Poor operation of feed industry in the first half of the year

Introduction: OA show ('918 '); the price of feed raw materials is rising as a whole, and the end products are not rising but falling, so the benefit of feed industry is greatly affected Corn price remained low before May, but the spot price of soybean meal remained between 3800-4200 yuan / ton Especially after May, the spot price of corn rebounded, the price of soybean meal soared, and the cost pressure of feed enterprises was very high The gross profit per unit processing of poultry and pig feed fell to less than 100 yuan / ton, which can only maintain the balance of profit and loss, or even a small loss Due to the sharp rise in the price of fish meal, most of the enterprises are in the state of low profit or capital preservation In the first half of hh9, the feed industry experienced several twists and turns, especially the poultry industry The event of "fast growing chicken" appeared in December 2012, which depressed the price of poultry and restricted the supply of meat and poultry At the end of March, there was an outbreak of "avian flu" The price of poultry products plummeted The price of poultry seedlings dropped by 80% The willingness to make up the market fell to the freezing point, and the amount of poultry on hand decreased significantly From the middle and late of April to June, the poultry production decreased significantly, especially in May According to the monitoring of poultry feed processing in Guangdong and North China Hebei, in May, the duck feed decreased by about 20% and the chicken feed decreased by about 40%, among which the meat feed decreased the most In terms of pig feed, it can still maintain a certain growth rate in the first half of the year, but the growth rate is significantly lower than that in 2012 After the price of hh9 pig feed was lowered from March to April, the price of corn rose due to the sharp rise of soybean meal price in May, and the ex factory price of pig feed slightly increased in June However, restricted by the bleak downstream aquaculture industry, the space for feed mills to raise prices is limited In terms of hh9 aquaculture materials, due to the slow rise of temperature in the south this year, the aquaculture seedling production in Guangdong, Guangdong and Fujian coastal areas was delayed for about two weeks After June, the demand for aquatic products increased significantly, and the output increased significantly on a month on month basis In terms of cost, due to the price of miscellaneous meal and fish meal rising sharply, the cost is significantly higher than that in 2012, but the price of downstream aquatic products is relatively good, there is a large space for raising the price of aquatic products, and the profit of aquatic products is slightly better than that of poultry and pigs Hh9 outlook in the second half of 2013: the poor operation of feed industry in the first half of 2013 is mainly due to the pressure of raw material cost and the low demand for feed This situation will change significantly in the second half of the year In the aspect of hh9 poultry feed, after September, the demand for poultry feed will return to the level before the h7n9 influenza epidemic, and the cost pressure will drop In August, the probability of improving the operation of poultry feed enterprises is higher It is estimated that in 2013, the production of meat and poultry materials will be reduced by 5% ~ 10% year on year, and the performance of egg and poultry materials will be slightly better, with a year-on-year decrease of 0 ~ 5% In terms of hh9 pig feed, the corn mildew rate in Northeast China is generally on the high side this year, with low bulk density and tight supply of high-quality corn It is expected that the cost of raw materials for pig feed corn will increase before the new corn goes on the market, and the processing profit will hardly be improved significantly However, in the second half of this year, the demand season for pig feed corn will come, and the sales situation will be better The annual output of pig feed increased by 10% ~ 15% year on year, lower than the increase in 2012 In terms of hh9 aquatic feed, the sales situation of aquatic feed from July to September is optimistic It is estimated that the growth rate of production in 2013 will be 8% - 10%, slightly lower than that in 2012, when there is no large-scale disease in the later stage In general, hh9's industrial feed output will continue to maintain stable growth in 2013, and full price feedstock will continue to occupy the market space of concentrate and premix Large feed enterprise groups continue to expand production capacity, some small feed enterprises' living space is squeezed again, and the degree of industrial concentration is significantly improved HH9