Raw fish farming is expected to increase this year

Affected by the global epidemic, Vietnam's pangasius imports have been blocked, and the production capacity of foreign processing plants has recovered slowly
.
In the face of the huge demand of the domestic catering consumer market, pangasius fillet and open-back basa fish continue to be out of stock, and the price has soared
.
In the case of insufficient supply of pangasius, many catering enterprises have sought other alternative fish species, such as blackfish (also known as "raw fish"), spotted forktail catfish (also known as "Qingjiang fish"), California sea bass, sea bass, crispy sea bream (also known as "crispy meat tilapia") and other varieties to alleviate the current shortage of supply
.
Raw fish is favored by many parties because of its thick taste, few fish bones, rich nutritional value, high meat yield and relatively stable breeding
.

The development of the raw fish industry in 2022 is better

The data shows that the price of raw fish in 2022 is relatively high compared with the price from 2018 to 2020, but compared with the price of large fish in the same period in 2021, a pound of fish is more than 1 yuan lower, which is lower than the expectations of farmers
.
From the perspective of raw fish prices in 2022, fish prices at the end of 2022 are at a low peak, and the large price gap makes it a little difficult for farmers to accept
.
In addition, in 2022, raw fish will be affected by feed prices, etc.
, and the cost is generally high, with a cost per kilogram of about 7.
5 yuan, which causes differences between each other, resulting in low profits for current farmers
.

Several major raw fish nurseries and feed mills in Guangdong Province reported that in 2022, encouraged by the good market in 2021, farmers are enthusiastic about farming, and the total number of raw fish seedlings in 2022 will be about 5 billion, compared with 4 billion in 2021, an increase of 1 billion year-on-year, an increase of 25%.

It is worth noting that in recent years, the survival rate of the standard rough link of raw fish is generally low, and the survival rate of ponds with good effects can reach 30%, but the survival rate of bad ponds is less than 0.
5%.

Overall, the number of dynasty fish in the pond in 2022 will be between 700 million and 750 million, which is still a lot
higher than in previous years.
The person in charge of a nursery farm in Foshan gave feedback that in 2022, the growth rate of raw fish seedlings in peripheral markets such as Guangdong, East Fujian and Chaoshan in the Pearl River Delta is not small, which is an emerging market
worthy of attention.

At present, the main sales manufacturers of raw fish in the Guangdong market include but are not limited to Haida, Dehai, Wanghai, Yuehai, Tongwei, Yongsheng, Jieda, Hengxing, Aohua, etc.
, of which the top four manufacturers account for more than 80%
of sales.
According to the sales data and market statistics of major feed mills, the raw fish feed capacity of the Guangdong raw fish market in 2022 exceeded 750,000 tons, compared with nearly 600,000 tons in 2021, an increase of more than 150,000 tons, an increase of more than 25%.

On this basis, according to the feed capacity and average material ratio conversion estimates, the total raw fish production in Guangdong Province in 2022 is estimated to be about 550,000 tons, compared with about 450,000 tons in 2021, an increase of 100,000 tons year-on-year, an increase of more than 22%.

From the statistics, it can be seen that 2022 is a year
of great development of the raw fish industry.

According to the feedback and integration of multiple feed mills, the current Guangdong raw fish can still be fed, with a daily weight increase of about
4 million jin.
According to the market capacity, the current material ratio and the current average feeding rate conversion, it can be roughly known that the current raw fish storage in the Guangdong market is between 250,000 tons and 280,000 tons, and overall, the weight of the fish stored in 2022 is higher than the same period
of previous years.

In addition, from the perspective of farmers' enthusiasm for selling fish, affected by the price of raw fish, the current enthusiasm of farmers to produce fish is lower than in previous years
.
According to statistics from the aquaculture market and feed mills, the number of raw fish ponds wintered in Guangdong Province in 2022 increased by more than 30%
year-on-year.

The raw fish market is warming up

Some distributors believe that the raw fish market in 2023 is more optimistic
.
According to statistics, with the gradual opening of the market, the recent raw fish market has begun to "rise"
.
At the end of 2022, the price of Tangtou will increase by 0.
3 yuan to 0.
5 yuan per catty
.
However, it is worth noting that the current market feedback information is that large-sized fish are smoothly delivered, while the small and medium-sized fish market is not ideal, and the future market remains to be seen
.

Overall, most distributors in the market believe that the recent raw fish market is gradually picking up, especially large-sized fish will be getting better and better, although the current small and medium-sized fish are more, the price of temporary increase is small, but according to the feedback of processing plants, in recent times they began to step up the preparation of New Year goods, it is expected that the market will turn better
.

Industry insiders believe that to understand the trend of raw fish changes in 2023, the key depends on the next market conditions and the amount of seedlings in 2023, but the amount of raw fish aquaculture in 2023 will continue to increase, and it is expected that the feed capacity will exceed 1 million tons
in recent years.

In 2022, many people's consumption patterns and living habits have quietly changed, giving birth to various new economic models, and in 2023, market consumption will gradually recover, the raw fish processing industry will become more and more prosperous, and the demand for raw fish prepared dishes cannot be underestimated
.
The data shows that the amount of fish required by the raw fish processing plant at the end of 2022 is almost half of the amount of sunrise fish in Guangdong, with an average of about
1 million jin.
Some distributors said that the amount of fish required by raw fish processing plants will become a large source of demand in the raw fish farming industry in the future, and the price of raw fish will increase
in the future.

In the raw fish industry, enterprises with upstream resources are trying to run through the market, and enterprises with market channel advantages are also stepping up their upstream
layout.
The person in charge of Qingyuan Ronghai Aquaculture Technology Co.
, Ltd.
said that the current raw fish breeding technology is very mature, and the customer's quality and positioning of fish meat are gradually clear, and the raw fish market capacity should grow
steadily in the next few years.
Especially this year, pangasius continued to operate at a high price, which made raw fish have more development possibilities
in the catering side.
In the future, sashimi products will develop into two ports, one is to produce fish fillets with moderate prices and convenient operation for conventional fast food restaurants, group restaurants and mid-range sauerkraut fish shops; The other port needs to tap more added value of sashimi and produce high-end sashimi products for high-end catering
.

Chen Canfeng, chairman of Suzhou Yuehai Food Co.
, Ltd.
, said that the development period of the raw fish industry has passed, and now it is entering the industrial development period
.
For the industry to develop benignly, it is necessary to reorganize the hierarchical structure of the industry, including the market price system and brand system
.
From the outside, to ensure that there are appropriate profits in each link, from the inside, it is necessary to standardize the product system system and build a high brand moat
.
At this stage, pre-made dishes are a vent, and consumer-oriented pre-made dishes should be made and connected with real consumer demand
.
Secondly, aquatic prepared dishes also have value in the future direction of customized dish series
.
For a long time, the raw fish industry used to mainly seek the growth of volume and scale expansion, and so far, it needs some responsible enterprises to speak out and guide the industry, jointly promote the establishment of industry standards, and connect the needs
of all links of the industry.

(Wang Jiayi, comprehensive arrangement)

China Food News(Version 08, January 12, 2023)

(Responsible editor: Wang Jiayi)