Prospect of domestic corn market -- rising trend tends to be stable

Introduction: July 4 News: at present, the price rise of domestic corn market tends to be stable, and the possibility of corn price rising in the later period is weak The specific analysis is as follows: first of all, the influence effect of production situation: This year, the corn planting situation in China is decreasing and increasing, that is to say, the corn planting in Northeast China is slightly decreasing, while that in North China and Huanghuai region is slightly increasing According to the statistics of the national grain and oil information center, the total corn planting area in China will reach 24.5 million hectares this year, an increase of 1% year on year, including 2.4 million hectares in Jilin Province, a decrease of 210000 hectares year on year; 2.0 million hectares in Heilongjiang Province 250000 ha, a year-on-year decrease of 210000 ha; 2.25 million ha, a year-on-year increase of 120000 HA in Heilongjiang Province; 1.5 million ha, a year-on-year decrease of 70000 HA in Liaoning Province; and the same in Inner Mongolia The area of corn in Guannei will increase slightly year on year, including 2.6 million hectares in Hebei, 2.4 million hectares in Shandong, 2.3 million hectares in Hebei, 830000 hectares in Shanxi, 450000 hectares in Jiangsu and 600000 hectares in Anhui As the current soil moisture and rainfall conditions in China are better than that in the previous year, it is expected that the per unit yield of corn in Northeast China, North China and Huanghuai region will be close to or higher than that in the previous year The national average per unit yield is expected to reach 4.9 tons / ha, an increase of 4% over the previous year The total yield of corn is expected to be 120 million tons, an increase of 5.91 million tons, an increase of 5% over the previous year, which will be the increase of corn yield in China after 2001 Continuous, has a positive role in stabilizing the corn market Secondly, the effect of grain auction is as follows: As in the same period of previous years, at this time, Shandong, Hebei, Henan and other places no longer have corn to supply all kinds of grain enterprises and feed breeding industry, which has been unable to meet the demand of feed enterprises in the sales area The sales area will increase the purchase quantity of corn in the northeast The northeast corn began to dominate the market in the sales area, but the Northeast purchase and sales enterprises did not show obvious reluctance to sell, but accumulated During this period, we strive for the promotion and stock reduction, seize the favorable opportunity of the green and yellow corn in Guannei, grasp the initiative to sell at a better price, and quickly digest the original huge inventory in Northeast China Although a large number of corn has been exported and sold in the northeast area in the early stage, among which more than 3 million tons of corn have been traded in the bidding fair, and the inventory pressure has been alleviated to some extent, but the accumulated corn surplus in the previous years still makes the inventory huge, which still limits the effective increase of corn market price At present, the competitive trading of corn in Northeast China in May is in the field delivery period In the short term, the enterprises in the southern sales area will still digest this batch of corn, which is in conflict with the rising market of corn market at this stage In the middle of July, Jilin Province, the production area, will hold another auction fair of grain for sale The varieties sold by auction are the same quality corn produced before 2000 and the second and third class rice produced in 1999-2001 The auction volume is expected to be about 2 million tons, including 1.8 million tons of corn and 200000 tons of rice This will enhance the wait-and-see mentality of demand enterprises, and the spot market will again face pressure and challenges Thirdly, the impact of import and export market: Export: from January to May 2002, China's corn exports totaled 3.23 million tons, down about 1.79 million tons from the same period last year In May, China exported 270000 tons of corn, 590000 tons less than that in April About 200000 tons less than the same period last year In May, the number of corn exports decreased significantly, which was mainly affected by foot-and-mouth disease in South Korea, the main corn exporter of China, which led to the stagnation of corn procurement in South Korea In June, the FOB price of corn in China was 96-97 US dollars per ton The export price of corn in China was significantly lower than that in the United States, which maintained its attraction to the main buyers of corn in China such as South Korea and Japan Recently, there are more and more countries seeking to import corn from China After coming out of the shadow of foot-and-mouth disease in May, South Korea, a regular customer of Chinese corn, has accelerated the purchase of corn and increased the purchase of edible corn At present, China's corn export has the advantage of price and quality With the active support of national policies, the export speed will definitely accelerate, and the export quantity is likely to exceed last year, which will promote the formation of corn price In terms of import: at present, China has not imported corn this year In the case of the issuance of import quota, the import quantity of corn has not increased, but one corn has not been imported The key reason lies in that the price of corn in China is lower than that of foreign corn, and the enterprises controlling import quota are unable to import, while the southern purchasing enterprises have affected the domestic corn collection in the process of gain and loss Buying enthusiasm, trading enterprises in the price and market dim demand, dare not buy corn rashly However, once the price of domestic corn is higher than that of foreign corn, the trading enterprises will not hesitate to import corn, which will have a restraining effect on the rise of corn price Thirdly, the effect of international corn price: according to the data of the U.S Department of agriculture, the rainfall in the corn planting belt of the U.S in May June led to the decrease of corn planting area and per unit yield, which made the U.S Department of agriculture predict that the corn output of the U.S in 2002 will reach 245 million tons, an increase of 4 million tons only last year, a decrease of 450000 tons compared with the prediction in May It is estimated that the demand for corn feed in South Korea will be 6.9 million tons in 2002 / 03, and China will export 6 million tons of corn this year Recently, the export price of corn FOB in the United States continues to rise The FOB price of Meiwan port in July was about 93 US dollars / ton, about 1.5-2 US dollars / ton higher than that in the first ten days of June, which is equivalent to 1140-1150 yuan / ton of Chinese port price This will promote the continuous growth of China's corn export quantity and drive the domestic corn price to rise However, as the price is basically the same as that of China's southern port, this relatively limits the space for corn price to continue to rise On the whole, China's corn export speed will continue to accelerate, the mentality of grain sales in Northeast China will gradually strengthen, and the market price is likely to rise further However, under the influence of grain auction sales in various regions, the increase of corn price will be limited It is expected that the domestic corn price will rise slightly in July, and then in August and September, the sale of stale grain in the country and all over the country is likely to reach a climax again In order to complete certain import quotas, some corn may be imported, and the market price may fall slightly (author:) share to feed Weibo share to: