Prospect of domestic corn price trend in the first half of 2002

Introduction: Recently, according to the statistical data of the national grain and oil information center, the central delivery price of medium-sized corn in Changchun area of northern Jilin is 1070-1080 yuan / ton, the central transaction price is 1050-1060 yuan / ton, the delivery price in Eastern Jilin area is 1050-1060 yuan / ton, and the central transaction price is 1040-1050 yuan / ton The average ex warehouse price of medium-sized corn in Harbin, Heilongjiang Province is 1040-1050 yuan / ton, and the lowest price is 1030 yuan / ton At present, the local grain department has sufficient corn supply, and in the near future, more corn will be transported from Qiqihar, Jiamusi and Suihua to Harbin station and surrounding areas The average closing price of corn in Dalian port is 1150-1160 yuan / ton, and the centralized closing price is 1150-1155 yuan / ton At present, there is a large stock of corn in Dalian and its surrounding areas, which is mainly in the hands of dealers Qinhuangdao Port offers 1080-1100 yuan / ton for corn delivery, and 1080-1090 yuan / ton for centralized delivery The spot price of corn in Huangpu port and Xingang Port of southern Guangdong is 1240-1250 yuan / ton, and the centralized transaction price is 1245 yuan / ton; the centralized transaction price of corn in Shenzhen port is 1250 yuan / ton; the centralized transaction price of corn in Fuzhou and Xiamen is 1270-1280 yuan / ton After this festival, the domestic corn market maintains a stable price trend This year is the first year of China's accession to the WTO Although the opportunities and challenges brought by China's accession to the WTO have been discussed repeatedly, we do not really feel its advantages and disadvantages in reality at this time Because China's corn market plays an important role in the international market and plays a role in promoting it After that, there is a certain inhibition effect hidden, so it is difficult to predict the impact of China's accession to the WTO on the domestic corn price In this regard, the author, while excluding the impact of accession to the WTO on the market price, looks forward to the domestic corn price trend in the first half of 2002 The specific situation is as follows: As in previous years, after the new corn was listed in North China and Huanghuai area, the export capacity of corn in North China was greatly weakened Most of the domestic regions went to North China and Huanghuai area to purchase grain, with a large number of self-sale and export shipments The available quantity of real estate corn can only be maintained to March April of the second year Since the acquisition of new corn in Northeast China will start in the middle and late November, it will start in November From March to April of the year, the export quantity of corn in Northeast China will be affected by the centralized acquisition and remain at a low level During this period, the relatively low purchase price of corn in Guannei and the short transportation distance with the main selling area in the South will also restrain the export of corn in Northeast China It is predicted that during February to March 2002, when corn prices in North China and Huang Huai Region rose, corn purchase in Northeast China will still be in the peak period At this time, it is difficult to increase the quantity of foreign transportation, so corn prices in the customs will rebound as a whole It is predicted that during March April 2002, when the price of corn rose in East China and South China, although the peak of corn purchase in Northeast China was basically over, due to the high water content of corn, drying and drying of tide grain will become the focus of work of northeast grain department at this time, and the quantity of outward transportation is still difficult to increase significantly, so the price of corn in South China will rebound as a whole After the overall rebound of corn prices in Guannei and South China, the market prices in Northeast China will finally rebound It is expected that during April May 2002, the export quantity of corn in Northeast China will begin to increase Under the situation that the corn price in Inner Shaanxi and southern China has risen as a whole, the export price and port closing price of corn in Northeast China will rise accordingly Generally speaking, although the price recovery of corn in Northeast China may occur at the latest among the three major production and marketing regions, only when the price of corn in Northeast China rises, will the price of corn in Inner Shaanxi and southern China finally rise, thus completing the whole process of domestic corn price recovery It is expected that from June to July 2001, the import quantity of corn in China will begin to increase for the first time after China's accession to the WTO Since then, the change of domestic corn price trend will begin to be more affected by the international market According to the comprehensive analysis, the price rise of corn in China is expected to continue, but now it is different from the past 2002 is the first year of China's accession to the WTO Due to the cancellation of high subsidies, the export is facing difficulties, while the import is facing high quotas Compared with each other, China's import volume will increase significantly, which will make the situation of oversupply in the domestic corn market even worse It is hard to avoid the pressure on the domestic market, which makes us have a lot of uncertainty in the market forecast Summary: on the premise that the imported corn has no substantial pressure on the market and the emergency does not affect the trend of domestic corn market, the price rise of corn is expected to continue until May June this year, but due to the impact of WTO on the market atmosphere, the price rise will not be too large On the contrary, after the Spring Festival, the demand for corn will decline as in previous years, and the supporting effect on market price will be weakened After the festival, corn price is expected to fall slightly (author:) share to feed Weibo share to: