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;
"Before the Spring Festival last year, pork in our market sold for 14.
5 yuan per catty, and I bought more than 100 catties of meat specifically for sausages, cured meat, and three fresh
.
Now the pork is already 21 yuan / jin, and if it rises again at the end of the year, it may not be filled with so many sausages this year
.
Ms.
Deng from Suizhou City, Hubei Province, told
a reporter from Beijing Business Daily.
Ms.
Deng's feelings are also reflected in the
data.
On November 9, the National Bureau of Statistics released data showing that the national CPI (consumer prices) in October rose 2.
1% year-on-year, down 0.
7 percentage points from the previous month; It rose 0.
1% month-on-month, down 0.
2 percentage points
from the previous month.
It is worth noting that in the face of pig prices in the second half of this year, the central government has successively released multiple batches of reserve pork, but the price of pork in October still increased by 9.
4% month-on-month, an increase of 4 percentage points over the previous month; From the year-on-year data, pork prices rose by 51.
8%, an increase of 15.
8 percentage points
over the previous month.
Egg and poultry meat prices rose by 12.
7% and 8.
3%
respectively, driven by higher pork prices.
What continues to drive up hog prices? When will pork prices fall back? Industry experts pointed out that the price of pigs has come to an inflection point, and the pigs marked for pen and secondary fattening will enter the peak period of slaughter in November, superimposed on factors such as the consumption season and high prices to suppress demand, and the probability of small fluctuations
in the later stage.
After the pig price bottomed out and rebounded rapidly this year, it also ensured that the production capacity of breeding sows did not decline rapidly, and the fluctuation range of pig prices in 2023 will also narrow
.
Sound a first-level warning in many places
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, food prices rose 0.
1% in October, down 1.
8 percentage points from the previous month, affecting the CPI by about 0.
01 percentage points
.
Among the food products, fruits and vegetables and aquatic products were on the market in large quantities, coupled with the decline in consumer demand after the holiday, the prices of fresh vegetables, fresh fruits and aquatic products all turned from rising to falling, falling by 4.
5%, 1.
6% and 2.
3% respectively.
Affected by factors such as the pig production cycle, short-term slaughter sales and pork consumption season, pork prices rose by 9.
4%, an increase of 4 percentage points
over the previous month.
From the year-on-year data, pork prices rose by 51.
8%, an increase of 15.
8 percentage points
over the previous month.
Egg and poultry meat prices rose by 12.
7% and 8.
3%
respectively, driven by higher pork prices.
In fact, not long ago, many places have sounded the "first-level warning"
of excessive pig price increases.
On October 19, the National Development and Reform Commission pointed out that according to monitoring, in the week of October 10-14, the weekly average retail price of lean meat in 36 large and medium-sized cities increased by more than 40% compared with the same period last year, entering the first-level warning range
of excessive rise.
At the same time, Henan Province entered the first-level warning range of excessive pig price rise; Shanxi Province entered the secondary warning range of excessive pig price rise; Guangdong Province entered the three-level warning range of excessive pig price rise
.
According to the regulations of the National Development and Reform Commission, the adjustment mechanism for the rise of pork reserves in China is mainly divided into three levels of early warning, from low to high: three-level early warning, when the pig-to-food ratio is higher than 9, the release will not be started for the time being; Second-level warning, the pig-to-grain ratio is between 10-12 for two consecutive weeks, or the weekly average price of lean meat in 36 large and medium-sized cities increased by 30%-40% year-on-year, and reserve release was started; First-level warning, the pig-to-food ratio is higher than 12.
, or the average weekly price of lean meat in 36 large and medium-sized cities has increased by more than 40% year-on-year, and the investment has
been increased.
After the early warning sounded in many places, the National Development and Reform Commission also reacted quickly
.
On November 4, the National Development and Reform Commission released the seventh batch of pork reserves, and also guided all localities to increase efforts to release local pork reserves
.
"The state's launch is a means of macro-control of the market, and it also releases a signal of stable prices, which will stimulate farmers to increase their enthusiasm for slaughter
.
" Zhu Zengyong, a researcher at the Beijing Institute of Animal Science and Veterinary Medicine of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences
, told Beijing Business Daily.
Pressure and sale have led to fewer pigs in the market
According to data from China Pig Network, the price of pigs (foreign three yuan) on November 9 was 26.
16 yuan / kg, compared with this year's average pig self-raising cost of 17-18 yuan / jin, this price is still high
.
Why did the National Development and Reform Commission release 7 batches of reserve pork, and the pig price is still in a high position? Zhu Zengyong said that this is mainly caused by the superposition of two factors, repairing rise and seasonal rise, "Simply put, the tight supply in the market leads to higher prices"
.
According to Zhu Zengyong, the recovery rise mainly involves the pig cycle
.
In the August, September and October months of 2021, pig prices were at a low level, when the production capacity of breeding sows quickly adjusted and declined, coupled with the obvious decline in the breeding rate at that time, resulting in a significant decrease in piglet births in the first quarter and second quarter of 2022 compared with the fourth quarter of last year, resulting in a small
overall pig output in the third quarter of this year.
"Another factor in the restorative rise is the driving of breeding sentiment
.
" Zhu Zengyong introduced that from the end of June, pig prices have seen the first wave of obvious rebound, when the overall breeding industry began to enter breakeven, and then the breeding efficiency began to continue to increase, "Under the situation of price increases, the phenomenon of farmers reluctantly selling pigs for secondary fattening and pen pressing has also begun to increase
significantly.
" ”
The secondary fattening mentioned by Zhu Zengyong refers to the fact that some middle-scale farmers buy standard weight pigs (generally 110-120 kg/piece) that have been slaughtered and then raise them to a larger size and sell
them.
Mr.
Li, a pig industry insider in Guangdong, also told the Beijing Business Daily reporter, "Under the high price, many farmers are indeed reluctant to sell, originally 120 kg of pigs can be slaughtered, many farmers raise 150-180 kg and then sell, and because the curing season of increased consumer demand for fat meat is coming, larger pigs are 1.
0-1.
5 yuan / jin more expensive than standard pigs"
.
In terms of seasonal factors, mainly September and October catch up with the Mid-Autumn Festival and "November", and consumer demand has increased
significantly.
Coupled with the year-on-year decline in imported pork in the first half of this year, and the spread of the epidemic affecting circulation, pig prices rose successively in September and October
.
"However, at the end of October and the beginning of November, hog prices have begun to decline
significantly.
" Zhu Zengyong emphasized
.
According to data from China Pig Network, the price of live pigs (foreign three yuan) has begun to decline one after another after 28.
54 yuan / kg on October 23, falling to 26.
16 yuan / kg
on November 9.
Pig prices may be at an inflection point
Looking forward to the future trend of the market, Zhu Zengyong believes that the inflection point of pig prices has arrived, and the subsequent shock will fall
.
He said that from the supply side, the supply of pigs pressed and secondary fattened by breeding enterprises and farmers has reached the time of centralized slaughter in November, and the supply of the market will begin to rise; From the perspective of consumption, as mentioned by Ms.
Deng above, the price of pork before the Spring Festival in 2021 is a low point in the past two years, and the price of pork before the Spring Festival this year is in a relatively high position, which also has a certain inhibitory effect
on consumption.
"Under the hedging of both ends, the possibility of subsequent price increases is very small, and the overall stability is declining
.
" He said
.
In an interview with a reporter from Beijing Business Daily, the person in charge of a feed company in Guangdong also said that pig prices will probably remain at 10-12 yuan / jin a stable decline a few years ago, and pork prices will probably begin to decline
after the year.
It is worth noting that Zhu Zengyong mentioned the rapid rise in pig prices in the third quarter of this year, which greatly reduced the risk of
large fluctuations in pig prices in 2023.
"This year's pig prices began to rebound rapidly after bottoming out in late March, which on the one hand put consumers under pressure, but on the other hand, the rapid rebound also boosted the confidence of farmers, and from May, the production capacity of breeding sows began to increase as prices rebounded, which means that the supply of pigs in 2023 will be very stable and relatively abundant
.
" Zhu Zengyong said that he believes that next year's pig price fluctuations will narrow, and there will be no more big ups and downs
.
As for pork prices that consumers perceive more obviously, he believes that pork prices fluctuate less than pig prices, which rise and fall, and the follow-up will probably be the trend
of shock before and decline after year.
;
;"Before the Spring Festival last year, pork in our market sold for 14.
5 yuan per catty, and I bought more than 100 catties of meat specifically for sausages, cured meat, and three fresh
.
Now the pork is already 21 yuan / jin, and if it rises again at the end of the year, it may not be filled with so many sausages this year
.
Ms.
Deng from Suizhou City, Hubei Province, told
a reporter from Beijing Business Daily.
Ms.
Deng's feelings are also reflected in the
data.
On November 9, the National Bureau of Statistics released data showing that the national CPI (consumer prices) in October rose 2.
1% year-on-year, down 0.
7 percentage points from the previous month; It rose 0.
1% month-on-month, down 0.
2 percentage points
from the previous month.
It is worth noting that in the face of pig prices in the second half of this year, the central government has successively released multiple batches of reserve pork, but the price of pork in October still increased by 9.
4% month-on-month, an increase of 4 percentage points over the previous month; From the year-on-year data, pork prices rose by 51.
8%, an increase of 15.
8 percentage points
over the previous month.
Egg and poultry meat prices rose by 12.
7% and 8.
3%
respectively, driven by higher pork prices.
4% month-on-month, from the year-on-year data, pork prices rose 51.
8%, driven by the rise in pork prices, egg and poultry meat prices rose by 12.
7% and 8.
3%
respectively.
What continues to drive up hog prices? When will pork prices fall back? Industry experts pointed out that the price of pigs has come to an inflection point, and the pigs marked for pen and secondary fattening will enter the peak period of slaughter in November, superimposed on factors such as the consumption season and high prices to suppress demand, and the probability of small fluctuations
in the later stage.
After the pig price bottomed out and rebounded rapidly this year, it also ensured that the production capacity of breeding sows did not decline rapidly, and the fluctuation range of pig prices in 2023 will also narrow
.
Sound a first-level warning in many places
Sound first-level early warning in many places, and sound first-level early warning in many placesAccording to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, food prices rose 0.
1% in October, down 1.
8 percentage points from the previous month, affecting the CPI by about 0.
01 percentage points
.
Among the food products, fruits and vegetables and aquatic products were on the market in large quantities, coupled with the decline in consumer demand after the holiday, the prices of fresh vegetables, fresh fruits and aquatic products all turned from rising to falling, falling by 4.
5%, 1.
6% and 2.
3% respectively.
Affected by factors such as the pig production cycle, short-term slaughter sales and pork consumption season, pork prices rose by 9.
4%, an increase of 4 percentage points
over the previous month.
From the year-on-year data, pork prices rose by 51.
8%, an increase of 15.
8 percentage points
over the previous month.
Egg and poultry meat prices rose by 12.
7% and 8.
3%
respectively, driven by higher pork prices.
In fact, not long ago, many places have sounded the "first-level warning"
of excessive pig price increases.
On October 19, the National Development and Reform Commission pointed out that according to monitoring, in the week of October 10-14, the weekly average retail price of lean meat in 36 large and medium-sized cities increased by more than 40% compared with the same period last year, entering the first-level warning range
of excessive rise.
At the same time, Henan Province entered the first-level warning range of excessive pig price rise; Shanxi Province entered the secondary warning range of excessive pig price rise; Guangdong Province entered the three-level warning range of excessive pig price rise
.
According to the regulations of the National Development and Reform Commission, the adjustment mechanism for the rise of pork reserves in China is mainly divided into three levels of early warning, from low to high: three-level early warning, when the pig-to-food ratio is higher than 9, the release will not be started for the time being; Second-level warning, the pig-to-grain ratio is between 10-12 for two consecutive weeks, or the weekly average price of lean meat in 36 large and medium-sized cities increased by 30%-40% year-on-year, and reserve release was started; First-level warning, the pig-to-food ratio is higher than 12.
, or the average weekly price of lean meat in 36 large and medium-sized cities has increased by more than 40% year-on-year, and the investment has
been increased.
, or the average weekly price of lean meat in 36 large and medium-sized cities has increased by more than 40% year-on-year, and the investment has
been increased.
After the early warning sounded in many places, the National Development and Reform Commission also reacted quickly
.
On November 4, the National Development and Reform Commission released the seventh batch of pork reserves, and also guided all localities to increase efforts to release local pork reserves
.
.
"The state's launch is a means of macro-control of the market, and it also releases a signal of stable prices, which will stimulate farmers to increase their enthusiasm for slaughter
.
" Zhu Zengyong, a researcher at the Beijing Institute of Animal Science and Veterinary Medicine of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences
, told Beijing Business Daily.
Pressure and sale have led to fewer pigs in the market
Pressure pen reluctance to sell, etc., resulting in less pigs in the market, etc.
, resulting in less pigs in the market
According to data from China Pig Network, the price of pigs (foreign three yuan) on November 9 was 26.
16 yuan / kg, compared with this year's average pig self-raising cost of 17-18 yuan / jin, this price is still high
.
Why did the National Development and Reform Commission release 7 batches of reserve pork, and the pig price is still in a high position? Zhu Zengyong said that this is mainly caused by the superposition of two factors, repairing rise and seasonal rise, "Simply put, the tight supply in the market leads to higher prices"
.
According to Zhu Zengyong, the recovery rise mainly involves the pig cycle
.
In the August, September and October months of 2021, pig prices were at a low level, when the production capacity of breeding sows quickly adjusted and declined, coupled with the obvious decline in the breeding rate at that time, resulting in a significant decrease in piglet births in the first quarter and second quarter of 2022 compared with the fourth quarter of last year, resulting in a small
overall pig output in the third quarter of this year.
"Another factor in the restorative rise is the driving of breeding sentiment
.
" Zhu Zengyong introduced that from the end of June, pig prices have seen the first wave of obvious rebound, when the overall breeding industry began to enter breakeven, and then the breeding efficiency began to continue to increase, "Under the situation of price increases, the phenomenon of farmers reluctantly selling pigs for secondary fattening and pen pressing has also begun to increase
significantly.
" ”
The secondary fattening mentioned by Zhu Zengyong refers to the fact that some middle-scale farmers buy standard weight pigs (generally 110-120 kg/piece) that have been slaughtered and then raise them to a larger size and sell
them.
Mr.
Li, a pig industry insider in Guangdong, also told the Beijing Business Daily reporter, "Under the high price, many farmers are indeed reluctant to sell, originally 120 kg of pigs can be slaughtered, many farmers raise 150-180 kg and then sell, and because the curing season of increased consumer demand for fat meat is coming, larger pigs are 1.
0-1.
5 yuan / jin more expensive than standard pigs"
.
In terms of seasonal factors, mainly September and October catch up with the Mid-Autumn Festival and "November", and consumer demand has increased
significantly.
Coupled with the year-on-year decline in imported pork in the first half of this year, and the spread of the epidemic affecting circulation, pig prices rose successively in September and October
.
"However, at the end of October and the beginning of November, hog prices have begun to decline
significantly.
" Zhu Zengyong emphasized
.
According to data from China Pig Network, the price of live pigs (foreign three yuan) has begun to decline one after another after 28.
54 yuan / kg on October 23, falling to 26.
16 yuan / kg
on November 9.
Pig prices may be at an inflection point
Pig prices may meet the inflection point, pig prices may welcome the inflection pointLooking forward to the future trend of the market, Zhu Zengyong believes that the inflection point of pig prices has arrived, and the subsequent shock will fall
.
.
He said that from the supply side, the supply of pigs pressed and secondary fattened by breeding enterprises and farmers has reached the time of centralized slaughter in November, and the supply of the market will begin to rise; From the perspective of consumption, as mentioned by Ms.
Deng above, the price of pork before the Spring Festival in 2021 is a low point in the past two years, and the price of pork before the Spring Festival this year is in a relatively high position, which also has a certain inhibitory effect
on consumption.
"Under the hedging of both ends, the possibility of subsequent price increases is very small, and the overall stability is declining
.
" He said
.
In an interview with a reporter from Beijing Business Daily, the person in charge of a feed company in Guangdong also said that pig prices will probably remain at 10-12 yuan / jin a stable decline a few years ago, and pork prices will probably begin to decline
after the year.
It is worth noting that Zhu Zengyong mentioned the rapid rise in pig prices in the third quarter of this year, which greatly reduced the risk of
large fluctuations in pig prices in 2023.
"This year's pig prices began to rebound rapidly after bottoming out in late March, which on the one hand put consumers under pressure, but on the other hand, the rapid rebound also boosted the confidence of farmers, and from May, the production capacity of breeding sows began to increase as prices rebounded, which means that the supply of pigs in 2023 will be very stable and relatively abundant
.
" Zhu Zengyong said that he believes that next year's pig price fluctuations will narrow, and there will be no more big ups and downs
.
As for pork prices that consumers perceive more obviously, he believes that pork prices fluctuate less than pig prices, which rise and fall, and the follow-up will probably be the trend
of shock before and decline after year.
