Review and Prospect of layer market in the past six months (6.8)

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(forecast after April 2000) njl: Liu Shaobo, Shi Youlong, Liu nuojl, China Agricultural University; egg prices have been declining for half a year, but the profits of layers have been rising For many years, the egg price in China has been showing periodic fluctuation Because of the early price limit and subsidy policies for the market, the excessive market fluctuation has been prevented, which is very conducive to the development of laying hens at that time In 1994, the peak reached 41 months, maintaining an average price of 7.52 yuan In the future, it will enter frequent fluctuation up and down, with a general period of no more than 20 months Until April 2000, the price dropped continuously and remained in the trough stage If the profit and loss threshold is 6.50 yuan, it has lasted for 14 months, with an average price of 5.66 yuan, the highest price of 6.43 yuan and the lowest price of 4.73 yuan In April, the national average price was 4.73 yuan, 10.32% (0.54 yuan) lower than half a year Egg prices continued to decline in Northeast, North and Northwest China The egg price dropped below 4 yuan per kilogram, and the lowest in Liaoning, Jilin and Heilongjiang was only about 3.3 yuan Njl's surprise is that although egg prices have fallen again and again, production continues And the whole industry is still making money Of course, it has an important relationship with the continuous decline of feed prices, the adjustment of producers' stocks with fluctuations, the improvement of technology, and the timely transfer of industries to low-cost areas and specialized households Because the composition of profit not only depends on the price, but also on the cost, that is, the input-output ratio We often compare the price of egg and grain According to the national situation, the breakeven point is set at 5.0 to 1, which means that laying hens are profitable if they exceed the breakeven point In April, the national price comparison was 5.33 to 1, an average decrease of 5.31% over half a year But it is still in the profit range From the perspective of the whole country, there are 18 provinces and cities exceeding the Yingwei boundary point, and only Shandong, Ningxia, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong, Shaanxi, Beijing and Tianjin are in low profit or loss Looking back on the profit situation in the past six months, it is quite good The table below reflects recent price and profitability Njl Table 1 National egg price in 1999 njl January February March April May June July September October November December 1999 6.86 6.97 6.43 6.00 5.76 5.85 5.76 5.87 6.09 5.81 5.64 5.52 20 years 5.49 5.38 4.29 4.73 1999 National egg grain price comparison 99 5.55 5.71 5.23 4.89 4.69 4.93 4.96 5.22 5.44 5.44 5.57 5.81 20 5.89 5.71 5.37 5.33 2 The reason why eggs make money in half a year is that the price comparison between njl and April 2000 has lasted for 21 months, with an average of 5.338 to 1 If the price comparison cycle is 32 to 34 months, it has exceeded the profit turning point by 4-5 months Now the price of eggs is falling again and again, but the profit situation is still very good The reason is that the price of corn in China keeps falling In April, the national average price was 0.89 yuan per kilogram, 6% lower than half a year Although soybean meal prices rose, they were 2.14 yuan in April, down 5.9% on average from half a year ago However, due to the limited dosage, it can not affect the cost of fresh eggs Njl recently due to the stability of the international grain market, there is still surplus grain in the domestic area, and it is impossible for the price to rise, which will affect the profits of laying hens It is predicted that in four months, that is, around August, the price of laying hens may still fall, but the profit situation can still be maintained Laying hens can also maintain stable or slightly increased production Of course, producers need to pay attention to observe that what we predict is only the trend, but also the impact of policies, consumption and food prices Njl laying hens can keep profits on the whole, but it should also be noted that Shandong, Jiangsu, Guangdong and Tianjin are in low profit or loss These provinces and cities may reduce the stock and balance the national output They are all big provinces for raising chickens Pay attention to the production situation of these provinces and cities, adjust their stock in time, and pay attention to the turning point of the low-lying stage Only by analyzing the law of fluctuation and learning the ability of commodity forecasting can producers obtain stable profits Njl is also the key to improve the technical level, especially the conversion efficiency The ratio of egg to material is reduced by 0.1, which is hundreds of thousands of yuan of profit for the scale field Many manufacturers change varieties in order to improve efficiency Laying hens are raised in cities, but because of the increase of urban cost, the decrease of marginal benefit and the lower and lower profit, the industry has to be transferred to low-cost areas and rural specialized households, which is also the reason why laying hens continue to develop at such a low price In fact, this is also the law of commodity production Therefore, the profitability of different locations is different Chicken farms, feed factories and investors need to find the location difference of commodities to make