Reasonable and well-ed? Peking University butcher forecast: after the Mid-Autumn Festival pork fell to 20, people.

Pig prices after nearly half a month of decline adjustment, in recent days to restart the rise, 20 pig prices are crying up, the rise is encouraging.
East China 4 provinces, central China 4 provinces, South China 1 province, North China 1 province, Northeast 3 provinces and southwest 3 provinces have ushered in a substantial increase, including Fujian, Guangdong, Guangxi, Hainan and other regions of the price return to 20 yuan, as well as Chongqing, Sichuan, Zhejiang and other regions forced 20 yuan.
But in the pig prices shouted up, the rise is encouraging, pig farmers are full of confidence, selling meat "celebrity" North University butcher Lu Boxuan said that the highest price of pork in 2020 will appear around the Mid-Autumn Festival, the follow-up will enter the down channel, and all the way down to about 20 yuan, when everyone can afford pork.
for this view, the author thinks half right, half wrong, why say so? Half right: Mid-Autumn pork prices will be the highest price in 2020, although the Mid-Autumn Festival superimposed National Day consumption is not as good as the southern pickled and Spring Festival good, but before and after the Mid-Autumn Festival pork supply and demand contradiction must be the largest, because the Mid-Autumn Festival pig supply is lower, before the pig production capacity can not be released.
half of the error, pork prices will fall to 20 yuan, affordable prices for everyone, although the follow-up pork prices and pig prices will enter the down channel, but pork down to 20 yuan is very difficult.
1, although there has been no outbreak of swine fever for a long time, but this does not mean that swine fever has stabilized, there are still suspected cases around, and even many areas in the south in just three months of production capacity again reduced by a third, which not only affects the current production capacity, but also affects the enthusiasm of subsequent pig farmers.
2, pig production costs increased, according to the normal supply of pork, China's pork prices in about 15 yuan, but now the increase in daily breeding management costs and feed costs, so that the cost of each catty pig increased by 2 yuan, and pork will also increase the cost of about 3 yuan.
According to the author's understanding of the current pig farming market, pork prices will indeed return to the level of 20 yuan, but this time will be relatively long, the author expected the second half of next year pork prices can return to 20 yuan, but after the recent understanding of this period, the author changed his mind, it is expected that pork to 20 yuan will take about 2 years, that is, the second half of 2022 pork prices may be significantly reduced to 20 yuan level.
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