Policy intervention and market blindness in China's soybean import market

Introduction: according to economic theory, under the market economy system, the price and supply and demand of social goods are mainly dominated by the market As Keynesian theory says, market is an "invisible hand" and continuously adjusts the price and supply-demand relationship of social goods in a dynamic way As a kind of commodity, soybean can't get rid of the control of market When the domestic soybean market is in short supply, the price will rise and the import volume will increase, so as to restrain the further rise of soybean price; when the domestic market is in oversupply, the soybean price will fall, and the import will decrease or even stop, so as to achieve the purpose of balancing the market price However, this year's soybean market in China is in line with the operation law of this market economy? The answer is No In fact, since this year, China's soybean import market has been affected by two policies and regulations issued by the government In addition, domestic traders have a one-sided understanding of the policy and misestimation of the situation, thus forming the unique characteristics of China's soybean import market this year As we all know, the first relevant policy of this year is the regulation on the safety management of genetically modified organisms (GMOs), which was issued on June 6 After the promulgation of the regulations, many domestic traders mistakenly believed that soybean import would be braked, market supply and demand would be tightened, and soybean prices were expected to rise As a result, "Eight Immortals cross the sea, each showing their own magic power" They are eager to find sources of goods, dig relationships, find ways to import soybeans through various channels (the simplest way is to raise the signing date to before June 6), resulting in soybean import volume Soaring From January to October this year, China imported 12.0611 million tons of soybeans, a substantial increase of 35.2% compared with 8.92 million tons in the same period of last year, which greatly exceeded the normal growth range and severely impacted the domestic soybean market During this period, we saw that the blindness of traders did not objectively analyze market demand and act according to market rules In fact, the genetically modified policy was intended to suppress the dumping of foreign low-cost soybeans to China and protect the interests of farmers, but it turned out to be counterproductive Fortunately, the government has the ability to detect and correct mistakes, so in September, it issued a second official order, namely, strict inspection and licensing system for soybeans arriving in Hong Kong After the introduction of the order, the import of all soybeans was stopped immediately, which should be said to have reached the intention of the competent authorities Let's take a look at the Customs Statistics: in October, China imported 897700 tons of soybeans, an increase of 57.5% compared with the same period last year, but a decrease of 44% compared with the previous month According to COFCO analysts, in fact, 500000 tons of soybeans imported in October came to Hong Kong in September Only because China's quality inspection is strict and it can't unload on time, did it delay its arrival in October In other words, in October, China actually imported only 400000 tons of soybeans Of course, this is also the result of US President Bush's consultation with Chinese leaders at the APEC meeting Otherwise, the number of soybean arrivals in October may be less In September, the quantity of imported soybeans should be 2.1 million tons In fact, such a huge contrast between soybean imports in September and October is not the product of a normal market economy, but the interference of non market factors The above examples show that before entering WTO, the soybean market in China is still in a disordered and highly regulated environment In this kind of environment, subjective and artificial factors are easy to become the leading forces that influence the market Therefore, the disadvantages of our soybean market caused by government intervention and market blindness are unavoidable (author:) share to feed Weibo share to: