Pork prices staged "V" trend: pork stocks can usher in the "second."

In the first half of the year, pig prices out of the "V" price, and the supply in early July is still tightthe end of May, pork prices rose for the fifth week in a rowAccording to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, as of 14:00 on July 7, the average price of pork in the wholesale market for agricultural products in China was 47.09 yuan/kg, up 0.7 percent from the previous day and 21 percent in more than a monthpig industry once again ushered in a wave of businessin the first half of the pig sales price in a high operating range, pig self-breeding profit is significantly higher than the same period last year, pig-breeding enterprises have been happy: the first half of the year results significantly turned a losslast year's pork stocks staged a big market, this year can usher in the "second spring"? For the second half of the pig price trend, whether there is an investment layout opportunities, the industry views are divided"V" trend reporter combed the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Areas monitoring data was informed that since the end of May (May 29 to June 4 week), the national wholesale market of agricultural products pork average prices continued to climb for five consecutive weeks, from 38.81 yuan / kg to July 7 47.09 yuan / kg, has been up 21% from the week of May 28 38.81 yuan / kgDespite the increase in pig feed prices in the first half of this year, pig-breeding profits remain considerable while pig prices remain highAccording to the latest statistics of ZhuoT, the average price of three yuan outside January-June was 34.73 yuan/kg, up 142.02 percent year-on-yearthe same period, the average profit of pig self-breeding was 2311.51 yuan per head, up 1896.49 percent year-on-year, significantly higher than the profit level of the same period last yearaccompanied by pig prices in late May as a node "V" trend, May and June pig self-breeding profit value overall upAccording to The data of Zhuotron, the average profit of pig self-breeding in May was RMB2010.33/head, up 30.45% month-on-month, up 471.33% YoYWang Yanan, an analyst atZhuotron, told the Economic Observer that the trend of self-breeding earnings in June was still affected by pig prices, and that the change in feed prices in the past five months was weaker than that of pig prices, with limited impact on earnings trendsin the case of pig prices continue to rise, self-supportearning earnings rose faster, at the end of the month rose to 2330.12 yuan / head, up 45.85 percent from the beginning of the monthHou Xiaorui, an analyst in the fresh animal husbandry industry at's first-day futures, told The Economic Watch that the combination of three factors has once again pushed up recent pig prices her analysis, the current pig out of the column corresponding to September 2019 can breed sow storage column, when the sow column is at a historical low, after October began to increase month-on-month, so in July this year the pig out of the column there is a break, which is one of the reasons for this round of pork prices second, in the rising trend of pig prices farmers generally regret to sell, and the current second fattening profit is better, there is a column after the situation of fertilization again, further causing a shortage of pork supply the pig industry has once again ushered in a wave of business, pig-breeding enterprises have also benefited Since the June (as of the afternoon of July 7), the Wind Pig Industry Index has risen 15 per cent, with the shares of Tianbang, Zhengbang Technology, Makraw, New Hope and Wen's shares up 50 per cent, 26 per cent, 23 per cent, 14 per cent and 11 per cent respectively On July 7, , Masahara released the 2020 half-year results forecast, the company turned a profit in the first half of the year, and expected the first half of the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies to be 10.5 billion yuan -11 billion yuan, compared with a loss of 155.7 billion yuan in the same period last year Muyuan shares said that by the impact of the African swine fever health events, the domestic pig production capacity has dropped significantly, the pork market supply and demand contradictions, pig prices in the first half of 2020 from a year earlier, is the main reason for the reporting period net profit turned a profit on July 6, , Tianbang also forecast a year-on-year profit in the first half of the year, and forecast net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in the first half of the year to be 1.48 billion yuan-1.58 billion yuan, up 502.90 percent to 530.12 percent from a year earlier the significant growth in performance during the reporting period of Tianbang shares was mainly due to the company's pig farming business Tianbang shares said that in the first half of 2020, pig sales prices are in a high operating range, the company's commodity pig out prices increased 336.11 percent year-on-year, sales revenue increased by 67.14 percent year-on-year at the same time the company's commodity pig sales constitute the piglets and pig breeds accounted for a relatively high proportion of the corresponding gross margin is also higher other pig-breeding enterprises that have not yet announced their half-year results can also get a glimpse of their earnings from the first half pig sales brief for example, Zhengbang Technology sold 2.7254 million pigs in January-June 2020, down 11.90% YoY; profit contraction? It is obvious that the high pig prices are the key to whether pig-breeding enterprises can continue last year's "brilliant" performance industry views are mixed on the question of whether the future sustainability of the rise in pig prices Hou Xiaorui believes that the current round of pig price rise space and time are limited long-term, the downward trend after the rebound in pig prices is basically certain, but the middle will be affected by seasonal and non-plague effects caused price fluctuations from the fundamentalpoint, last October began to breed sow column began to pick up, according to the results of grass-roots research, last October around the three yuan conversion of the most popular period, corresponding to the pig out of the column after August this year Hou Xiaorui said that this year due to the southern rain problem, non-plague has another serious trend, tooth extraction therapy makes the column again frustrated, but the market did not appear panic selling phenomenon, therefore, she believes that the current rally before August can basically end, the price starts to fall, there is a possibility of how strong this rise, the next fall there is a phenomenon (out of the column increase over the two fattening column) ", "overall, 2020, especially in the second half of the year will face the double pressure of lower pork prices and high farm costs " Hou Xiaorui analysis, the second half of the column pig basically corresponding to the first half of the column piglets buy piglets as an example, from the institutional data, the first half of the national average cost of piglets in 1900 yuan / head (15 kg), fertilizer period feed costs are basically 900-1000 yuan, plus other costs, the average price in the second half of the year in 24 yuan / kg or so to buy pigfatten to save money, and for self-breeding, pig price in 15 yuan / kg basic can be insured and from the point of view of pig prices, the second half of the pig price can maintain a high price of 25 yuan (per kilogram), but with the fall in pig prices, breeding profits will gradually shrink According to The Monitoring of ZhuoTron Information, the number of pigs produced in fixed-point-scale farms in China reached a trough in February 2020, down 58.20% from January 2019 in March 2020 began to stop the decline rebound, of which the supply of the north is relatively adequate, the southern column most of the beginning to increase in August or so, when the domestic production capacity concentrated release, commodity pig column growth or accelerate as a result, the , is expected to 2020 in the second half of the domestic pig prices overall show a downward trend, 2019 glory is difficult to continue Wang Yanan believes that pig prices in early July still have room to rise, mid-to-late or slightly down affected by this, it is expected that the self-breeding profit value of pigs in July still has some upside is relatively optimistic about the future trend of pig prices agency said that since the second quarter, due to the consumption of low-season and the concentration of pig sales and other factors, short-term pig prices have fallen, but the year-on-year growth rate is still 104 percent and most of the enterprises in the second quarter of the column has begun to show a gradual rebound, Makhara, Wen's, New Hope April-May monthly column volume than the first quarter of the monthly column growth of 58%, 18% and 46%, respectively Changjiang Securities believes that pig prices in the third quarter or continue to rise, and in the context of the normalization of non-plague health events, high pig prices are expected to continue Fangzheng Securities analysis, the recent surge in pig prices, mainly due to the production capacity has not yet recovered coupled with the may price overshoot brought about by the early sell-off, resulting in the current national fat pig in the cut-off period, the price of higher than expected rise, breeding end of the sale sentiment is strong, there is still room for further rise the southern rainy season affected by the African swine fever health events relapsed, affecting the recovery of pig production capacity, overlay the reduction of imported meat, the second half of the pig supply is tight, pig prices will remain high operation .