Raising a pig makes more than 1,000 yuan? Pig prices break through the important threshold of the game also

Around the Mid-Autumn Festival, boosted by the expectation of increased demand in the peak season, the pig market that has been stable for a long time has risen again
.
KFM Feed Industry Information Network - Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

Around the Mid-Autumn Festival, boosted by the expectation of increased demand in the peak season, the pig market that has been stable for a long time has risen again
.

However, since September, the storage policy has continued to land, which has also restricted the prevention of excessive pig prices to a certain extent, and the game between supply and demand has continued
.
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At present, the theoretical value of the average profit of pig heads under self-breeding and self-raising has exceeded 1,000 yuan, and the pig-food ratio is also in the upper edge
of a reasonable range.
Under the role of continuous supply and price stability of the policy, superimposed market on the impact of secondary fattening and other prejudgments, this winter's pig market may be difficult to appear a sharp rise in the situation
.
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Pig prices are approaching 24 yuan / kg KFM feed industry information network - based on feed, serving animal husbandry

The pig price is approaching 24 yuan / kg The pig price is approaching 24 yuan / kg

The second batch of central pork reserves was launched
on September 18.
According to a press conference held by the National Development and Reform Commission in September, the central pork reserve has been released in two batches totaling 52,700 tons on September 8 and September 18,
respectively.
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According to the number of released and the later release plan, it is expected that the total amount of pork reserves released by the country and various localities in September will be about 200,000 tons, and the number of single-month releases will reach the highest level
in history.
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"In addition to the central reserve meat, there have been arrangements for
storage in many places since September.
Stocking more has a certain impact on the market news surface, and it also has a certain positive effect on the supply side, which is helpful
for stabilizing prices.
For the impact of the recent release of storage on the pig market, Zhuo Chuang analyst Wang Yanan told the Securities Times e company reporter
.
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In addition to the central reserve meat, many places have successively arranged for
storage since September.
Stocking more has a certain impact on the market news surface, and it also has a certain positive effect on the supply side, which is helpful
for stabilizing prices.

From the perspective of the release price, the price of pork reserves in the country and all over the world is lower than the market price
.
The price of some cities in Jiangxi and Anhui is less than 10 yuan per kilogram, and the price of Guangxi, Heilongjiang, Shandong and other places is about 12 yuan per kilogram, which plays an important role in
stabilizing pig and pork prices.
However, boosted by factors such as the peak demand season in the Mid-Autumn Festival, domestic pig prices still rose
slightly before and after the festival.
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Sogou pig network data show that the average price of pigs out of the bar in the country from 22.
9 yuan / kg before the festival rose to break through 23 yuan / kg, with the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday into the end, pig prices appeared to briefly fall in adjustment
.
On September 19, the domestic pig market price rose
again.
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According to the latest monitoring data of China Pig Network, the price of three-yuan pork on September 19 was 24.
02 yuan / kg, which has exceeded the high price of 23.
92 yuan / kg
in early July this year.
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According to the latest monitoring data of China Pig Network, the price of three-yuan pork on September 19 was 24.
02 yuan / kg, which has exceeded the high price of 23.
92 yuan / kg
in early July this year.

Baichuan Yingfu analysis also shows that the average price of live pigs in the country on September 19 was 23.
8 yuan / kg, an increase of 1.
93%.

