Prediction and prevention of pig risk (4.10)

Since dingsongshan recently, the price of pigs and pigs in Jiangsu Province has been falling all the way From 8.6 yuan in November 1997, the price of pigs and pigs per kilogram has been reduced to 5 yuan at present After deducting the cost of 100 yuan to 200 yuan per pig, the farmers' enthusiasm for raising pigs has been seriously affected "It is difficult to raise pigs, and it is more difficult to predict and prevent the risks of pig raising." That's what the peasants say It is undeniable that under the condition of market economy, in the current situation that pig production is mostly based on one household of farmers, multi-channel acquisition, imperfect market information release system, fragmented information, slow source, etc., the risk of pig breeding exists, but it is not unpredictable and preventable Pig price is closely related to grain price Pig can't live without food When there is a good harvest and the cost of raising pigs drops, farmers can make profits and the price of piglets will rise As the saying goes, "pigs are expensive and grains are cheap" is the truth In 1995, the price of grain remained high The price of corn per kilogram was more than 1.8 yuan It was not profitable for farmers to raise pigs In the summer of that year, the price of piglets in Northern Jiangsu plummeted, with only two or three yuan per 500g, and even the phenomenon of leaving piglets on the side of the road or in the Maokeng appeared In 1996, the price of grain fell, and the price ratio of pig to grain reached 1:8 This greatly stimulated farmers' enthusiasm for raising pigs, which gradually reached a climax The fluctuation of pig price has certain periodicity In 1994, the price of pigs was relatively high, and the number of pigs on hand increased, which set the stage for a significant decline in the price of pigs in 1995 In 1995, the price of pigs plummeted and the number of pigs on hand decreased significantly, which created conditions for the rise of the price of pigs in 1996 In 1996 and 1997, the price of grain fell steadily, and the price of pig food was larger than that of lard, which aroused the enthusiasm of farmers in raising pigs Raising sows and buying sows and fattening pigs have resulted in a sharp increase in the number of sows, sows and fattening pigs, which has also laid a fuse for the current decline in pig prices Looking back on the fluctuation of pig price in recent years, we can find such a rule: when the price of pig rises to a certain price and forms a certain pig fever, within five or six months, the price of pig will definitely go down; when the price of pig falls to a certain limit and the pig fever cools for seven or eight months, the price of pig will gradually rise again Pig price is related to consumption demand The price of any kind of commodity is related to consumption demand, and the price of pig is no exception The previous decline in pig prices was due to the fact that the number of pigs on hand was much higher than the market demand, resulting in oversupply, resulting in a fall in pig prices; the rise in pig prices was due to the decrease in the number of pigs on hand, resulting in a rise in pig prices The current situation of pig price decline should have been exposed before the Spring Festival in 1998, because the increase of demand during the two festivals delayed the occurrence of the situation for some time At present, China's pig sales are mainly based on domestic demand, supplemented by foreign demand The demand and time of the foreign market are very unstable, and the demand information is often real-time However, the production and sales of pigs have a certain period, so it can not completely rely on the foreign market to resolve the risk of pig breeding Pig price is related to information orientation The channels for farmers to collect information are limited, the way is backward and the process is long Therefore, accurate, timely and perfect information guidance is very important Some news media or journalists, unable to see or understand the existing risks under the overheated situation, are willing to applaud the pig fever, causing certain information misleading Some local newspapers can't provide accurate information reports according to the local pig raising situation For example, on January 4 this year, Jiangsu Evening News published an article with the signature of "Zhong Mao" New Year's Outlook - good opportunity for pork export, in which pigs are raised The good opportunity is analyzed and affirmed from four aspects, only in the end of the article, the risk of pig breeding has been brought Almost at the same time, Xinhua news agency released the news that the Department of animal husbandry and veterinary medicine of the Ministry of agriculture reminded the majority of farmers that the pig fever should be appropriately cooled In the article, it analyzed the current large number of pig stocks, the rising price of corn, the balance of supply and demand, and the possibility of a new round of pig risk warning On the contrary, the local newspaper published an article with a favorable view Coincidentally, the pig fever in this area has lasted for more than one year, and the risk of pig breeding has begun to show With the appearance of this article, it is necessary to pour oil on the heat of pig raising that should be cooled down, which makes farmers fall into a deeper misunderstanding Since the pork market was completely opened, pig farming has been hot and cold, rising and falling After many trials, it is not difficult for farmers to draw some lessons from it As long as we are good at analysis, diligent in summary, and do not blindly follow the trend, we should take action when we need to We can not only predict the risks of pig breeding, but also prevent them China feed industry information network XZD (author:)