Professor Wang Ruzhu's team from Shanghai Jiaotong University: The role of heat pumps in China's 2060 carbon neutrality goal is underestimated

Recently, the energy-air-water ITEWA innovation team led by Professor Wang Ruzhu of Shanghai Jiaotong University published "The Underestimated Role of the Heat Pump in Achieving China's Goal of Carbon Neutrality by in the Views & Comments column of Engineering, a journal in the field of comprehensive engineering and the main journal of the Chinese Academy of Engineering 2060"
.
This paper sorts out the current and future potential application fields of medium and low temperature heating in civil and industrial sectors, summarizes the latest progress of heat pump technology and equipment in civil, industrial and other sectors from the level of technology to system application, and puts forward the further optimization development direction of heat pumps.
Combined with the future power emission reduction trend, the carbon reduction potential
of heat pumps is analyzed.
The first author of the paper is Yan Hongzhi, a doctoral student at the Institute of Refrigeration and Cryogenic Engineering of Shanghai Jiaotong University, and the corresponding author is Professor
Wang Ruzhu.

China's 2060 carbon neutral heat pump development technology roadmap

China's energy structure is dominated by fossil energy such as coal, and achieving carbon neutrality by 2060 faces many severe challenges
.
However, many current low-carbon pathway studies focus more on the energy supply side such as grid carbon emission reduction and zero-carbon fuels, rather than the demand side
such as heating and cooling in buildings and industries.
Considering that terminal cooling and heating energy consumption accounts for 50% of the total energy consumption of the whole society, low-carbon heating supply is an important part of the realization of carbon neutrality goals, and it should be equipped with effective clean heating alternatives and strategies
.

This paper summarizes the potential application fields and technical progress of heat pumps in medium and low temperature heat supply, and the progress of heat pump technology, and explores the carbon emission reduction potential and promotion path
of heat pumps.
The article analyzes that China's thermal energy demand in the final energy consumption should account for more than 41%, of which the proportion of medium and low temperature heat energy demand below 150 °C should exceed 23%, it is expected that China's future energy consumption in the construction field will further increase, and with the industrial upgrading and structural adjustment of China's industrial sector, the proportion of medium and low temperature thermal energy demand will be further increased
.
Research shows that more attention should be paid to the demand for medium and low temperatures, especially in industrial sectors
where carbon reduction is widely considered difficult.

(a) China's final energy demand in 2020; (b) the temperature range of heat consumption in buildings and industry; (c) heat-related end-use energy requirements; (d) China's final energy demand forecast

(a) The working principle of the heat pump (b) Summary of the performance of the heat pump; (c) Direction of heat pump development

In terms of advances in heat pump technology, existing industrial heat pumps can provide up to 168°C and heat up to 18 MW.

Heat pumps can meet almost all building heat needs, as well as 40% of industrial process heat needs
.
The article summarizes the existing cases and points out the application advantages
of heat pumps in the construction and industrial sectors.
In order to better promote heat pump applications, heat pumps need to be further developed in
terms of low-GWP working media, high-efficiency core components such as compressors and heat exchangers, and thermal system cycle optimization.
In short, considering the huge heating market and diversified heating demand, China needs to learn extensively from international experience, use suitable heat pump systems in different scenarios, and promote the development of
low-carbon heating practicably.

Predict equivalent CO based on heat pump carbon emission intensity2Emission reduction potential

Despite the obvious carbon reduction advantages and long-term carbon reduction potential of heat pumps, the current market share of heat pumps is still very low, due to both technical and economic aspects and social policy factors
.
In terms of technical and economic issues, the initial investment in heat pumps is usually several times that of other heating facilities, and the high initial investment leads to a long
payback period.
On social policy issues, carbon reduction in the power system is currently receiving far more attention than electrification of heating facilities, and recent advances in heat pumps have not been fully incorporated into most studies
on carbon reduction pathways.
It should be fully recognized that the operating life of heating facilities is usually designed for 15 or even 20 years, so it is necessary to grasp the only few heating equipment replacement windows before the carbon neutrality node in 2060 to further promote the use of
heat pumps.

Given the huge potential for carbon reduction that heat pumps can bring, a clear heat pump-oriented roadmap
is urgently needed.
China has a vast territory, complex natural conditions, and different levels of economic development, which requires the development of heat pump promotion strategies
from place to place.
In principle, when waste heat is available, use waste heat pumps
as much as possible.
When there is a lack of waste heat resources, natural heat source (water, ground, air) heat pump can be used, for example, air source heat pump steam boiler can achieve a thermal energy grade improvement of more than 100 degrees and achieve a COP heating coefficient
of 1.
5-2.
0.
In terms of regional promotion strategies, southern and southeastern China have a mild climate, relatively high natural gas prices, and more than 70% of industrial output value, and air-source heat pump boiler heat pumps can be promoted
first in these regions.
This pilot demonstration project can further start the heat pump scale production process, thereby reducing the investment cost
of heat pumps.

The promotion of the huge carbon emission reduction potential of heat pumps requires further improvement of technical level and continuous and reasonable policy incentives
.
Considering the core needs of customers for product reliability and economic priority, the demand for profitability of enterprises, and the pursuit of carbon neutrality goals and comprehensive social benefits by policy makers, the promotion of heat pumps requires the concerted efforts
of governments, manufacturers, researchers and users.
The research team hopes to bring attention to the role of heat pumps from being severely underestimated, especially as heat pumps can solve most of building heating needs and more than 40% of industrial heat energy needs
.
In the future scenario of high proportion of renewable electricity, heat pumps can achieve nearly 2 billion tons of CO2The reduction of emissions reached nearly 20%
of China's total carbon emissions in 2019.
Heat pumps can play an important role
in China's goal of achieving carbon neutrality by 2060.

The ITEWA team led by Professor Wang Ruzhu is committed to solving cutting-edge basic scientific problems and key technologies in the fields of energy, water and air, aiming to realize overall solutions at the material-device-system level through interdisciplinary interdisciplinarity, and promote breakthroughs in related fields, in recent years in Joule, Energy & Environmental Science, Advanced Material, Angewandte Chemie-International Edition, Nature Communication and other journals published a series of interdisciplinary cross-papers
.

Link to the paper: