Prediction and analysis of aquatic products market in 2005

Introduction: the fishery situation is the best in recent years It is estimated that the total annual fishery production will exceed 48 million tons, an increase of 2.3% over the previous year's 46.9 million tons From January to October, the fishing capacity was 11.47 million tons, an increase of 2.1% over the same period last year It shows that the natural and wild resources of fresh water products begin to recover after the implementation of the system of closed fishing and closed fishing period in China From January to November, the consumer price index of aquatic products reached 12.9%, with a substantial increase, ending years of sluggish and negative growth The income of fishermen has increased substantially, and it is expected to increase by more than 5% in the whole year From January to October 2004, when the United States carried out anti-dumping investigation on China's shrimp products and adopted high tariffs, the total export volume of aquatic products still reached 5.33 billion US dollars, an increase of 25.9% year on year Accounting for 28.9% of the total export of agricultural products, the largest increase since 1996 The dominant traditional products prawn, eel, yellow croaker and shellfish account for 52.6% of the total export value In 2005, under the overall environment of market development, under the guidance of the party and the government's scientific macro policies, and under the guidance of the central government's continued increase in investment in agriculture, and on a sound basis in 2004, a stable, healthy, positive and sustainable development situation will emerge The main trends and characteristics are as follows: first, the scientific outlook on development will become the fundamental guiding ideology of fishery production and development Fishery production is always inseparable from water For a long time, aquaculture in China has been seriously restricted by water resources How to develop and make good use of the limited water resources and how to develop the fishery production under the premise of maintaining the water ecological environment will become an important topic in the future China is a big country short of water In 2003, the national water shortage reached 40 billion cubic meters Of the 669 cities, more than 400 are short of water supply, accounting for 61.2% Of the 32 mega cities, 30 suffer from water shortage, accounting for 93.7% At the same time, only 38.01% of the seven major water systems in China meet the safety water quality standards of more than three categories, and 30% of them are seriously polluted 75% of the 52 Main Lakes in China are eutrophic 26 lakes are seriously polluted, accounting for 50% The water quality of selimu lake and Qinghai Lake in Xinjiang is class I The famous Bosten Lake in Xinjiang has 95% water quality of class IV In 2003, 308 of the 8900 reservoirs in China were evaluated 75% of them meet the standards above class III, but the nutritional status is relatively common (excerpted from China water resources bulletin 2003) In such a serious situation, the overall layout of aquaculture should be adjusted The surrounding areas of big cities transfer to remote areas, inland areas transfer to coastal areas, water shortage areas transfer to water rich areas, and freshwater aquaculture transfer to seawater aquaculture The offshore culture is transferred to the deep sea culture, and the artificial pond culture is transferred to the river natural stocking In the fishery production of reservoirs and lakes, we must vigorously promote the quantity of silver carp and bighead carp fry, and vigorously promote the natural stocking of river crabs, so as to better improve the water quality All efforts should be made to limit the breeding varieties and methods that seriously pollute the water source The establishment of new products must go through strict examination, meet the requirements of environmental protection, and do not blindly develop in disorder The short-term market efficiency should not be taken as the evaluation standard In some areas, due to blind development of new varieties, not only the price has plummeted, but also the water source has been seriously polluted To set up a scientific outlook on development is a new requirement of market economy in the new situation There is still a lot of work to do After China's entry into WTO, the international great circle has been established The market competition of China's fishery economy has shifted from the domestic market to the international market The market competition will be more intense China has been in WTO for three years This year, our tariffs will continue to fall The average import tariff of aquatic products will be reduced from 17% last year to 10.5%, down 70% from 35% three years ago In recent years, China's consumption of imported saliva products will grow from 500000-600000 tons per year (excluding the quantity of self catching and smuggling in the ocean) to more than 1 million tons The tariff of about 10% has almost opened the door to the international market At that time, there will be more frozen aquatic products, fresh seafood into the market in China Under the current market situation in China, the import of aquatic products has affected the overall market of aquatic products in China The market of domestic hairtail depends on the eyesight of imported hairtail And the market of hairtail is controlling the market of sea fish The market of sea water fish restrains the market of fresh water fish In 1-11 of 2004, the grain price increased by 27.5%, meat and poultry by 18.2%, and fish by 12.9% The increase in the price of aquatic products is the lowest This price increase is cost driven It is not that the production cost of aquatic products is lower than that of meat, poultry and eggs, so the price increase is low But, the price of aquatic products, a lot of constraints on the price of natural fishing sea fish And the price of sea water fish is restricted by the imported products Therefore, the price of aquatic products is difficult to be controlled by the domestic market This year, it will be more obvious Just because the quality of imported products is better than that of domestic products, and the price is lower than that of domestic products The multiple entry of imported products is not the main problem Because in the marine products that are produced and fished in our country, the medium-sized and marketable commodities are seriously under supplied For example: hairtail, yellow croaker, flatfish, squid, cuttlefish, yellow croaker, free fish, etc These