Regionalization of pig industry and prediction of commodity production in China in the past 20 years

Introduction: new page 1 (Part I) VL2: Ge Xiang, Shi Youlong, Liu Nuo, Liu Shaobo (China Agricultural University) VL2 in the past 20 years, there are two areas with the fastest progress in animal husbandry in China: first, the improvement of modernization level; second, the regionalization of animal husbandry production The regionalization of production itself is an important embodiment of the optimal allocation of resources, the development of commodity economy, the construction of infrastructure and the progress of animal husbandry technology Therefore, it is necessary to analyze the production regionalization systematically VL2 the position of Chinese meat production in the world in the past 20 years VL2 Table 1 Chinese and world meat production (10000 tons) VL2 region VL2 VL2 world VL2 VL2 VL2 1979 VL2 1999 VL2 annual increase rate (%) VL2 1979 VL2 1999 VL2 in China Annual increase rate (%) VL2 meat production VL2 13369.30 VL2 22889.58 VL2 2 2.73 VL2 1033.2 VL2 5946.8 VL2 9.15 VL2 total production VL2 5187.50 VL2 8980.83 VL2 2.78 VL2 1001.2 VL2 4006.7 VL2 7.18 VL2 Total grain yield vl215275.0 vl2207187.4 VL2 1.52 VL2 33210.0 VL2 50838.6 VL2 2.15 VL2 VL2 From the above table, we can get the following concepts: VL2 1 China's animal husbandry development ranks first in the world In 1999, the total output of meat in the world was 228895800 tons Calculated from 1979, it has increased 1.71 times in 20 years, with an annual growth rate of 2.73%, which is far lower than the annual growth rate in China It can be seen that the development of animal husbandry in China is the fastest in the world China's total meat production is 59.468 million tons, accounting for 26% of the world's production, ranking first in the world Since 1979, it has increased 5.76 times in 20 years, with an annual growth rate of 9.15% In recent years, for every 1kg of meat food increased in the world, 0.5kg of it comes from China VL2 2 China has made the fastest progress in resource conversion efficiency China's grain growth is far lower than that of meat In 1999, China's grain output was 508386 thousand tons, ranking first in the world However, from 1979, it has only increased 1.53 times in 20 years, with an annual increase rate of 2.15% It shows that the modernization of animal husbandry in China is effective, the transformation efficiency has been greatly improved, and the input-output ratio has been greatly reduced The modernization of animal husbandry in China has exceeded the world average On the whole, the ratio of food to meat in the world is about 9.05, and that in China is 8.55, while the ratio of input to output 20 years ago was 32.14 to 1 It can be seen that although China's grain growth is average, due to the modernization of animal husbandry and the improvement of transformation efficiency, the shortage of resources in China has been made up This shows that VL2 has played an important role in China's scientific and technological progress VL2 Prediction of the stage growth and trend of China's meat in the second and 20th years VL2 Table 2 The stage growth and increasing vehicle VL2 in China VL2 1979 VL2 1984 VL2 1989 VL2 1995 VL2 1999 VL2 project VL2 VL2 5 year VL2 5 year VL2 6 year VL2 4 year VL2 total meat production (10000 tons) VL2 1033.20 VL2 1583.70 VL2 2628.50 VL2 5261.00 VL2 5946.80 VL2 annual increase rate (%) VL2 VL2 8.92 VL2 10.66 VL2 12.26 VL2 3.11 VL2 meat per capita in that year (kg) VL2 11.04 VL2 14.51 VL2 22.63 VL2 39.83 VL2 45.02 VL2 VL2 has made great achievements in China's meat production It is a doubt in the hearts of the whole nation whether we can maintain such a huge growth momentum in the future Predicting the growth trend is an important question to be answered Vl21 In the past 20 years, the fastest growth stage of meat in China is 1984-1995 The annual growth rate in 11 years is 10.66% (the first 5 years) and 12.26% (the second 6 years) It can be seen from the stage growth of meat that the total output of meat in 1999 was 59.468 million tons, which was the foundation laid since 1995, when it reached 52.61 million tons VL2 2 Now meat production has entered a stable stage From 1995 to 1999, the annual growth rate has decreased to 3.11%, indicating that the growth of total meat production has slowed down significantly after 1995 It is predicted that in the future, China's meat will enter the stage of improving quality and adjusting variety structure, and we can't expect to have a very high output growth Both producers and managers should recognize this trend objectively Vl23 In the past 20 years, the consumption of meat in China has been growing rapidly In 1999, the per capita share of meat reached 45.02kg, which has exceeded the world average According to the stage division, the fastest growth stage of per capita meat is 1989-1995, which only took six years to increase from 22.63kg to 45.02kg In the future, the growth of meat consumption will also tend to be slow, which cannot be increased too much People should be prepared VL2 production development and total import and export volume of pork in China in the past three and 20 years Table 3 growth of pork production in China VL2 year VL2 1979 VL2 1984 VL2 1989 VL2 1995 VL2 total meat production in 1999 (10000 tons) VL2 1033.20 VL2 1537.70 VL2 2628.50 VL2 5261.00 VL2 5946.80 VL2 The total output of pork in China (10000 tons) vl21001.20 VL2 1444.00 VL2 2122.60 VL2 3648.60 VL2 4006.70 VL2 pork in total meat (%) VL2 97.00 VL2 93.90 VL2 80.80 VL2 69.40 VL2 67.40 VL2 per capita pork (kg) VL2 9.09 VL2 11.04 VL2 16.24 VL2 25.28 VL2 28.48 VL2 pork annual increase rate (%) VL2 VL2 7.60 VL2 8.01 VL2 9.45 Vl2.37 VL2 VL2 1 In 1999, the total output of pork in the world was 89.8083 million tons From 1979, it increased by 1.73 times in 20 years, with an annual growth rate of 2.78% The growth rate was slightly higher than that of the total output of meat in the world Different from China, pork is the main meat in the world In recent years, the growth rate of pork in China is significantly lower than that of other meats, and the meat structure has changed In 1999, the pork output accounted for 67.4% of the total meat output of 59.468 million tons, while in 1979, the proportion of pork reached 97.0%, indicating that the proportion of other meat increased by 10.5 times in recent years The structure of meat has changed a lot Vl22 China's pork production has developed rapidly, reaching 4.467 million tons in 1999, four times more than 10.012 million tons in 1979, becoming the world's largest pork production country, accounting for 44% of the world's total production of 89.808 million tons 6% 82.8% of the total output of ZA 37.9 million tons in Asia is produced in China, which is more than the total output of developed countries (38.23 million tons) It can be seen that China is a major country in pig industry in the world The number of live pigs on hand is also the first in the world In 1999, there were 430.024 million pigs on hand, accounting for 47.6% of the total number of 903.637 million pigs on hand in the world VL2 3 China is not a big country in pork trade in the world In 1999, only 80700 tons of pork were exported, accounting for 1.75% of the total meals in the export trade, and the export amount was only 8724700 US dollars The export volume of developed countries is 60 times that of us, and the export amount is 94 times that of us It seems that although China is a big producer of pork, it is a small exporter, which is not commensurate with our production status This may be formed by history, because we always advocate self-sufficiency Vl24 Fortunately, China's live pig export is good In 1999, China exported 1961 million pigs (mainly to Hong Kong and Macao), accounting for 12.2% of the world's total export of 160.6 million pigs The export amount at destination is US $236.69l million The export unit price of live pig in China (average $120.7) is higher than that of developed countries, and 56.2% higher than that of the world It shows that the world market recognizes the quality of live pigs in China Vl25 In the early 20 years, the growth rate of pork was the fastest From 1979 to 1995, the growth rate in 16 years was 7.60%, 8.01% and 9.45% respectively After that, the growth rate decreased to 2.37% It shows that since 1995, the growth of pork production has slowed down significantly, and the proportion of pork in meat has entered a declining stage In 1999, the per capita consumption of pork reached 28.48kg, which exceeded the world average It is predicted that the structure of animal husbandry will continue to be adjusted in order to increase the output of beef and mutton