Pork prices rebounded in the peak demand season

On November 25, in Beijing's Xinfadi Pork Trading Hall, hundreds of pork stall owners were busy, soliciting customers, bargaining prices, weighing and checking out, a bustling scene

According to the national agricultural product wholesale market data monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the average wholesale price of pork has risen from the lowest point of 17.

Experts believe that pork prices recovered after hitting the bottom in October, mainly driven by demand, but the pattern of oversupply in the live pig market has not changed.

Consumer demand pull

The market information disclosed on the official website of Xinfadi Market shows that since September 25, pork prices have rebounded from a low point

"Pork prices have rebounded from a low level under the premise of a substantial increase in supply, indicating that consumption has played a major role

"The weather is cold,

A citizen told reporters that there is a habit of making sausage stuffed with bacon at home

Faced with the increase in pork prices, many consumers said that when holidays such as New Year's Day and Spring Festival are approaching, the price of pork may still rise, so buy more now

In addition to stimulating consumer demand, the AVIC Securities report analyzed that the recent rebound in pig prices also has the effect of supply-side factors

Related listed company revenue improvement

The impact of the rebound in pig prices has begun to be reflected in the sales briefings of related listed companies

The sales price of live pigs of Muyuan shares in October has rebounded

Tianbang shares recently stated on the interactive platform that the price of live pigs is more sensitive to the relationship between supply and demand than retail terminals, and the fluctuation range is greater.

The reporter noticed that as the price of live pigs has stabilized, since September, the live pig sector in the A-share market has also seen a wave of rebound

Wind data shows that as of the close of November 25, Muyuan shares have risen by 23.

Shenwan Hongyuan issued a research report and pointed out that the current pig companies are making every effort to reduce costs, and the absolute amount of corporate performance losses will be significantly reduced.

CPI expected to remain stable

According to industry insiders, pig prices may fluctuate slightly this winter and next spring, but it is difficult to conclude that a cyclical turning point has occurred.

Li Sujie, an analyst at Zhuo Chuang Information, said that the demand for live pigs in December may meet the highest peak of the year, especially around the winter solstice.
It is a concentrated period of cured meat and enema.
The increase in the centralized stocking of pork will support the price of pork
.
A vendor in Xinfadi said that from previous years, the peak pork consumption season generally lasts until the Spring Festival, and the price often reaches a high point during the Spring Festival holiday
.

Luo Zhiheng, deputy dean of the Yuekai Securities Research Institute, said that the recent rebound in pork prices was mainly stimulated by short-term factors, which did not change the oversupply situation in the live pig market
.
Pork prices are still at a bottom in the short term, and there may be a second bottom after the Spring Festival.
It is expected that the second half of 2022 will usher in the turning point of this cycle
.

As the heavier part of the CPI composition, will the rebound in pork prices lead to an increase in CPI? Liu Xuezhi, a senior researcher at the Development Research Department of the Bank of Communications, believes that the price of pigs is undergoing a stage of bottoming and rebounding.
Affected by this, the CPI increase may expand in the future, but the increase will be more moderate
.
Sun Fu, chief macro analyst at West China Securities, said that CPI growth will expand in the future, but there is little pressure
.