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Rabobank: Global shrimp production will increase by 10% in 2021, and China's import demand has not fully recovered

 Last Update: 2021-11-11
 Source: Internet
 Author: User

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Entering the fourth quarter of 2021, the global trade pattern of farmed vannamei shrimp has gradually become clear.
Who will eventually become the number one exporter in India and Ecuador ?

During the annual meeting of the IFFO Marine Raw Materials Agency, Rabobank senior analyst Gorjan Nikolik predicted that, according to conservative estimates, the annual output this year will increase by about 10%, and the supply will continue to increase in 2022 and 2023
.

“For Ecuador, 2021 will be an extraordinary year.
Since January, export volume and export prices have continued to rise
.
As of July, Ecuador’s output increased by 16% year-on-year, and its export value increased by 22% year-on-year.
The annual export growth rate will exceed 18%
.
" Nikolik said
.

Rabobank believes that Ecuador's greatest success is not the increase in production, but the elimination of dependence on the Chinese market and its entry into the US value-added product market
.

"Ecuador influx of shrimp within a few months in Europe and the United States, the European Union imported providers typically purchase deep-processing products, Ecuador manufacturers showed rapid adaptability
and now Chinese market recovery, Ecuador has a firm in Europe and the United States Heel
.
" Nikolik said that since the beginning of this year, the price of medium-sized shrimp products has risen from $3.
2/kg to over $5/kg, and the high price is expected to continue until 2022
.

　　"In India, despite the dilemma of the new crown epidemic, rising costs, and hurricane disasters, Indian shrimp exports have increased by as much as 37%.
This not only covers the loss in 2020, but also exceeds 2019.

Can India surpass this year? Ecuador, regaining its top export position, is very much worth looking forward to!"

　　Nikolik predicts that the output of India and Ecuador this year are both in the range of 740,000-800,000 tons.
India still dominates the US market.
Prices of medium and large-sized products are firm.
30-40% of exports are shelled and refined shrimp, which is very suitable for the United States.
In the retail market, Chinese purchases are also rebounding
.

　　Traditionally, the global import shrimp market is dominated by the three major markets of China, the United States, and Europe.
The total import volume accounts for 70% of the total global trade, or 3 million tons
.

　　Since the beginning of this year, U.
S.
demand has exploded, the catering market has returned, the new retail industry has risen, and import volumes and prices have risen
.
As of July, the value of U.
S.
shrimp imports increased by 27% year-on-year, and Urner Barry's white shrimp prices indicated that they exceeded 2018 and 2019 levels
.

　　In Europe, shrimp import demand is slowly recovering.
As of the end of July, the import volume of frozen warm water shrimp in the EU and the UK increased by 14.
7% and 14.
3% respectively
.

　　China's demand has not yet recovered to its pre-epidemic level.
As of the end of August, China's shrimp imports have fallen by 17.
9% and 15.
6% year-on-year, respectively
.

　　Nikolik said, "The good news is that China's imports will gradually recover from the second half of 2021.
The import situation in August was much better than the same period in 2020.
The
bad news is that imports are still below the level of 2019, and China has not yet recovered to its pre-epidemic demand.
, Which is still lower than the same period in 2020 as of now
.
"

Breeding export

　　Rabobank believes that Ecuador's greatest success is not the increase in production, but the elimination of dependence on the Chinese market and its entry into the US value-added product market
.

China

import

　　In Europe, shrimp import demand is slowly recovering.
As of the end of July, the import volume of frozen warm water shrimp in the EU and the UK increased by 14.
7% and 14.
3% respectively
.

　　China's demand has not yet recovered to its pre-epidemic level.
As of the end of August, China's shrimp imports have fallen by 17.
9% and 15.
6% year-on-year, respectively
.

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