The provinces with high egg profits are only in the southwest The transportation in these provinces is inconvenient, and it is very difficult to input resources or products Their market volatility eased and their profit level remained at an average of 6.21 to 1, making their business life easier It seems that China's high profit area