Piglets out of the column cost up to 2071 yuan / head! Pig prices in the second half of the year or slow down to.

From the growth cycle of pigs, after the third quarter, with the continuous recovery of the number of pigs and breeding sows in the country, the supply of pigs will increase, while overlaying the rain in the south of the weather relief, local pig prices are expected to be adjusted.
1 piglets out of the column total cost increased to 2071 yuan / head Wind data show that since the second quarter of 2019, pig feed and fattening pig feed has generally experienced two rounds of relatively obvious price increases, in recent months the price is also significantly higher, the two from At the beginning of the year, 2.48 yuan/kg and 2.64 yuan/kg rose to 2.79 yuan/kg and 2.91 yuan/kg in early August - this does not include other cost increases such as site equipment maintenance, logistics and transportation, water, electricity, medicine, etc.
if measured by total cost, the total cost of piglets has soared from 422 yuan/head at the end of June 2019 to 2071 yuan/head in early August 2020.
2 Pig and can breed sow storage column slowly resumed According to ZhuoTron information monitoring, from March 2019 to July 2020, the number of pig storage column in 118 large-scale aquaculture enterprises nationwide showed an upward trend, of which 4.99 percent month-on-month in July, up 28.91 percent year-on-year.
In July, the resumption of production in the north was good, the scale of the field expanded rapidly, continued to pick piglets outside, the southern part of the flood and non-plague "head-up" affected by the decline in the storage column, but the scale of the field biosecurity prevention and control is relatively perfect, the impact is limited, the overall increase in pig stock.
addition, the stock of sows can continue to rise, and because of the small base, the increase is more obvious than pigs.
monitoring of the number of sows in July rose 9.76 percent month-on-month, up 63.93 percent year-on-year.
the first half of the year pig prices high operation, scale farms to resume production actively, some enterprises in order to complete the annual column plan to choose the outside pig, can breed sow storage column growth faster.
rainstorms and high temperatures in the north and south in August, the risk of non-plague transmission remains high, and the breeding end-replenishment column is also affected, with the pace or slowing down.
However, the supply of piglets continued to increase, coupled with pig prices remain high, the scale of the farm to supplement the piglets active, it is expected that the number of pig stocks in August continued to increase, but the increase narrowed;
the long term, the slow recovery of pig and sow storage is an inevitable trend.
3 in the second half of the pig prices slowly reduced mainly, the lowest is still "30 yuan" above mid-to-late August, the slow recovery of production capacity in the north, the scale of the field out of the column plan also increased, coupled with some of the secondary fattening pig source to reach the column weight, supply tension eased.
and the opening of the school season and other good to the consumption boost is limited, the terminal is difficult to have a significant improvement, pig prices slowly fell back, the average price in August or fell to 37.10 yuan / kg.
local capacity in the south was damaged in September-October, but the gap period ended and overall supply was still increasing.
holiday and the custom of "sticking autumn" have boosted demand, but high prices have curbed consumption, coupled with the impact of low-cost frozen goods, the demand boost is limited.
expected the price of pigs to remain on a downward trend from September to October, with the average price falling to 30.80 yuan per kilogram in October.
November-December, north and south have entered the peak period of pickled enemas, coupled with the Spring Festival approaching, although the consumption increase is difficult to match the previous years, but there may be a more obvious increase.
supply side continued to increase, but at a slower pace, demand increase is greater than the increase in supply, pig prices are expected to rebound or stop falling, but not by much, the average price of pigs out of the column in December or rose to 32.00 yuan / kg.
4 to improve the pig industry chain, to protect the interests of farmers however, compared to the simple price of pork up and down, there are more things worthy of our attention.
pull long axis can be found that in recent years, pork prices have been commonplace, "high prices hurt people, low prices hurt farmers" play code is repeatedly staged, which also formed a well-known "pig cycle."
it is true that the formation of the "pig cycle" is closely related to various external factors, but the root of the problem is still the pig industry chain's ability to resist market fluctuations and risks is poor, resulting in the pork market can not be long-term smooth operation and healthy development.
and the first crux of the problem is that farmers are in a weak position in the pig industry chain.
we know that raising pigs is a technical job, by no means feeding pigs to kill meat so simple.
the whole process is complex, involving feed, feeding, breeding, circulation, slaughtering, processing and many other links, they are ring-linking, together forming the so-called pig industry chain.
In this, pig breeding is the core of the entire industrial chain, directly determines the market capacity and structure of pig feed and slaughter processing, but this core link does not enjoy the "core" treatment;
With the rising cost of all kinds of breeding, as well as the difficulty of loans and the scale of breeding land difficulties of the high situation, if the long-term, will inevitably discourage the enthusiasm of farmers farming, choose to give up pig farming in the market depression, seriously affecting the number of pig storage column and pork market supply scale.
, on the other hand, the unethical bargaining power of each link indirectly leads to the information asymmetry between the nodes of the pig industry chain.
Because pig purchasers have a wide range of coverage, they have a much better grasp of market supply and demand information than ordinary pig farmers, which often leaves farmers in a completely passive position when trading.
Farmers can not be the first time to learn the real needs of the market, also can not carry out scientific and reasonable breeding and production, and even if the risk hit, feed enterprises and slaughter processing and circulation enterprises can even join forces to lower the purchase price or "cost transfer" and "homeopathic price increase", the market risk transferred to farmers.
When "small production" in the face of the "big market", it is very easy to make mistakes in decision-making and suffer greater economic losses, coupled with the low degree of industrialization of pigs, strong psychological psychology, often there will be a cacophontic up or down, resulting in the size of pig supply and pork market prices of large shocks.
this factor is the root cause of the continued surge in pork prices.
china is a big consumer of pork, the rise and fall of pork prices is bound to affect the daily lives of thousands of households.
Long-term, in order to truly achieve the smooth operation of the pork market, we should start from the fundamental, and effectively solve the problems existing in the pig industry chain, and strive to promote the whole industry to become bigger and stronger.
this is the only way to make pork an eloxual luxury.
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