Prospect of layer industry in the first half of this year

Introduction: 1 Feed price in the first half of 2002: it may be stable or slightly decreased, and the possibility of rising is unlikely The reasons are as follows: there is a trend of price reduction in southern provinces, they are not eager to buy and look forward to import; the second autumn grain is about to go on the market, and they are waiting for the price to fall Third, the situation of animal husbandry has not improved, which leads to the decrease of corn demand and the unlikely increase of corn price Of course, stable corn prices are good for the laying industry We need to be vigilant and pay attention to the production adjustment in the first half of the year It is predicted that corn prices in the South will probably fall again, so we should be prepared for importing corn The price of foreign grain market has changed a lot The price difference of the same market can be 10% - 20% in one month Enterprises need to monitor the price trend of the international market dynamically and purchase cautiously 2 Protein feed price in the first half of 2002: the rising area of soybean meal price is mainly in the southwest inland area Soybean meal will continue to be regulated by the international market, and the price will remain stable and will not rise From the perspective of laying industry, the resource situation is optimistic Of course, we should pay attention to the trend of the international market and study the impact on the laying industry It is predicted that there will be little change in the first half of the year 3 In the first half of 2002, the price of eggs continued to be depressed: it was basically in a trough If the price of corn no longer rose, it is possible for laying hens to maintain a low interest rate Forecast the price from the profit situation: at present, no matter in the countryside or in the enterprises, they are in the state of loss, and there is no enthusiasm to stimulate the production of laying hens, but the price and profit trend in 2002 may rise later It is predicted that the price of eggs may be between 5.16 yuan / kg and 5.49 yuan / kg in the near future Each province needs to analyze its own situation, control its stock and prevent overproduction 4 Pay attention to the price of eggs: now the egg companies are in the next profit period after 22 weeks of laying From now on, egg sales and hatching should be in the peak season with the highest price We predict that the profit may turn into profit in the later half of 2002, but when will it change? Which province will change when? It also needs to be analyzed in combination with its own situation 5 The price of fresh eggs in provinces and regions will be differentiated: in Xinjiang, Guangdong, Fujian, Zhejiang, Shanghai and Shaanxi, the low price areas are decreasing in the past year, and it is expected that some provinces and regions will be differentiated into high price areas in the later half of 2002 Some prices may not be very high, but may exceed the break even point It is worth noting that the low price provinces are the major production provinces of our country, and are the commodity areas for export In addition, it is good for commodity circulation, but extremely bad for local layer production These provinces and regions should pay attention to developing market, adjusting structure, improving technology and reducing stock as appropriate 6 In the first half of 2002, the profitability of eggs was still very low, and it was hoped that there would be some changes in the later period: at present, there are 21 provinces with losses in laying hens, accounting for 70% of the total in China, which is really shocking The situation is expected to remain serious in the first half of 2002 If the volatility period is 32 to 34 months, theoretically there will be 4 to 6 months of losses in the future It is predicted that profits may be transferred in the later stage Therefore, producers should pay close attention to the analysis of the situation, especially in combination with the characteristics of the province, when reducing the stock and eliminating laying hens We need to keep vigilance, deal with the market fluctuations in a planned way, and adjust the number of our own stocks in time to obtain stable profits 7 In the first half of 2002, the profit location of eggs was still dominated by low interest: now some provinces and regions are in low interest, with an average price ratio of 4.313 These provinces are hard to make money anyway In particular, Shandong, Henan and Anhui in Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong, Guangxi and Huanghuaihai have kept low profits for a year and a half, so it is difficult to get out of the dilemma In the first half of 2002, according to the law of fluctuation, there is hope to change, especially some will be divided out Enterprises need to pay attention to the possible turnaround in the late first half of the year and arrange their own production layout Guizhou, Yunnan, Chongqing, Sichuan and other southwest provinces may enter the high profit area 8 Although the production of laying hens originated from the city, the signs of urban production shrinkage will be further intensified: therefore, the city should pay attention to the adjustment of structure and transfer industry, and pay attention to the adjustment of "sunset" industrial transfer and property right structure In some cities, production has changed its types and developed its own advantages General production has been transferred to low-cost rural areas However, the management and trade of laying hens, including marketing, product processing, breeding, import and export, and other high-tech parts, still have the advantages of capital, technology, market and organization Foreign enterprises have been able to stand firm in China's market for many years, but they can't replace them now, let alone domestic enterprises