Recent domestic and foreign troubles in Chinese soybean meal market (8.11)

OA show ('918 '); due to the centralized arrival of soybeans, the supply of soybeans in Shandong, Dalian and other major soybean processing and distribution centers is sufficient and the spot pressure is large At present, the price of imported soybeans in the above regions has been sold to 2130 yuan / ton, even lower than the import cost price Due to the good weather conditions in the United States, processors continue to be bullish on soybean prices Although the crushing profit has been significantly reduced compared with the previous period, processors still tend to produce at full power, so the soybean meal supply is relatively sufficient At present, the closing price of soybean meal in Shandong and Dalian has dropped to 1900 yuan / ton, nearly 100 yuan lower than two weeks ago Recently, a ship of soybean meal arrived at the port of Guangdong, with a quantity of about 55000 tons The ship was ordered after the soybean meal value-added tax incident, and the sales on the way had been basically completed It is estimated that the arrival of this ship of soybean meal will not cause immediate pressure on the price of soybean meal in Guangdong However, it is reported that two ships of soybean meal arrived in China in the middle of August, and the most likely arrival is in Guangdong With the arrival of imported soybean meal, it is estimated that Guangzhou Soybean meal prices in the East will continue to fall At that time, the competitiveness of Shandong and Dalian soybean meal will be further weakened If the soybean price in the United States does not rise recently, the pace of soybean import will be maintained, the soybean meal market will face internal and external problems, and the price drop will still be inevitable How to position the domestic soybean meal price in October? At present, the CIF price of American soybean No.2 in October is US $201.6/t In addition to the expenses of port miscellaneous and inspection, the cost of arriving at the oil factory is about RMB 2050 / T the cost of processing soybean meal at this price is about RMB 1700 / T in addition to the normal profit and others, the ex factory price of soybean meal should be positioned at about RMB 1800 / T If the U.S soybean price is stable at about $200 / ton for a long time, the domestic soybean meal price will inevitably move closer to the above price At present, the soybean processed by domestic oil plants is basically ordered in June and July, and the cost price to the plant is basically about 2150 yuan / ton According to this price, the factory price of soybean meal should be basically positioned at about 1900 yuan / ton Considering the domestic and foreign problems of soybean meal, if the US soybean price falls below 200 US dollars / ton in two to three weeks, the domestic soybean meal price may further fall, or even fall below the factory cost price If the above situation happens, the whole soybean market will be dominated by short thinking, and the pace of soybean import may slow down At the same time, the forward price of soybean and soybean meal in the futures market may be oversold In January, the soybean futures price will fall below 1950 yuan / ton, and in November, the soybean meal futures price may fall to 1700 yuan / ton Judging from the current soybean meal and soybean oil prices, some oil processing plants have been unprofitable, and small and medium-sized oil plants in Northeast China and Shandong Province have begun to reduce production or stop production In two to three weeks, if the factory price of soybean meal really drops to about 1800 yuan / ton, it will be the last drop before the new bean goes on the market For soybean meal in November, if the futures price really drops to around 1700 yuan / ton, there will be opportunities to buy or long in the futures market U.S No.2 soybean CIF: August shipment: 205.6 U.S dollars / ton, September shipment: 204.9 U.S dollars / ton, October shipment: 201.6 U.S dollars / ton; Guangdong imported soybean meal closing price: 2050-2100 yuan / ton; Shandong Dalian imported soybean closing price: 2130-2140 yuan / ton; Shandong Dalian soybean meal closing price: 1900 yuan / ton; Soybean meal quotation in Dalian futures market in November: 1778 yuan / ton (selling price); u6e (author:)