Prospects of world rapeseed in 2002 / 03

Introduction: demand recovered and rapeseed inventory decreased in 2002 / 03 At present, the new market year is just beginning It is difficult to predict what will happen in the new agricultural year However, we still try to look into the future and see what will happen in the new year of farming Now it seems that, despite the increase of rapeseed production, the inventory of rapeseed will gradually decrease In the end, this will support the price in 2002 / 03, but the price also depends on the trend of the oilseed sector This report analyzes the market situation of 11 major rapeseed producing countries, and analyzes the supply and demand of the world's major rapeseed countries from three aspects of supply, demand and inventory I the opening inventory is low, which limits the total supply growth At the beginning of this market year, the opening inventory level is very low, only about 1.5 million tons, which is significantly lower than the opening inventory level of 2.2 million tons in 2001 / 02 Since the beginning of 1998 / 99 inventory reached a low level of 895000 tons, there has never been such a low beginning of this year In 2002 / 03, rapeseed production is expected to recover, with an increase of nearly 6% to 34.8 million tons This is also the highest level since the production reached a record 38.7 million tons in 1999 / 00 We expect production to increase in major rapeseed producing countries, including China, Canada, the European Union and Australia But it's worth noting that we've spent five years on average to produce this kind of output In some cases, it may appear too optimistic or not optimistic enough In particular, the situation in Canada is noteworthy because it is extremely dry at present Unless there is abundant rainfall in spring, the annual yield may be lower than the average Imports are expected to fall this year As production rebounded in the major producing countries, imports to those countries decreased As a result, we expect a decrease in total imports Total supply is expected to increase by 3% to 41.5 million tons In spite of the increase in production, low beginning stocks and imports have limited the supply of rapeseed worldwide As a result, given the increase in production, the supply is not as large as expected 2 Consumption began to rebound slightly The consumption of world rapeseed is expected to increase by 3% over the previous year, reaching 40.3 million tons, mainly due to the increase of squeezing Rapeseed crushing in 11 major countries is expected to increase to 30.7 million tons in 2002 / 03, compared with 30.1 million tons in 2001 / 02 The increase in squeezing is mainly due to the increase in squeezing in the European Union, the United States, China and Canada The biggest change in 2002 / 03 is that China is expected to start consuming more vegetable oil, including rapeseed oil This will allow countries such as the European Union and Canada to increase the number of pressed rapeseed China is expected to squeeze more rapeseed as domestic production continues to rise The U.S expects squeezing to also resume growth as canola oil prices are more competitive than soybean oil The consumption of feed, seed and waste also increased slightly, 5% higher than the previous year, reaching 2.4 million tons Over time, this estimate will begin to decline as more and more countries will begin to plant genetically modified rapeseed Exports also increased, by 607000 tons over the previous year, to 6.8 million tons, which is relatively low compared with the five-year average of 8.1 million tons As the area of seeded rapeseed increases and the demand for rapeseed oil increases, the opportunities for different countries to increase exports will also increase In particular, we expect EU exports to Australia to increase On the Canadian side, we actually expect a slight decline in exports, which is due to the increased competition in the EU and the increase in domestic crushing Therefore, domestic crushing plants are also competing with Chinese rapeseed exporters But we expect that the consumption of rapeseed will be slightly lower than that of last year's 450000 tons, only 425000 tons The drop is due to a drop in India's rapeseed production, which will return to a more normal level this year after last year's higher than average 3 The end of term stock of world rapeseed is expected to decrease by almost 12% This year, the end of term stock of Canadian rapeseed will continue to decrease, and the increase of demand will be greater than the increase of supply We currently expect inventories in the first 11 major countries to fall by almost 1.3 million tons, down almost 12% from the previous year The ratio of inventory to consumption is also decreasing, from 3.8% in the previous year to 3.2% in 2002 / 03 This is lower than the five-year average of 4.9%.