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prepared by Rabobank.
Global seafood trade flows have firmly established themselves as the world's most traded animal protein, with commercial value 3.
6 times that of beef, 5 times that of pork, and 8 times that of poultry, with global seafood trade flows increasing by another US$13 billion (€13.
4 billion) in 2021 to a new high
of US$164 billion (€169 billion).
"The seafood trade has gone through one of
the most volatile periods in recent history.
More uncertainty is expected as the macro economy is likely to be sluggish," Rabobank said
in its report.
"However, we remain hopeful that the recent winners – salmon and shrimp – will continue to grow
in the coming years.
" These two farmed species have proven their superiority during COVID and have benefited from
the subsequent increase in demand.
the most volatile periods in recent history.
More uncertainty is expected as the macro economy is likely to be sluggish," Rabobank said
in its report.
"However, we remain hopeful that the recent winners – salmon and shrimp – will continue to grow
in the coming years.
" These two farmed species have proven their superiority during COVID and have benefited from
the subsequent increase in demand.
Rabobank found that the salmon industry has been accelerating since 2016
, driven by growing demand for healthy and convenient proteins.
In the pre-pandemic years from 2013 to 2019, salmon trade increased by $4.
8 billion (€4.
9 billion), with the EU27/UK and the US increasing by US$1.
9 billion (€2 billion) and US$1.
8 billion (€1.
9 billion),
respectively.
In 2020, the overall trade volume fell by 8.
4% year-on-year, but resumed growth
in 2021.
, driven by growing demand for healthy and convenient proteins.
In the pre-pandemic years from 2013 to 2019, salmon trade increased by $4.
8 billion (€4.
9 billion), with the EU27/UK and the US increasing by US$1.
9 billion (€2 billion) and US$1.
8 billion (€1.
9 billion),
respectively.
In 2020, the overall trade volume fell by 8.
4% year-on-year, but resumed growth
in 2021.
Last year, the EU27 and the United Kingdom remained the world's largest consumers of salmon, accounting for 41%
of total imports.
At the same time, the region's imports rose by 14%, the highest year-on-year increase
since 2016.
That same year, the U.
S.
market experienced an all-time high, with salmon imports increasing to 505571 tons (MT), and the value of those imports increased by 27 percent, the highest growth rate
in a decade.
of total imports.
At the same time, the region's imports rose by 14%, the highest year-on-year increase
since 2016.
That same year, the U.
S.
market experienced an all-time high, with salmon imports increasing to 505571 tons (MT), and the value of those imports increased by 27 percent, the highest growth rate
in a decade.
Novel Sharma, seafood analyst at Rabobank, who co-authored the report, said the value of the salmon trade post-pandemic was driven
by high prices brought on by increased demand and constrained supply growth.
Sharma also said the expansion of sales "is essential for continued growth"
.
by high prices brought on by increased demand and constrained supply growth.
Sharma also said the expansion of sales "is essential for continued growth"
.
Meanwhile, global trade in shrimp has increased by US$7.
6 billion (€7.
8 billion) since 2013, helped by high demand and the ability to
rapidly expand its capacity.
In 2021, it was valued at $24 billion (€24.
7 billion), making it the most traded seafood variety
.
The United States and China are the two main shrimp importers, accounting for a combined 1 million tonnes of production
.
6 billion (€7.
8 billion) since 2013, helped by high demand and the ability to
rapidly expand its capacity.
In 2021, it was valued at $24 billion (€24.
7 billion), making it the most traded seafood variety
.
The United States and China are the two main shrimp importers, accounting for a combined 1 million tonnes of production
.
The shrimp trade contracted by 4.
8% between 2019 and 2020, but rebounded in 2021, with global trading volumes and values increasing by 14% and 19%
respectively.
Shrimp imports in the US market were US$8 billion (€8.
2 billion), up 24.
2% from 2020, and Chinese imports worth US$4.
8 billion (€4.
9 billion), still below pre-pandemic levels
.
8% between 2019 and 2020, but rebounded in 2021, with global trading volumes and values increasing by 14% and 19%
respectively.
Shrimp imports in the US market were US$8 billion (€8.
2 billion), up 24.
2% from 2020, and Chinese imports worth US$4.
8 billion (€4.
9 billion), still below pre-pandemic levels
.
"In 2021, demand for shrimp benefited from the reopening of the economy and increased consumption of food services, complemented by high retail consumption," the report said
.
.
However, Rabobank has since observed an "inflection point" where prices fell
sharply in the first half of 2022.
Prices have been falling since the second quarter of 2022, while feed, freight and energy costs remain high, impacting farmers' profitability
.
sharply in the first half of 2022.