market demands need to be supplemented by imported goods Even in the past few years, when the tariff is as high as 35%, the annual import of hairtail into China's market through various channels has reached the level of one million tons, and all of them are high-quality fish The quantity of hairtail is the same as that of hairtail in China The natural wild yellow croaker is basically imported The import of flatfish is larger than that of domestic fish Over 80% of high-end goods are imported For example, the United States, Australia and Canada are the major importers of lobster Just this month, Canada will send more people from the aquaculture industry to China to expand and discuss business exchanges In the past two years, more aquatic products from Canada have entered the Chinese market Canada's Arctic sweet shrimp has replaced Norway and Denmark as the most similar product in China 90% of tuna is imported All authentic salmon are imported from Norway In 2005, the opening schedule of some service industries, the main issue that needs to be concerned is the overall liberalization of relevant markets related to aquaculture For example, the full liberalization of commercial services, trade rights, circulation, warehousing, etc In 2005, more foreign investment will enter the aquatic product market of China, involving in circulation, storage, processing, breeding, feed, fishing machinery and equipment Foreign investment will start from the high-end market and gradually penetrate into the low-end market As early as three years ago, Dongyuan group, the largest food enterprise in South Korea, registered in China a wholly-owned Qingdao Dongyuan F & B Food Co., Ltd to process crab meat and tuna cans For tuna canning alone, the daily processing capacity of the factory is 30 tons, mainly for the European market The supply to the Chinese market also rose to 100000 tons / year In 2004, Nanyang United Malaysia, a well-known enterprise in the international aquatic industry, invested US $25 million to build a factory in Ningbo to produce canned fish and various aquatic products, including the famous brand "fresh taste" tuna, which has been marketed in the Chinese market for six years "Xiandewei" brand tuna can is the largest import can in China In 2004, the Thai frozen products trade union (tuf) invested 450000 US dollars to establish an aquatic product market research company in Shanghai And established century canned tuna sales company In 2002, Beijing Zhongyang fishery Co., Ltd., a Hong Kong owned enterprise, was established to sell frozen and fresh tuna In Beijing, the market coverage reaches 80% After tapping into the Chinese market with tuna, CNOOC has set foot in all high-end seafood After a large number of foreign funds, advanced technology and first-class equipment enter into the Chinese aquatic product market unimpeded, Chinese enterprises should be prepared Third, the impact of the tsunami on China's aquatic product market After the Indian Ocean tsunami occurred on December 26, 2004, it caused great damage to the fishery facilities, fishermen's life and production of Indonesia, India, Malaysia, Thailand and other big fishery producing countries It is difficult to recover in a short time The above four countries are the main suppliers of imported hairtail in China, accounting for more than 80% of the total In the first half of this year, with the significant reduction of imports and the increasing fear of consumers for the pollution of marine products in tsunami countries, there will be a shortage of imported hairtail in China Because of the shortage of imported hairtail market, it is impossible for domestic hairtail to make up for it This year is the fourth year for China to sign the fisheries agreement with Japan and South Korea According to the agreement, the exclusive economic zones in the 200 Li sea area of each country will enter into force this year At that time, most of China's fish boats will return to the offshore fishing, and the fish catch will be greatly reduced According to the prediction of relevant departments, the impact will reach 1.44 billion yuan In 2003, Zhoushan produced 177000 tons of hairtail The number is much smaller than before The yield of hairtail in Zhoushan area accounts for 50% of that in China With the sharp decline of hairtail import and domestic production, the price of hairtail may rise significantly around the Spring Festival The position of hairtail in aquatic products is the same as that of grain in agricultural products It is a leading product The rise of the price of hairtail will push the overall price of sea water fish higher In 2004, the price of aquatic products increased by nearly 13%, mainly due to the impact of the prices of freshwater fish and seawater fish At the beginning of 2005, the price index will have a rising trend under the condition that the price month on month index declines for several consecutive months Fourth, the social demand for aquatic products has gradually expanded In 2004, there were 72 aquatic wholesale markets with more than 100 million yuan in China, and the turnover from January to September was 33.49 billion yuan Compared with 29.92 billion yuan in the same period of last year, it increased by 11.93% It is 4.1 times of the turnover of 8.97 billion yuan of meat, poultry and eggs It is estimated that the annual turnover of aquatic products will reach 45 billion yuan Aquatic products are the most traded commodities in the wholesale market of agricultural products in China after vegetables In 2005, among the marine fish fishing products, the relatively stable mass products were hairtail, yellow croaker, flatfish, squid, Spanish mackerel, eel, yellow croaker, cuttlefish, goldthread, sea bass, spectacle fish, etc Among the mariculture products, the more stable ones are kelp, laver, jellyfish skin, jellyfish head, scallop, oyster, Xishi tongue, clam, clam, Dongfeng snail, wrinkled abalone, razor, yellow croaker, barracuda, mullet, American red fish, barracuda crab, green crab, shrimps, grass shrimp, etc The varieties of freshwater aquaculture are relatively stable: grass carp, crucian carp, bighead carp, tilapia, freshwater pomfret, seven star perch, snakehead, eel, eel, mandarin fish, large crab, lobster, Macrobrachium rosenbergii, etc Although turtle and South American white shrimp have formed industrial production scale, they are the worst commodities in the market in 2004 What white shrimps need is to improve their specifications and prolong their breeding time What turtle needs is natural stocking It also needs to extend the breeding time It has been proved that high efficiency