Poor access to imported soybeans

Introduction: last Wednesday, soybean futures on the Chicago Board of trade (CBOT) closed higher for the third consecutive day, but the closing price was off the intraday high due to the change of weather forecast again and the reduced threat of frost in the northern region Soybean futures for November 2004 were up 10 cents at 637.25 cents a bushel, while September soybeans were up 9.25 cents at 636.5 cents CBOT is closed for labor day in the United States next week Spot soybean prices in the United States rose moderately, mainly due to the impact of Chicago soybean futures prices continued to rise, but the soybean base in the inland and export markets continued to fall, continuing Tuesday's weakness, due to slower demand An analyst in Chicago said the reason for the drop in the spot basis is that demand in the export market is relatively low As the new beans in the southern region of the United States began to be harvested and listed, the soybean price in the United States did not decline On the contrary, due to the shortage of raw materials in the soybean processing plants in the central and western regions, the new beans in the southern region were purchased in succession, which boosted the spot soybean price in the United States At present, the price of Argentine soybeans in September is lower than that of American soybeans, which makes Argentine soybeans more attractive According to the annual crop survey report released by Allandale company, an American research institution, soybean production in 2004 / 05 is estimated to be 2.938 billion bushels, compared with 2.877 billion bushels predicted by the U.S Department of agriculture in August report, with an average yield of 39.1 bushels per acre The U.S Department of agriculture is due to release its September supply and demand report on September 10 On Thursday, the U.S Department of Agriculture released its weekly export sales report According to Dow Jones' survey of market analysts, the sales range of Chen Dou in the U.S is expected to be negative from 25000 tons to 25000 tons in the week ending August 26, compared with 17500 tons last week Sales of new beans in the US range from 300000 to 400000 tons, compared with 236500 tons last week Brazil exported 2 million tons of soybeans in August, down 19% from 2.47 million tons in the same period last year, according to data released by secex, Brazil's foreign trade department It is also lower than the export volume of 2.38 million tons in July Brazil exported 1.16 million tons of soybean meal in August, down 23% from 1.51 million tons in the same period last year That's down from 1.24 million tons in July Argentine traders said there were rumors that Chinese mills bought two ships of Argentine soybeans on Monday and shipped them in early September There have been rumors that China bought two or three ships of Argentine soybeans on Friday, but neither deal has been confirmed Traders said that Argentina still had a lot of soybeans to sell this year, while Chinese buyers were looking for the cheapest soybeans, so they bought Argentine soybeans Recently, with the gradual consumption of domestic soybean stock and the coming of new season soybeans in the northern hemisphere, the purchase of imported soybeans by domestic oil plants began to show a seasonal growth However, through the comparison of historical data, we found that the road for domestic oil plants to buy new season soybeans in the United States is not smooth at present Recently, the demand for imported soybeans has been growing very limited As of August 28 last year, the total amount of soybeans purchased by China from the United States in 2003 / 04 reached 1.857 million tons, accounting for more than 25% of the export sales of soybeans in the United States at that time As of August 19 this year, the number of new season soybeans purchased by China from the United States in 2004 / 05 was only between 800000 and 90000 tons, although the sales of new season soybeans to China in the weekly sales report of the U.S Department of agriculture in the same period was concerned But more than 60% of them are intentional contracts signed in December last year China's soybean contracts were seriously broken in the early stage, and now foreign investors are still worried At present, some large coastal oil plants in China are obviously short of the sources of soybeans that can be pressed and imported (mainly southern oil plants), and the supply of soybeans in the later period is also very tight Because these oil plants cancelled many soybean import contracts in the first half of this year, most of the international suppliers suffered huge losses, and they have a strong sense of distrust for Chinese oil plants not to abide by the contracts At present, almost all of them supply soybeans All the suppliers do not offer C & F quotation publicly, but in the face of the rising international soybean market price, the enthusiasm of domestic manufacturers to buy American new season soybeans has increased significantly, but the import contract signed with FOB price accounts for the absolute proportion And officially, the biggest problem in the soybean trade between China and the United States is China's No 73 law The United States hopes that China can consider suspending or revoking the law, rather than extending the validity of the Quarantine License for six months China has made a clear response to us concerns, reiterating that the new agricultural import regulations "will not affect us trade in soybeans and other commodities." Therefore, it can be seen that the loss of credibility of Chinese soybean buyers has become the main reason for the lingering fear of international soybean traders The state's macro-control will continue, and some oil plants will still face financial constraints In the first half of the year, the price of domestic and foreign soybean market soared and plummeted, most of the domestic oil plants had weak market risk awareness, suffered huge losses, and the purchase volume of feed enterprises was not significantly enlarged in the early stage, which led to the slow recovery of domestic oil plants' funds In addition, the high price of imported soybeans to Hong Kong in the early stage was still to be further digested, so the shutdown rate of oil plants was relatively high in the near future At the time of Xindou's listing, some enterprises will still face difficulties in capital turnover According to the guidance of national policies, the current macro-control measures are still in a critical period and have achieved initial results In the second half of the year, the state will continue to strengthen macro-control, and the bank credit funds will be further compressed Therefore, there are still major difficulties in oil factory loans, while the credit of international suppliers With the crisis, the formulation of contracts will be more stringent, which will eventually lead to a decline in the purchase volume of imported soybeans by Chinese buyers The soybean price of CBOT is affected by the weather, and has the rising power in the later period CBOT soybean futures market is currently out of the weather market, the US fund for weather theme speculation is common In recent years, the weather in soybean producing areas of the United States has changed a lot, and the price of CBOT soybean has come out of the obvious oscillation market Recent weather forecast said that the northern part of the soybean growing belt in the United States may encounter frost weather, so the supported soybean price in the United States has been rising strongly in recent days After the market hype, the hot spot of US fund hype is the international soybean market, especially the demand of Chinese buyers After all, China is the world's top soybean importer But at present, international traders are afraid to sign soybean import contracts with Chinese buyers Due to the shortage of funds, Chinese oil companies will not rapidly enlarge the amount of purchase into the market, so it will become a negative factor affecting the period price of CBOT soybean in the short term But the American government's "benefiting the people" thought, even if there is no demand, will regulate the market on the supply and demand report data Moreover, the actual crushing demand of the Chinese market is still huge, and the domestic new beans can not meet the "big appetite" at all So the slow pace of Chinese buyers' purchase of imported soybeans may only be short-lived To sum up, due to the contract breaking of a large number of imported soybeans in the first half of the year, the road for Chinese buyers to buy new season soybeans in the United States is not smooth at present American exporters are also very cautious about the purchase of Chinese oil plants, and Chinese oil plants will continue to face the problem of capital shortage due to the continuous domestic macroeconomic control The decrease of China's demand for new beans from the United States may be short-lived, but in the long run, it is inevitable that CBOT soybean prices will rise more than fall It is necessary for Chinese oil companies to continue to be vigilant against the actions of American funds, so as to prevent the dilemma of "closing positions" in the later stage of large-scale purchase, so as to pay high tuition fees again