Prospect of American pig

Introduction: Despite Tuesday's tragedy leading to market turmoil, the thin pig futures market still opened on Thursday, closed higher on October, and other contracts fell several points on the same day As part of the mandatory price reporting rules, there are still five weeks left for pig sales scheduling data The five week data is relatively close to what the University of Missouri and nppc showed in a January study with meat packers Data used by USDA for different sales arrangements between farmers and meat processors are different from those used in our January study, so there is no direct comparability However, we tried our best to adapt to their data in two studies The results are as follows: in January, the pig sales research data is 54.2%, and in August 2001, the USDA data is 60.4% In January, the fixed price linked to the futures or breeding price was 21.9%, and in August, it was 15.3% Cash or cash on delivery was 17.3% in January and 17.1% in August On the positive side of August's data, the proportion of cash or cod payments in the market appears to be stabilizing This is very different from what happened in 1999-2000 For example, cash or cash on delivery accounted for almost 36 per cent of the market in January 1999 It fell to 26% in January 2000 and about 17% in 2001 The annual drop is 9-10 percentage points We don't know the exact reason, but we believe that the proportion of cash or cash on delivery in the market dropped to about 30-31 percentage points in August 1999, and 21-22 percentage points in August 2000 compared with 26 percentage points in January 2000 The market share of COD or cash is expected to be less than 15% - 17% If the decline exceeds this level, the market is expected to be more volatile I hope this week's tragedy will not affect the development of pig industry But turbulence is always accompanied by more risks It is believed that as of September 1, the number of feeders is 99% of that of 2000, and the number of feeders on the market is 99% Pig farmers continue to use our data to limit the number of pigs The proportion of sows slaughtered in June, July and August this year is almost the same as last year If the market volume on September 1 is 99% of that in 2000, the slaughtering volume in the fourth quarter of 2001 will be 1% - 2% lower than that of last year If the slaughtering volume remains at this level and the demand for pigs remains strong, the price of pigs may rise 30 points from the low level this autumn This week's spot pig prices were flat from last week The top pig prices in the target market on Friday were: Peoria $45, Sao Paulo $46.50, Sioux fall $46.50, and Missouri inland $44.50 (author:) share to feed Weibo share to: