Prediction of future price trend of fish meal

Introduction: due to many reasons, Peru's fishing volume and fish meal production will be the key to affect the price trend after July This fishing is most likely to be normal The fishing is intermittent and the yield is not large or small It is sold while producing, and there is not much inventory.. In this case, the price of Peru's catch is not likely to be high or low, and it will maintain a stable market The price of FAQ fish meal in USD will remain in the 620-660 range, because: 1 The fish meal produced after the lifting of the ban shall first be delivered to the futures owed in the previous period or delivered successively (of course, some of them come to China) 2 Half of the fishmeal produced is steam fishmeal, and the quantity of FAQ fishmeal available for sale is limited Chinese buyers still mainly purchase FAQ fishmeal 3 It is common sense that the transaction price of China's purchase of futures after the lifting of the ban has reached cnf620 US dollars, so the spot price after the lifting of the ban should be higher than this price, at least not lower than this price At the same time, this price will also inhibit a certain amount of purchase 4 Many Chinese buyers are waiting to buy goods, and they will rush into the market whenever there is an opportunity.. In addition, buyers from other countries and regions will continue to appear, such as Japan, the Philippines, Russia, Iran.. In this context, will Peru's price drop significantly? At least it will remain stable According to the supply and price situation in Peru, the price trend of China after July is determined by the demand situation of China after July (July, August and September, the same below): 1 The general trend is that supply is less than demand, supply is reduced, and the price level can adjust the balance of supply and demand at any time 2 According to the import purchase cost, there is little chance that the port FAQ fish meal will be less than 6000 yuan / ton I personally think the price range is 6100-6300, and the price will remain relatively stable At the same time, due to the high price, the total demand decreased by 1 / 3 3 Due to the fact that China's procurement is relatively decentralized and flexible (especially in containers), strong continuity, and it is not easy to be out of stock, there is not much chance of skyrocketing 4 After July (July, August and September) is the peak season of Chinese fish meal usage, and the demand will definitely pull the market Once there is a bit of turbulence in Peru (reduction of fishing volume, small fishing ban, increase of oil price, delay of shipment...), it is possible for the price of domestic fish meal to rise again on the basis of the range of 6100-6300.