Problems and suggestions of soybean industry in China (12.11)

According to the data of OA show ('918 '), the processing capacity of soybean in China has been nearly 25 million tons at present, and there is a trend of continuous expansion Compared with the current demand of soybean processing in China, it is obvious that the demand for soybean processing is growing too fast The analysis and study of this phenomenon will be helpful to optimize the distribution of grain and oil industry, deepen the adjustment of industry and product structure MRP 1 Production and import of major oil plants in China According to the latest data, the output of soybeans in China was 15-15.5 million tons in the year of 00 / 01 and 14.3 million tons in the year of 99 / 00 According to the data of customs, China imported 10.1 million tons of soybeans in the year of 99 / 00, almost all of which were used for oil extraction The oil world predicted that China would import 9.6 million tons of soybeans in the year of 00 / 01 This year, China has achieved a historic high yield of 10.59 million tons of rapeseed and 3.85 million tons of imported rapeseed MRP 2 Soybean processing capacity in China Due to the intensified competition in the industry, some oil plants processing rapeseed in the South have been refitted into soybean production lines in succession, and some of them have also added soybean processing lines In order to seize the soybean meal market in the south, some large grain enterprises in the north have also competed to build factories in the coastal areas With the reform and opening up, the huge domestic market has also attracted a number of foreign businessmen to set up factories in China by joint venture or sole investment, which has so far Many large oil plants have been built According to the data, the crushing capacity of domestic soybean has reached 24-25 million MRP III impact of soybean processing capacity surplus In recent years, the number of edible soybeans in China has increased by 150000 tons every year It is estimated that the consumption of edible soybeans this year will be about 7 million tons It can be estimated that the amount of soybeans squeezed in 1999 / 00 will be about 17 million tons, while the processing capacity of soybeans will be 25 million tons, more than 7 million tons With the accession to the world trade, the import of oil will increase, on the contrary, the import of oil will probably shrink, and the processing capacity of rapeseed will also increase It is also possible to continue to transform part of it into soybean processing capacity The surplus of soybean processing capacity may bring the following effects: 1 Because of the surplus of soybean processing capacity, the processing profit will decrease, and the operating rate will be insufficient in some areas, forming idle equipment, reducing the use efficiency of equipment 2 In order to obtain processing profits, even to meet the requirements of construction, the oil factory blindly imported soybeans, resulting in the low price of oil and meal products, and the formation of soybean backlog At the end of September this year, there was a large backlog of soybeans and soybean meal in ports, which is the result of this move, which has attracted high-level attention; 3 Affected the enthusiasm of soybean production of farmers, which is not conducive to the development of agriculture in China, and also increased the dependence on the international market MRP 4 Thinking caused by the surplus of soybean processing capacity 1 Enhancing the anti risk ability of processing industry At the end of May this year, the relevant departments issued documents on Exemption of value-added tax on imported soybean meal, which caused fierce debate and panic in the industry Due to the aging equipment and low strength of most of China's processing enterprises, if the soybean meal value-added tax is exempted, it is bound to cause a large influx of imported soybean meal, which will have a huge impact on the domestic oil extraction industry, and most of the oil plants may be closed down In this case, the state suspended the implementation of this document, but this is only a delay, and the entry is imminent, and the challenge is inevitable At present, we should limit the low-level repeated construction and prevent the blind expansion of soybean processing capacity Domestic processing enterprises can only deepen the reform and strengthen the alliance to consolidate the foundation and enhance the ability of risk resistance 2 More domestic soybeans are used Due to the suitable climate this year, the soybean quality in Northeast China is better and the yield is also high It is understood that at present, the water content of newly listed soybeans in Heilongjiang is generally below 14.5%, the oil content is 16-17%, and the high content is up to 18% Compared with the soybeans in the United States, there is not much difference Therefore, in terms of economic benefits, the benefits of processing imported oil are not great, especially when the price of soybean oil and rapeseed oil is low, the price difference is even smaller It is estimated that according to the current price, the price difference between domestic and foreign soybeans is less than 100 yuan / ton, which has been greatly reduced compared with the price difference of about 150 yuan in the past In this case, domestic soybeans should be used as much as possible to reduce the impact on the domestic market 3 Actively develop soybean production At present, China's soybean demand is about 23 million tons Compared with China's annual output of 14-15 million tons, there is a big gap Especially with the improvement of living standards, the demand for soybean will still grow In addition to proper import, we should put the development of soybean production in an important position At present, the country has established the policy of using bioengineering to solve the future agricultural problems It is necessary to speed up the improvement and popularization of varieties, expand the planting area of soybeans in the suitable planting areas, and use scientific management technology to reduce the planting cost so as to improve the self-sufficiency rate and international competitiveness of soybeans and form a virtuous circle MRP (author:)