Prospect of corn harvest in Southern Hemisphere

Introduction: Kevin Marcus, agricultural meteorologist, due to the continuous rain in South America and Argentina, it is expected that corn planting area will be reduced and soybean production will be expanded Economic factors are also a factor that leads to broadcasting Although rain in South Africa is good for crop growth, forecasts at the beginning of the season show that production will be lower than last year, when it was cut by drought last year Seasonal weather forecast Brazil and Argentina seasonal weather forecast can be judged by similar year approximation method, such as ocean temperature and related climate characteristics The similar years in 2001 / 02 were 1996 / 971990 / 911981 / 821980 / 81 and 1978 / 79 All of these periods are not affected by El Nino or La Nina, but some are signs of an El Nino year At present, there is a bit of El Nino climate performance, which is expected to develop further in early 2002 The main features of the weather in the next season are expected to be the most variable From December to February, the rainfall in most corn growing areas in Brazil will be normal or a little higher than normal, while that in Argentina will be normal or lower than normal But in the south of Argentina and Brazil, there is likely to be a dry climate during crop pollination October is a good start for corn growing areas in South Africa However, the weather report said that from late November to March, there will be continuous dry weather, which is a typical feature of similar years During this period, the rainfall is only half of the normal The impact on the harvest so far, in some areas of Argentina and southern Brazil, as shown in the figure below, in most of these areas, the rainfall exceeds the normal amount, which slows down the sowing speed, and it is expected that many people will plant corn instead of soybeans The near-term outlook also supports this view, as heavy rain is expected this weekend As shown in the figure below, due to sufficient soil moisture, it will promote early growth, but it is also possible to leave the crop with no roots Whether in Brazil or Argentina, there is not much problem with production in similar years By mid to late January, when the crop enters the critical stage of pollination, Argentina may have a period of dry weather, which will threaten the crop yield According to the survey of similar annual production, Argentina's production in similar years varies greatly, and the production may be very high or very low compared with the previous year However, Brazil's annual output tends to be average or higher year by year The main feature of corn production in southern Africa in similar years is that compared with the previous year, the output is low or very low, 5% - 50% lower than the previous year Last year's crop was cut because of drought, but this season is likely to be worse Corn production expected Brazil planting area (million ha) per unit yield (ton / HA) output (million ton) export (million ton) 1998 / 99 12.1 2.68 32.4 * 0 1999 / 00 12.5 2.53 31.6 * 0.5 2000 / 01 14.0 2.93 41.0 * 4.0 2001 / 02 forecast 12.7 2.75 34.9 0.5 * USDA forecast Argentina's planting area (million hectares) per unit yield (tons / HA) output (million tons) export (million tons) 1998 / 99 2.6 5.18 13.5 * 7.9 1999 / 00 3.1 5.55 17.2 * 12.0 2000 / 01 2.8 5.54 15.5 * 10.5 2001 / 02 forecast 2.6 5.50 14.3 9.5 * USDA forecast South Africa's planting area (million hectares) per unit yield (tons / HA) output (million tons) export (million tons) 1998 / 99 3.6 2.16 7.7 * 0.7 1999 / 00 3.8 2.77 10.6 * 1.5 2000 / 01 3.2 2.33 7.5 * 0.9 2001 / 02 forecast 3.5 2.00 7.0 * 0.5 * USDA forecast conclusion In the southern hemisphere, the corn production and planting area decreased, the trend was low, the yield decreased, and the export decreased In the next few months, U.S corn exports will improve and prices are expected to come out of the downturn, given the reduction of corn production in China this year (author:) share to feed Weibo share to: