Prospects of animal husbandry in 2002

Introduction: 2002 is the first year of China's accession to the WTO The reduction of tariff will bring a large number of foreign animal husbandry products into China's market, which is a severe challenge to China's traditional high-cost and low-quality animal husbandry From the price point of view, the first one that has been greatly impacted is the broiler industry The first one is the high cost of broiler feeding in China The second one is that green trade barriers are binding the export of broiler products Compared with the broiler industry, China's soybean oil, such as pig, cattle, sheep, rabbit, has a great price advantage, especially the domestic beef and mutton, which can be said to be the standard green food If the quality is further improved, the competitiveness is great; due to the habit of fresh food, long-distance transportation of eggs is not only high in freight, but also not easy to keep fresh, so China's layer industry still has a large market From the perspective of domestic consumption, pork consumption will maintain an absolute growth, but the proportion in the whole meat consumption will continue to decline; the demand for beef and mutton will rise, and the consumption will increase to a certain extent; the proportion of poultry consumption will continue to rise rapidly With the change of consumption habits caused by the improvement of people's living standards, the consumption of all kinds of refined and deep processed segment cooling meat, small package meat, semi-finished meat, cooling meat, cooked meat products and convenience products, functional food, leisure food and tourism food as raw materials will increase significantly At the same time, the experts made a specific prediction on the animal husbandry varieties in 2002: Broiler: hope to be placed in Japan It is believed that the fate of chicken production in 2002 depends on whether it can enter the Japanese market It can be said that the quality of broiler production in China is closely related to the export situation, because the production cost of Broiler in China is higher than that in the world At present, the country with the lowest production cost of Broiler in the world is the United States The cost of feeding and processing is about 30% lower than that of China, followed by Thailand, China and Brazil, and the European Union is also lower than that of China Therefore, China's broilers not only can't enter the above countries, but also with the reduction of tariff, the low-cost American chicken leg will impact the Chinese market, because its price is 1 / 3 of Chinese chicken leg But at the same time, some people pointed out that with the role of "green trade barrier", China's chicken market still has potential in Southeast Asia, South Korea, Japan and African markets In particular, on December 20, 2001, China and Japan reached an agreement on agricultural trade disputes, and the Sino Japanese trade war gradually cooled China's cheap chicken products are still very attractive to Japan Therefore, if the chicken products of China enter the Japanese market smoothly, the broiler market this year is still very promising It is suggested that the development of China's broiler industry should not only focus on export, but also on the research of domestic broiler market, and vigorously develop high-quality local chicken breeds to meet domestic consumption demand Laying hens: the way out is to reduce production Some people think that China's egg industry has entered a period of relative surplus after a long-term development In addition, there are no more ways to be afraid of consumption, and the deep processing and development are not effective The situation of egg surplus has been hard to break From the perspective of consumption mode, egg consumption is still dominated by fresh eggs Even if it comes to deep processing, it is only a temporary solution to the problem of surplus, and the consumption market potential of deep processing products is not great Of course, the solution to fresh eggs is to expand exports According to statistics, China's annual output of eggs is 20 million tons, ranking first in the world, accounting for 43% of the world's total output, but the annual export volume is only about 50000 tons Therefore, it is suggested that in addition to increasing the development of the international market, the production of domestic layers should be reduced Pig: hybrid market is good From the situation of pig production in 2001, it can be seen that China's pig stock is basically stable, and the proportion of sows in stock is still on the high side, maintaining at the level of more than 8% throughout the year According to the price analysis, in December 2001, the purchase price of pigs fluctuated between 5.4-5.6 yuan / kg It is expected that there will be no big difference in the price in the first half of this year From the perspective of pig breeds, the market of ternary hybrid pigs or matching line pigs tends to be wide, especially in the southern market, the basic requirement is lean meat pigs, and the local pigs have basically no market However, the northern market is also decreasing Compared with the ternary hybrid pig, the price of native pig is 1.0-1.2 yuan / kg lower Some people think that due to the low price of pig in China, it is estimated that foreign pork will not have much impact on the domestic market this year Herbivores: there is great hope After China's accession to the WTO, the advantages of animal husbandry in China are mainly reflected in the herbivores First, the price of herbivores in China is lower than that in other countries Second, mad cow disease is still prevalent in the world, while China is still a pure land From the situation of animal husbandry in 2001, we can see that raising cattle and sheep is still a better way to get rich this year The fattening of crossbred cattle, the feeding of cows and the feeding of meat sheep are all good projects Due to the large market gap, the tight price of high-quality dairy cattle and hybrid fattening cattle will not change Meat rabbit and Rex Rabbit are also promising herbivores after China's accession to the WTO Rabbit meat in China has a large market in European market, especially since the outbreak of BSE in Europe, beef consumption has declined The consumption of rabbit meat increased From the price point of view, after entering December 2001, Rex rabbit skin price has rebounded, and meat rabbit price has rebounded due to the pull of export It is estimated that this year's situation is OK Special care: it's better to be cautious Although many multimedia reports are beneficial to special care after China's accession to the WTO, in fact, many special care projects have no future in the foreign market, and the market space is very small Therefore, relevant people suggest that there should be no fluke mentality and blind growth of special care Of course, it is safer to properly develop meat pigeons, pheasants, black bone chickens and other projects As for rare animals such as muskrats, it is better not to set foot in them (author:) share to feed Weibo share to: