Price analysis of domestic soybean, soybean meal and soybean oil in the first half of the year

Introduction: the author: Chen Yonghong, national grain and oil information center, in the first half of this year, influenced by the implementation of the genetically modified policy, the price of domestic soybeans rose significantly From January to June, the price of middle oil soybeans in the production and marketing areas rose by as much as 700 yuan / ton On January 7, the Ministry of Agriculture issued the detailed rules for the safety management of agricultural genetically modified organisms, including the administrative measures for the safety evaluation of agricultural genetically modified organisms, the administrative measures for the labeling of agricultural genetically modified organisms, and the administrative measures for the import safety of agricultural genetically modified organisms The Measures stipulate that genetically modified soybean products that arrive at Chinese coastal ports after March 20 must have agricultural genetically modified organisms safety certificates and import licenses In the next two days, the soybean futures price of Dachang appeared to rise and fall for two consecutive days The price of domestic medium-sized soybeans in Harbin increased from 1420-1500 yuan / ton at the beginning of January to 1760-1800 yuan / ton at the end of February On March 11, China's Ministry of Agriculture announced the interim measures management procedures for the import of genetically modified agricultural products The application date of GM safety certificate will be reduced from 270 to 30, and the validity period of interim measures will be up to December 20, 2002 The interim measure confirms market rumors that China will reduce the approval date of genetically modified agricultural products During this period, domestic soybean purchasers slowed down the purchase speed of soybeans, and the price of domestic soybeans dropped slightly The purchase price of platforms in Jixian District of Heilongjiang Province dropped to 1640-1660 yuan / ton, and that in Harbin District dropped to 1740-1760 yuan / ton Since then, in March, the price of domestic soybeans has risen steadily In the first ten days of April, the supply quantity of soybean in Northeast China began to decline, and the price continued to rise steadily However, due to the full exemption of railway construction fund, the railway freight decreased, and the delivery price of domestic soybean in Shandong Province remained stable On May 8, the Ministry of Health announced the measures for the health management of genetically modified food adopted on December 11, 2001 According to the measures, before the importers of genetically modified products can sell their products to China, they must obtain the evaluation and verification of food safety and nutrition quality from the Ministry of health, and the measures will be implemented on July 1 New variables have been added to soybean import after GM safety certificate, labeling and import inspection The market's concern about the expectation of imported soybeans has led to a rapid rise in the price of domestic soybeans In early May, the delivery price of soybean platform in Harbin, Heilongjiang Province rose to 1980-2000 yuan / ton In the middle of June, China's first soybean imports resumed after the implementation of the agricultural genetically modified policy on March 20 By the end of June, the port had imported about 780000 tons of soybeans by 13.5 ships At the end of June, soybean prices in Harbin, Heilongjiang Province rose to 2040-2060 yuan / ton Due to the decline of soybean supply, the market is basically free of price In the first half of this year, the prices of domestic soybean meal and soybean oil rose sharply At the end of February, affected by the export tax rebate policy, soybean meal prices rose In March, the soybean meal price was stable At the end of April, due to the decline of domestic soybean supply, the operating rate of the crushing plant gradually decreased, and the price of domestic soybean meal increased significantly At the beginning of May, the factory quotation of medium soybean meal in Harbin increased to 1760 yuan / ton, the price of soybean meal in Shandong increased to 1940 yuan / ton, and the price of soybean meal in Guangzhou increased to 2060 yuan / ton As the development of the breeding industry is hindered and the demand for soybean meal drops, the price of soybean meal in East China and South China fell in June In the first half of July, influenced by the high soybean price, the price of domestic soybean meal recovered again, but it was far from the highest price in May At the end of the first half of this year, compared with the initial stage, the price of domestic soybean meal increased by 200-300 yuan / ton Similar to the price trend of domestic soybean meal, the price of domestic soybean oil in the first half of the year also fluctuated significantly From January to March, the price of domestic soybean oil is stable The ex factory price of grade II crude soybean oil in Harbin is about 4450 yuan / ton, that in Shandong is 4600 yuan / ton, and that in Guangzhou is 4900 yuan / ton In April, affected by the off-season of soybean oil sales and the issuance of soybean oil quotas, soybean oil prices fell, down about 120-200 yuan / ton In May, the price of soybean oil in Northeast China rose, while that in East China and South China continued to fall The price difference of soybean oil in Northeast China, East China and South China was inverted In June, soybean oil prices rose in East and South China due to rising soybean prices and insufficient supply of domestic soybean oil In the middle of July, the ex factory price of grade II crude soybean oil in Harbin is about 5600 yuan / ton, that in Shandong is about 5100 yuan / ton, and that in Guangzhou is about 4800 yuan / ton.