Real estate investment growth slowed to 8.5% in the first quarter, and the New Deal effect has yet to be released

China Paint Network
News: "Real estate industry is a very important industry, its correlation effect is relatively large, one head linked to investment, one head linked to consumption, so to maintain the stable and healthy development of real estate is very important." "On April 15, Sheng Daying, Director of the Department of Integrated Statistics of the National Economy, stated at a press conference on the state of the national economy in the first quarter of 2015.
However, according to the first quarter data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on the same day, a number of indicators of real estate operations show that the property market is still not optimistic, including real estate investment growth rate fell below 10%, commercial housing for sale continued to increase, housing construction area increased.
Sheng said that although the trend of real estate is still in the process of differentiation and adjustment, but the effects of related policies are also constantly emerging, but the appearance of policies need a process.
, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, commercial housing sales area and sales fell further, but the decline narrowed. In the first quarter, commercial housing sales area of 18.254 million square meters, down 9.2% YoY, a decrease of 7.1% from January-February. Sales of commercial housing fell 9.3% to 122.3 billion yuan, a 6.5% decline from January-February.
Real estate investment growth rate fell below 10% for the first time
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first quarter, China's real estate development investment of 166.51 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth rate of 8.5%, this is also the first time that the growth rate of real estate development investment in China fell below 10%, reaching a record low.
same period, infrastructure investment grew by 23.1% and fixed asset investment by 13.5%.
", the depth of real estate adjustment has dragged down GDP, in contrast, infrastructure investment has become an important way to support economic growth. Jin Yongxiang, general manager of Beijing Daye Consulting Co., Ltd., also said that in the context of restricting local borrowing and declining land transfer income, the capital problems of infrastructure have resorted to the PPP model, and now all over the PPP has set off a wave of landing.
real estate investment growth rate of below 10% or will exist for a long time.
Yu Bin, head of the macroeconomic research department of the China National Research Center, said that China's urban housing market pattern has shifted from the past supply and demand to the basic balance of supply and demand and local surplus, the future for a long time, real estate investment growth will be 7%-8% level.
end of March, the area for sale of commercial housing increased by 24.6% year-on-year, the first increase this month after three consecutive months of decline. Commercial housing for sale area of nearly 65,000 units, a new record high.
based on the 2014 commercial housing sales area of 1.21 billion square meters, without taking into account the newly completed area, the national commercial housing storage and sales ratio of 6 months, compared with July 2012 interest rate cut led to investment reversal of this figure is only 3.5 months.
zhu Zhong1, honorary vice president of the China Housing Association, said that under the high inventory, housing enterprises to inventory pressure is very large, the process of going to inventory will affect the enterprise to take land and start the enthusiasm for a long time.
quarter, new construction in real estate fell 18.4% year-on-year, an increase of 0.7 percentage points, while land transactions fell 27.8% to 112.3 billion yuan, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.
" this also shows that by the industry's external environmental impact, housing enterprises lack confidence in the start of construction, the main focus on digesting the stock, withdrawal of funds, which will also lead to a long time, the scale of investment will further shrink. Zhang Dawei, chief analyst at Zhongyuan Real Estate in Beijing, said.
stable property market still has a post
although real estate investment growth rate fell below 10%, but real estate investment accounted for the proportion of the country's fixed asset investment is still as high as 21.5%.
Qin Hong, director of the Policy Research Center of the Ministry of Housing and Construction, also said that real estate is undoubtedly an important industry of the national economy, the real estate industry chain is very long and very highly correlated, so the stable development of the real estate market has a very large role in the stable development of the national economy.
March 30, six ministries, including the Ministry of Housing and Construction, the Ministry of Land and the Central Bank, issued a new policy to stabilize the property market.
In Yu Bin's view, the newly implemented credit and down payment ratio policy will have a positive effect on the growth of real estate sales and appropriately improve investment expectations.
, however, it will take some time for the policy to emerge, and from the first quarter data, the decline in sales of commercial housing has narrowed.
, commercial housing sales area of 18.254 million square meters, down 9.2% year-on-year, a decline of 7.1% from January-February. Sales of commercial housing fell 9.3 percent to 122.3 billion yuan, a 6.5 percent decline from January-February.
in Zhang Dawei's view, the role of real estate in the macro-economy can not be ignored, in the real estate market continued to decline, real estate policy is expected to further relax.
On April 10, the State Council issued a report on the implementation of the "Government Work Report" of the key work departments division of labor, pointed out that the Ministry of Housing and Construction, the Ministry of Finance, the Central Bank and other 15 ministries should adhere to the classification guidance, according to local policies, the implementation of the main responsibility of local governments, support residents to own and improve housing demand, promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.
Zhu Zhongi said that in 2015, the main goal of real estate is to stabilize the housing market, in this context, the policy will tend to be loose, and will be adjusted according to market changes, that is, in order to delay the decline of real estate, the property market toolbox will also sacrifice a number of reserve policies.
Taking Liaoning as an example, Liaoning Province on April 9 issued the "Notice on Supporting Residents' Self-Housing and Improving Housing Demand" that clearly, the municipal, county (city) government is the main body responsible for promoting the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.
Zhang Dawei believes that after the main body of responsibility is clear, coupled with the local economic growth and the demand for land transfer money, all over the implementation of the housing New Deal will also sacrifice a number of incentives for the New Deal.