Prospects of China's corn export in 2002

Introduction: Abstract: China's corn export situation is grim after China's accession to the WTO, but the main factor determining the future corn export should be the national policy orientation On the one hand, China's exit from the export market, while Brazil's and South Africa's corn exports are often very unstable, so the corn supply in the future will be completely dependent on the United States and Argentina, and the reduction of supply will lead to the increase of corn price; on the other hand, China will expand the import of corn and the international market's demand for corn This will also lead to the increase of corn price But for China, the decrease in exports and the possible increase in imports mean that the supply of corn in the domestic market will increase, which will weaken the domestic corn price China's corn export has always been an important event in China's grain market It is not only related to the development of corn market, but also has an important and far-reaching significance in promoting the rapid development of domestic economy, enhancing the relationship between China and the world and so on After two consecutive years of harvest in 1998 and 1999, China has met domestic demand At the same time, the government actively organized the export of corn At the end of 1999, the government decided to subsidize the export of corn Since then, China's corn has entered the international market at a low price and replaced the United States as the largest supplier of South Korea and Malaysia Meanwhile, it has a certain share in the Japanese market However, two years later, China's corn export form faced new problems China officially joined in on December 11, 2001 With China's accession to the WTO, China has promised to cancel the export subsidy of corn, which means that the export price of corn in China will rise from 105 US dollars / ton to 149 US dollars / ton At present, the FOB price of corn in the United States is only more than 90 US dollars, because this price is unacceptable to international buyers In the future, China's corn export will be in a severe form, and the market will be in the future How to develop China's corn export market has become the focus of our attention In 2000, China exported 10.5 million tons of corn under the government's high subsidies and active organizations, which reached the highest level in China's corn export history Among them, the export to South Korea reached 6.2 million tons, and the export to Malaysia was 2.1 million tons, while the annual import of corn from South Korea and Malaysia was 8.5 million tons and 2.4 million tons, respectively China's corn is in these two markets The occupancy rate of the two cities reached 70% and 87% respectively Since this year, China's corn export has been continuously rising due to the domestic price, and the competitiveness with the international market has been weakened The export volume has a significant decline compared with the same period last year According to the customs statistics, China's corn export in January October was 4.86 million tons, of which 2.73 million tons were exported to South Korea and 1.03 million tons were exported to Malaysia Although the share of China's corn in both markets was higher than that of last year It has declined, but still accounts for a higher proportion In addition, in the Japanese market, the export volume in the first ten months of this year was 350000 tons, three times that of the whole year in 2000 In the past two years, China has been able to export so much corn mainly because of government subsidies The subsidies of up to $44 per ton make China's corn export price very competitive in the international market However, after China's accession to the WTO, the high subsidy will be cancelled, which means that the export price of domestic corn will be increased by 44 US dollars / ton on the current basis (105 US dollars / ton) Even though the export price of China's corn will not rise to such a high point, the price after the cancellation of the subsidy will certainly be much higher than the current price, so the export competitiveness of China's corn will be lost Corn exports are bound to decline If the government takes other support measures to transform the high export subsidies, then the export form is another matter Of course, in the current form, the export quantity of corn in China will be reduced After China's accession to the world trade organization, according to China's WTO commitments, China's import tariff quota of corn in 2002 was 5.85 million tons, which increased to 7.2 million tons by 2004; in 2002, the proportion of state-owned enterprises was 68%, the proportion of private enterprises was 32%, and the proportion of private enterprises would increase to 40% by 2004 That is to say, if the state grants the quota in full, 1.87 million tons of corn will be imported into the hands of private enterprises in 2002 Once the state policy allows and the commercial conditions are appropriate, these private enterprises will import again Therefore, in theory, corn import in the future is inevitable However, in 2002 alone, the prospect of China's corn import is not optimistic At present, China's corn supply and demand are basically balanced Due to the abundant original inventory, there will be no shortage of corn supply The domestic supply-demand relationship will still be oversupplied Moreover, in 2001 / 02, China's corn output also rebounded, which will to some extent prevent the import of corn Based on the above analysis, after China's accession to the WTO, the international corn market may lead to price rise in two aspects: on the one hand, China's exit from the export market, while Brazil's and South Africa's corn exports are often very unstable, so the corn supply in the future will be completely dependent on the United States and Argentina, and the reduction of supply will lead to the increase of corn price; on the other hand, China will expand the corn market The international market demand for corn is rising, which will also lead to the increase of corn price But for China, the decrease in exports and the possible increase in imports mean that the supply of corn in the domestic market will increase, which will weaken the domestic corn price With China's corn exports falling this year, South Korea, the biggest buyer of Chinese corn, has begun to source corn to the United States and Brazil and Argentina in South America Brazil was originally a corn importing country, but this year corn has achieved an unprecedented harvest, so it has become a net corn exporting country and exported corn to South Korea for the first time But Brazil is not expected to be a long-term corn exporter as corn production is expected to decline next year Argentina is a big corn exporter, but this year's flooding in Argentina has led to the decline of corn planting area There is no doubt that corn production will also decrease, and the export of corn will also decline In this way, South Korea will increase its dependence on American corn, and the United States will once again become the largest corn supplier of South Korea as it did two years ago Malaysia has become the second largest buyer of corn in China due to various factors: first, China's corn is cheap; second, China's corn transportation mode is flexible, and the quantity of shipment can be large or small, which is suitable for unloading in ports of some small islands in Malaysia; third, compared with America and Argentina, China's corn transportation time is short; fourth, China's jade The water content of rice is relatively low, but the yellow pigment is relatively high, which is popular with local chicken farms The fourth factor is that American corn is not available, which is also the main reason why Korean local livestock owners do not like American corn very much But Argentine corn has this factor, so since this year, Malaysia has imported a lot of Argentine corn, and most of the Argentine corn rejected by Indonesia in the first half of this year was shipped to Malaysia If China's export supply is significantly reduced, Malaysia is most likely to turn to Argentina to import corn Malaysia's import from Thailand will continue because Thailand, like China, can be transported by boat, which is very convenient for Malaysian importers As for the Japanese market, China's share of the market is not large, but the price of corn in the market has always been relatively high After China's accession to the WTO, China may also export a small amount of edible corn to it On the whole, China's corn export will face new challenges after China's accession to the WTO The quantity of corn export is not optimistic However, the main factor determining the future corn export should be the national policy orientation We can't speculate on the future national policies and guidelines In terms of the current development, the quantity of domestic corn export in the future will be significantly reduced.