Price trend of domestic corn purchase market this year

Introduction: with the approaching of autumn harvest, the price trend of domestic corn purchase market this year has not only become the focus of attention of all parties in the market At present, although a small number of new corn has been listed in Guannei production area, from the listing situation of new corn, its purchase price is significantly higher than that of the same period last year, and the purchase progress is slow, with little pressure on the market Because the later stage is in the harvest period which is relatively sensitive to the information, the changes of the yield information and policy will directly affect the business strategy of the corn purchase and sale enterprises, and also affect the corn market acquisition situation this autumn So in the new market situation this year, what characteristics will the domestic corn purchase market present? How will its price be deduced? In the face of these market focus issues, based on the current corn market situation, the author makes a brief analysis and forecast on the domestic corn acquisition market situation this year Personal views are for your reference only The weather is in good condition, and the corn production in the new season is expected to have a good harvest Since the beginning of autumn, the weather conditions in the main corn producing areas in China are better, which greatly alleviates the adverse effects of corn growth after the beginning of spring At present, the growth of corn is good, and the prediction of yield reduction is loose On the contrary, the report of yield improvement is increasing In September, there has been no severe frost in the Northeast production area, and the crops have been protected from damage It is expected that corn production this year will set a historical record, which obviously exceeds the previous expectation of the market Taking Jilin Province as an example, corn has entered the maturity stage According to the forecast of the meteorological department, the temperature is slightly higher from September 19 to September 30, and the precipitation is slightly less The first frost adjustment occurs at the beginning of October, and the frost period is about one week later than the normal year Such weather conditions will make the maturity of corn very good, and the water content will be significantly lower than that of the whole year The relevant departments estimate that the total output of corn is expected to be over 38 billion jin, an increase of 1.8 billion jin or 5.0% over last year, which is another high-yield year in history At the same time, according to the investigation of Summer Maize in Guannei region, the prospect of maize harvest in Huanghuai region of North China is also optimistic This year, the domestic corn production is expected to have a good harvest, the market supply is sufficient, and the upward pressure on corn prices is increasing The domestic corn market demand is optimistic, which supports the purchase price First, at present, the domestic feed industry and breeding industry are gradually recovering, and the demand for feed corn is showing a recovery growth trend According to statistics, China's feed production in September increased by more than 12% compared with August, the price of piglets increased by 3% compared with August, and the price of pigs increased by 3.9% compared with August It is expected that feed production and marketing will maintain a high growth rate in the fourth quarter The growth of domestic feed demand, the gradual improvement of meat export prospects and the recovery of domestic livestock and poultry prices will drive the demand and price rebound of corn Second, as corn prices continue to keep high this year, especially the rapid rise in corn prices since September, which has a great impact on the purchase price of new corn this year, and makes the market more bullish At the same time, due to the impact of the Northeast Railway Transportation tension, the corn inventory of enterprises in the sales area has declined, and the future purchase demand will increase, which will also affect the current corn price and even new grain The acquisition price after listing is favorable Third, the industrial demand for corn will further increase With the rapid development of agricultural products processing industry, the domestic industrial corn processing capacity has been further improved, especially in Northeast China The corn processing capacity of Jilin Province alone is 900000 tons more than last year The increase of industrial demand for corn raw materials can not only effectively expand the consumption of corn, but also play a strong supporting role in the purchase price of corn Fourth, the continued increase in export volume supports the price of corn The latest customs data shows that China exported 590000 tons of corn in August, which is higher than the expected level of the market This also brought the export volume of corn in the first 11 months of this year to 6.97 million tons In contrast, the current U.S Department of Agriculture estimates that China's corn exports in 2004 / 05 are 7 million tons In addition, in the past week, the rise of international freight rates has also helped to restore the competitiveness of China's corn exports After the reform of state-owned grain enterprises, they will be more active in market acquisition At the end of 2004, the state-owned grain purchase and sale enterprises were faced with various pressures of restructuring, which affected the purchase work At present, the first stage of the reform of the state-owned grain storage and collection enterprises has been completed, and the distribution of workers is relatively stable After the reform, the grain storage and collection enterprises have implemented a new mechanism of independent management and self financing market-oriented management, which has promoted the state-owned grain purchase enterprises to actively participate in the market competition In terms of capital investment, they will further increase, strive for more and better grain, so as to master more grain sources and win Greater economic benefits In addition, after the opening of the grain market, the number of enterprises participating in the grain purchase and management increased significantly, with multiple subjects entering the market for purchase, and the purchasing capacity continued to increase Taking Jilin Province as an example, at present, the purchasing capacity of individual and private grain purchase enterprises in the Province is more than 5 billion jin Therefore, the competition in the new grain purchase market is likely to be more intense this year The mode of grain sales has changed from seasonal sales to perennial sales With the deepening of the reform of grain purchase and sale system and the further improvement of grain market system, the purchase and sale of grain will be perennial, especially corn On the one hand, in order to reduce operating costs and improve efficiency, grain purchase and sale and processing enterprises will purchase according to market demand, price and processing conditions On the other hand, due to the implementation of preferential policies such as exemption of agricultural tax, grain direct subsidy and fine seed subsidy, the proportion of farmers is not eager to realize the increase Judging from the situation of Jilin Province, due to the influence of Spring Festival, spring ploughing and the region of Jilin Province, corn sales will have three peak periods First, before the Spring Festival The second is before spring ploughing The third is after the May 1st movement The sales of Central Plains corn production area is basically over, the water content of corn in our province is reduced, and the grain consumption enterprises in the sales area will enter the province in large quantities to purchase grain The production cost has been raised, and the mentality of reluctant to sell has been strengthened Farmers have high expectations on the price of corn this year Since 2004, the state has issued various preferential policies for agriculture, such as reducing agricultural taxes and grain direct subsidy, which have greatly mobilized farmers' enthusiasm for grain production, improved farmers' income, increased their cash holdings, strengthened their ability to repay loans through their own funds, and were not eager to realize them In addition, in recent years, agricultural production credit funds are relatively abundant, credit environment is good, and production funds are basic There is a guarantee to enable farmers to sell corn at a time when the market price is relatively high In addition, the prices of seed, chemical fertilizer, pesticide, agricultural film, agricultural diesel and other agricultural means of production have increased in different degrees compared with last year, and the increase is larger It is estimated that the seed is about 15% higher than the previous year, the chemical fertilizer is about 25%, the agricultural film is about 20%, and the pesticide is about 18% The increase in the price of means of production has led to an increase in the cost of production and grain production The total cost of corn per mu increased by 24.2 yuan over the previous year, and the cost of grain per hectare was 0.37 yuan, an increase of 0.022 yuan or 6.3% over the previous year Therefore, the increase of production cost will increase the psychological acceptance price of farmers Based on the above analysis, after the listing of new grain this year, under the influence of favorable factors such as strong demand, farmers' reluctance to sell and bullish psychology, the competition of multiple subjects in the corn purchase market will be more intense, and the purchase price is expected to be higher than that of the previous year However, the impact of this year's corn harvest on its price can not be ignored Due to the influence of weather factors, this year's domestic new corn listing period has been delayed compared with previous years At the beginning of the scale opening, due to the small amount of corn listed and the high price, the market may not be under pressure However, with the increasing amount of new corn listed, the market pressure will gradually appear The author thinks that the situation of corn purchase in China is optimistic this year, and its price is likely to be higher, but with the appearance of market negative factors, its price will still return to the normal track.