Prospects for winter wheat in 2002

Introduction: Kevin Marcus, agricultural meteorologist, the planting of Winter Wheat in the United States began at the best time in years, which covered up some of the problems that wheat is emerging in the rest of the world in September Now, due to the problems of hard red winter wheat and soft red winter wheat in the United States this month, the market began to pay attention to the problems of global wheat, which are now threatening the area of 2002 wheat and the per unit yield potential The following is a summary of the major hot spots [United States]: the rainfall in October so far is characterized by rainfall in some places and no rainfall in some places The lack of rainfall in the southwest third of the durum wheat region, including southwest Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas and Southeast Colorado, has resulted in poor weather growth for recent seeding Overall crop conditions and seeding progress are better than last year, but have been declining in the past two weeks, with little rain expected by the end of October Those areas with poor growth are more sensitive to the winter freeze in the next few months In the soft red winter wheat region, there has been too much rainfall this month, and the seeding progress has been slow In the case of heavy rainfall, seeding may lead to poor or uneven emergence Cold weather later this week will continue to cause delays in seeding and growth, but no significant frost damage is expected The unit yield of winter wheat will be more affected by the water content supply in spring next year, but the poor development in autumn means that timely water content in spring will be more critical for wheat, because if the wheat roots are not good, then when the temperature warms and the spring growth starts to be active, the wheat cannot resist the long-term drought Despite these problems, the sown area of wheat in the United States is slightly higher than last year, because the conditions for autumn sowing in the southern plain are better, and the conditions for winter dormancy are also better than last year [China]: the weather in the North China Plain was dry in September and lasted until October, which slowed down the sowing and seedling emergence In recent years, it is very common for the North China plain to have autumn drought, with the exception of last autumn, which resulted in the lower sowing area than the intended one The rainfall in the southwest of North China Plain has improved recently, but in the northeast, the weather is still very dry, and it is expected that there will be little improvement If China's wheat harvest is not good for the third consecutive year, then China's import demand will soar [Europe]: this week, the rainy weather in September reappeared in the northwest of Europe It is expected to move eastward this week, including Germany The weather from mid September to mid October is an ideal seeding weather for Northern Europe, but the seeding progress is one or two weeks behind, and further delay may occur this week Some of the intended planting areas will not be planted into winter wheat, on the contrary, spring wheat with lower yield per unit area will be planted next spring The European Union's wheat production decreased by 10 million tons in 2001 Whether there was a recovery growth in 2002 is now in question [former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe]: in September, Poland, Romania, Ukraine and Russia saw very rainy weather in the Volga River Valley, which delayed winter wheat sowing Since the beginning of October, there has been little or no rainfall, so seeding has progressed rapidly But the growth of wheat is worse than last year This leads to a reduction in yield potential per unit area and a reduction in harvest area The wheat production of this area is very large in 2001, and it will be difficult to return to its glory in 2002 [Middle East]: starting from the dry weather this month, there is a delay in sowing from southern Turkey to Iran and other regions in the early part of this year There is still time for rainfall in the region (until early December) and it is still possible that the potential for production will be good next year [India]: in September, the rainy season rainfall in northern India left early, which led to the early demand for irrigation and poor wheat growth in dry land In winter, rainfall is needed in time to prevent the reduction of production last year Last year's production cut was 7 million tons [Argentina]: there was a lot of rainfall in September, and it lasted until October, leading to worries about disease and wheat quality If rainy weather continues into November, production potential could decline by more than half a million tons, as predicted by the U.S Department of agriculture [summary]: there are numerous problems this month, which have a negative impact on the supply of wheat in 2002 The world wheat sown area is expected to decrease slightly If autumn weather is favorable, but the moisture content is too high, it will limit the increase of sown area Colleagues, the poor development of wheat stem before the winter dormancy period will further reduce the unit yield level when the weather is unfavorable from the end of winter to spring As it is still early in the growing season, many unknown factors will be taken into account in next year's production However, due to the tight supply of wheat in the world in 2001, if there is another supply problem of wheat in 2002, then we are not far from the inventory level that led to the sharp rise of wheat prices in 1995.