At present, it is a seasonal growth period of consumption, the weather is cool, the school is supported, the breeding end is optimistic about the future market, and the market is still
reluctant to sell.
In the early stage, because of the high temperature weather, some pigs in the southern region were out of the pen in advance, and then the number of northern pigs transported to the south will be increased, thus supporting the price of pigs to rise to a higher height
.
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Zhuo Chuang data shows that on September 19, the average price of foreign ternary transactions reached 23.
98 yuan / kg, approaching 24 yuan / kg
.
At present, the heat of secondary fattening in many places in the north has heated up again, and the demand for small and medium-sized pigs, or for pigs with small weight but reaching the standard of
the pen has increased significantly.
Talking about the recent driving force for pig prices to rise, Wang Yanan said
.
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According to the "Improving the Government Pork Reserve Adjustment Mechanism to Do a Good Job in Ensuring Supply and Stabilizing Prices in the Pork Market", the early warning and grading of excessive rising situations is graded
.
When the pig grain price ratio is higher than 9:1, the National Development and Reform Commission will issue a three-level early warning, and according to different early warning situations, timely launch of reserve meat release or increase temporary storage and other response measures
at the national and local levels.
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However, Wang Yanan said that the current pig food price ratio has not yet reached a value
of 9:1.
The monitoring data of Sogou Pig Network also shows that as of September 15, the pig-to-food ratio was at 8:1.
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In order to ensure the smooth operation of pig prices, the policy side guarantees the supply of the policy
.
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The National Development and Reform Commission said on the 19th that considering that the current pig price is already at a high level, the average profit of pig breeding heads is also significantly higher than the historical average, if the price rises further, it may lead to an excessive increase in production capacity and a sharp decline in prices in the later period, which is not conducive to the long-term healthy development of
the industry.
The National Development and Reform Commission and relevant departments will continue to pay close attention to the dynamics of the pig market, combined with the market supply and demand and price situation, continue to release the central pork reserve in batches, and supervise and guide all localities to release pork reserves synchronously, and if necessary, further increase the intensity of delivery, and strengthen market supervision and expected guidance to promote the smooth operation
of the market and prices.
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The National Development and Reform Commission said on the 19th that considering that the current pig price is already at a high level, the average profit of pig breeding heads is also significantly higher than the historical average, if the price rises further, it may lead to an excessive increase in production capacity and a sharp decline in prices in the later period, which is not conducive to the long-term healthy development of
the industry.
The National Development and Reform Commission and relevant departments will continue to pay close attention to the dynamics of the pig market, combined with the market supply and demand and price situation, continue to release the central pork reserve in batches, and supervise and guide all localities to release pork reserves synchronously, and if necessary, further increase the intensity of delivery, and strengthen market supervision and expected guidance to promote the smooth operation
of the market and prices.

Self-breeding and self-raising heads are profitable to break through 1,000 KFM feed industry information network - based on feed, serving animal husbandry

The profit of self-propagating self-cultivation head exceeded 1,000 self-propagating self-cultivation heads

On September 19, the main soybean meal contract 2301 in the domestic futures market closed at 4,000 yuan / ton, after reaching 4,079 yuan / ton on September 13, once again approaching the high point
of the year.
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In recent years, affected by the continuous high price of feed raw materials such as soybean meal and corn, feed enterprises have raised the price of finished materials for many rounds, and the cost pressure of downstream breeding ends has increased
.
KFM Feed Industry Information Network - Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

However, under the current trend of stable pig prices, the profitability of the breeding end has been continuously improving
.
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"After entering September, the theoretical profit of the monitored head has exceeded 1,000 yuan / head
.
" On September 19, the theoretical profit value of pig self-breeding and self-breeding has reached 1129.
39 yuan / head, but due to the high price of corn and soybean meal, the pig-to-food ratio has not yet exceeded 9: 1, and the high cost pressure at the breeding end continues
.
Wang Yanan said
.
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Sogou pig monitoring data shows that from June 2022, under the condition of self-breeding and self-raising, the breeding profit of each fat pig has remained above 300 yuan / head, and the pig market has begun to turn losses into profits
.
As of September 15, 2022, the breeding profit of each fat pig under the condition of self-breeding and self-raising is basically more than
700 yuan / head.
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On September 15, the average price of lean pigs in the country was 23.
21 yuan / kg, and the average price of ordinary pork white strips was 34.
5 yuan / kg
.
The cost line level of the whole industry is generally 17-18 yuan / kg, so the actual average profit of a fat pig of about 110 kg is about 500-700 yuan / head
.
Compared with the previous pig cycle, the profit level at this time belongs to the medium profit level, which is not too high and does not belong to the low profit
.
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The analysis shows that under normal circumstances, the price difference between wool pigs and pig white strips is more reasonable
at 8-10 yuan / kg.
Under this price difference, the slaughtering enterprise has a certain profit, the price of pork will not be too high, the consumption of pork is normal, and it is not difficult for the slaughtering enterprise to collect pigs
.
But at present, the price difference between live pig prices and pork prices is about 11 yuan / kg, the hair white difference is high, from the perspective of market pig collection and consumption, one end is that farmers continue to equivalent, one end is that slaughtering enterprises have certain difficulties in collecting pigs, and the superimposed consumption end is not smooth, so the price difference between live pigs and pork has increased
.
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The sharp rise in the peak season is difficult to reproduce the KFM feed industry information network - based on feed, serving livestock

It is difficult to reproduce the sharp rise in the peak season

For the trend of the pig market in the later period, the National Development and Reform Commission also said on the 19th that the current stock of breeding sows, newborn piglets and fattening pigs has continued to rise, coupled with the acceleration of the growth rate of fattening pigs after the weather turns cool, and the frozen meat inventory of enterprises is at a high level, and most of them will supply the market during the year, so the supply of pig pork market in the future period of time is guaranteed, and the price is difficult to continue to rise
sharply.
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For the trend of the pig market in the later period, the National Development and Reform Commission also said on the 19th that the current stock of breeding sows, newborn piglets and fattening pigs has continued to rise, coupled with the acceleration of the growth rate of fattening pigs after the weather turns cool, and the frozen meat inventory of enterprises is at a high level, and most of them will supply the market during the year, so the supply of pig pork market in the future period of time is guaranteed, and the price is difficult to continue to rise
sharply.

Feng Yonghui, an analyst at Soopig Network, analyzed that from the early stage of the fertile sow production capacity data released by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, although from July last year to April this year, the production capacity of fertile sows was reduced to a certain extent, but the overall absolute number was still more than 41 million heads, and the supply of pigs in the later period was guaranteed, and pig prices did not have a substantial rise basis
.
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However, he also believes that the next autumn and winter are coming, which is a relatively prosperous time of the year for pork consumption, so there may be room for a slight increase in prices, but the space will not be too large
.
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Wang Yanan believes that December every year is the month
with the largest demand for live pigs in the year except for the Spring Festival.
Due to the optimistic situation in December, the current market secondary fattening situation is obvious, if the proportion of secondary fattening is more, or concentrated in this winter's peak demand season, so as to have a certain pressure
on the market.
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He said that the increase in market demand before the Spring Festival is expected to be obvious
.
In addition, the proportion of free-range farmers in the north is relatively high, and due to the low market in the early stage, there are more retail households that abandon breeding and reduce production capacity, and the supply situation is not as expected in the early stage
.
It is expected that the market will be relatively strong this winter, but the upside is not very large
.
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Soochow futures research report shows that after the Mid-Autumn Festival, terminal demand turned worse, slaughtering enterprises slaughtered volume fell significantly, superimposed by the recent frozen meat dumping and the development and Reform Commission meeting to ensure supply adjustment and other policy impacts, pig prices under pressure, but the market is optimistic about the future market expectations, secondary fattening entry enthusiasm is higher, and the pig price has formed a supporting role
.
It is expected that pig prices will show a trend of high volatility in the short term, from a medium- and long-term perspective, the fourth quarter demand season will form a new boost to pig prices, but at the same time, we need to be vigilant against the large number of pigs formed by the early stage of the second breeding
.
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Minmetals Futures also analyzed that the terminal demand is sluggish, the acceptance of high prices is low, and after the price reduction, it faces the bottom of the breeding end, and the overall price fluctuation
under the supply and demand game.
In the middle line, the amount of stocking out of the column in September may remain low, and the breeding end is optimistic about the background of the future market, and the pressure fence and the second breeding still have a interception effect, so the short-term exploration space of the spot is not large
.
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