Prices have been falling since the second quarter of 2022, while feed, freight and energy costs remain high, impacting farmers' profitability
.
"This drop in demand could lead to a short-term decline in trade," Sharma said
.
"Nevertheless, we still believe in the growth of
the shrimp industry.
The industry is supported by strong long-term demand, giving shrimp its status
as a healthy and convenient seafood product with universal appeal.
.
"Nevertheless, we still believe in the growth of
the shrimp industry.
The industry is supported by strong long-term demand, giving shrimp its status
as a healthy and convenient seafood product with universal appeal.
Rabobank said the U.
S.
seafood market has fully recovered from the COVID-19 pandemic and is now the world's fastest-growing seafood import market, with imports worth $28 billion (€28.
9 billion)
last year.
This demand is driven by healthy and sustainability-conscious consumers, especially among millennials and baby boomers, who have more than $200 billion (€206.
1 billion) in purchasing power and the latter's population of 77 million people
.
S.
seafood market has fully recovered from the COVID-19 pandemic and is now the world's fastest-growing seafood import market, with imports worth $28 billion (€28.
9 billion)
last year.
This demand is driven by healthy and sustainability-conscious consumers, especially among millennials and baby boomers, who have more than $200 billion (€206.
1 billion) in purchasing power and the latter's population of 77 million people
.
Sharma said U.
S.
seafood trade "recovered more than expected"
in 2021 due to continued household consumption and a strong recovery in the restaurant industry.
"These factors have led to peaks in imports of many species and an increase in the market share of imports of high-value species," Sharma said
.
"We expect long-term seafood demand in the U.
S.
to continue to rise
.
S.
seafood trade "recovered more than expected"
in 2021 due to continued household consumption and a strong recovery in the restaurant industry.
"These factors have led to peaks in imports of many species and an increase in the market share of imports of high-value species," Sharma said
.
"We expect long-term seafood demand in the U.
S.
to continue to rise
.
In the short term, however, Sharma said import values will fall from their 2021 peak and normalize over the next two to three years, largely due to the looming recession environment and high inflation, with high prices alienating a part of consumers
.
However, Rabobank found that the growth in household consumption since the pandemic, combined with a decline in consumer spending behavior, could ease the decline
.
"We expect consumers to turn more to retail channels to compensate for the decline in food service," it said
.
.
However, Rabobank found that the growth in household consumption since the pandemic, combined with a decline in consumer spending behavior, could ease the decline
.
"We expect consumers to turn more to retail channels to compensate for the decline in food service," it said
.
At the same time, the Chinese market is gradually returning to pre-pandemic import levels
.
.
Between 2013 and 2019, the total value of its seafood imports grew from about US$8 billion (€8.
2 billion) to US$18 billion (€18.
5 billion), driven by quality species
such as shrimp, crab and salmon.
In the first year of COVID, these imports shrank by 17.
5% compared to 2019, but then rebounded by 15.
6%
in 2021.
2 billion) to US$18 billion (€18.
5 billion), driven by quality species
such as shrimp, crab and salmon.
In the first year of COVID, these imports shrank by 17.
5% compared to 2019, but then rebounded by 15.
6%
in 2021.
At US$17 billion (€17.
5 billion) in value terms, China is the third highest in the world, while its 2 million tonnes were the second highest
in 2021.
5 billion) in value terms, China is the third highest in the world, while its 2 million tonnes were the second highest
in 2021.
China's Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs recently announced that the National Fisheries Development 14th Five-Year Plan aims to increase its aquaculture production to meet domestic demand, including recycling and offshore aquaculture, but Rabobank said it does not expect a significant increase
in production in the short term.
in production in the short term.
"As a result, we expect a limited impact on trade flows," Sharma said
.
"For now, COVID-19 restrictions will continue to impact the market
.
However, we expect these measures to be temporary and imports should return to normal levels
in the long run.
.
"For now, COVID-19 restrictions will continue to impact the market
.
However, we expect these measures to be temporary and imports should return to normal levels
in the long run.
Rabobank said the seafood trade "has endured one of the most volatile periods in recent history" and expects more uncertainty
as the macro economy is likely to decline.
However, it expects salmon and shrimp trade to continue to grow as they have proven themselves during the pandemic and benefited from
subsequent demand growth.
as the macro economy is likely to decline.
However, it expects salmon and shrimp trade to continue to grow as they have proven themselves during the pandemic and benefited from
subsequent demand growth.
It also believes that the United States and China still "have significant potential to continue to shape global seafood trade flows and will be key drivers in
the near and medium term.
" ”
the near and medium term.
" ”