money Therefore, information is a very important resource for an enterprise, so mastering information can bring profits Location information is also important The location rule of egg price in the past three or six months of njl China's commodity economy is still in its infancy and has not formed a national unified market The law of the whole country is not the same in every province and region The actual price of eggs varies greatly The statistical price is only the average price Therefore, it increases the difficulty of analysis We study the price situation of 30 provinces and regions (except Tibet) In order to prevent short-term errors, we use the data of the recent 18 months to divide the average half year, the first half year and the same period last year into three stages Provinces with a kilogram of more than 6.5 yuan are high price areas; those with a kilogram of less than 5.0 yuan are low price areas, and those between are medium price areas According to the order of three periods, it is found that there are the following rules: njl Table 2 egg price classification in 29 provinces (6-month average value) njl price area analysis project average in the first half of this half year average in the same period last year average in the number of provinces with high price area 8 9 13 Average price 7.378 7.421 7.862 price range 8.585-6.527 8.527-6.587 8.260-6.590 number of provinces and regions with medium price 5.917 average price 5.576 5.672 5.736 Price range: 6.243-5.088 6.498-5.187 6.390-5.227 number of provinces and regions with low price 17 12 1 average price: 4.177 4.802 5.227 price range: 4.708-3.760 4.970-4.532 5.227 the national average price in the first half of this half year is 5.264 5.849 6.657 in the same period of last year From the perspective of the whole country, it has been declining for a year and a half There are quite different egg prices in different locations Of course, enterprises need to exploit their own market and seek profits by taking advantage of the regional difference of commodities Therefore, analyzing the price difference and finding the potential market is an important part of enterprise decision-making The purpose of the review is to analyze the future Njl 1 High price area: it is mainly distributed in southwest and central China provinces The egg price keeps high all the time Hainan, Guizhou, Yunnan, Sichuan, Chongqing, Guangxi, Jiangxi and Hunan are all over 6.5 yuan in 18 months Plus Guangdong, Fujian, Xinjiang and Anhui, which maintain high prices for about a year These provinces maintain high prices for a long time It should be said that they are the potential market for commodity producers They also need to improve technology, reduce costs and strengthen the foundation for continued profitability The laying industry in the above provinces and regions has been developing smoothly The key to the profit lies in improving the technology and management level, and the market has little impact on them Their demand for feedstuff is not decreasing Njl 2 Low price zone: the low price zone has changed a lot in the past half a year There was only one Liaoning Province a year ago, and now there are 17 provinces and cities whose layer prices have slipped into the low price zone The price drop accounted for 57% of the total, mainly in Northeast China, North China and Beijing, Tianjin and Shanghai Shandong, Hebei, Jiangsu, Jilin, Ningxia, Shanxi, Shaanxi, Henan, Inner Mongolia, Gansu and Zhejiang, which are low prices for a long time, deserve attention Many provinces and cities have maintained low prices for more than a year Many low-cost provinces used to be large production provinces and commodity areas for sale This is not good for laying hens These provinces and regions should pay attention to, on the one hand, opening up the market, on the other hand, adjusting the structure and improving the technology, and not blindly increasing the stock Njl 3 Medium price area: mainly including Guangdong, Guangxi, Fujian and Qinghai provinces The original medium price provinces and cities have fallen to the low price area These provinces are characterized by internal market as well as the commodity market of laying hens In the future, with the strengthening of commodity circulation and the participation of urban enterprises in marketing, the price difference of location will probably narrow The profit of njl producers is not entirely determined by the price, but also depends on the cost of investment Therefore, the profitability is divided by the price of egg and grain The profitability of provincial eggs is also judged by the average value of six months According to the current technical conditions, if the price ratio is more than 5.0 to 1, it can be considered as a high profit area; if the price ratio is less than 4.5 to 1, it can be considered as a low profit area, which may result in low profits or losses (see Table 3) the results are as follows: njl Table 3 30 province chicken grain price classification (6-month average value) njl profit area analysis project average in the first half of this half year average in the same period last year average in the number of high profit areas 23 13 21 Average price 5.922 5.729 5.648 price range 8.035-5.000 6.742-5.125 6.687-5.014 number of profit area provinces 5 13 8 average price 4.792 4.757 4.671 Price range: 4.965-4.640, 4.965-4.515, 4.939-4.528 number of low profit regions and provinces, 21 average price: 4.271, 4.297, 4.402 price range: 4.407-4.134, 4.297, 4.402 National average