Pig sales continue to be hot, breeding pigs imported up to 10637 head!

August pig sales continued to be hot September 7, a number of listed pig breeding companies released August sales and production data, data show that each company's sales volume has seen double-digit growth, continuing the first half of the hot market.
, Zhengbang Technology sold 1.0712 million pigs in August, up 17.47 percent month-on-month and 232.93 percent year-on-year.
, sales revenue reached RMB3.870 billion, up 23.67 percent month-on-month and 534.65 percent year-on-year.
Since 2020, domestic pig prices rebounded after the decline, high market profits and industry-good policy support, strong enterprises to accelerate the introduction of species, with the continuous optimization of species and genetic resources continue to enrich, pig production capacity continues to improve.
Previously, in response to a 21st century economic reporter's question about the pig market, Liu Yongxuan, chairman of New Hope Group, said that since last year, China's stock of sows has fallen by 40%, piglet production capacity is insufficient, resulting in a sharp rise in pork prices, now and in the past period far more than double the average price.
" this pig cycle, may last longer.
" Liu Yong-good said, "but as many enterprises join the pig farming industry, pork production capacity will continue to recover, and in the following year there is the possibility of oversupply and prices falling below the cost line."
"Pork stock executives empty "tongue war"! Tang People God chairman said pork will fall to 4-5 yuan, New Hope executives said it is impossible recently, Tang People God chairman said, according to incomplete statistics, China's major pig-breeding enterprises have announced the size of pig projects under construction or will be built will reach 2 billion head, while China's pork consumption is only 650 million head, the future pig industry may appear overcapacity.
an industry insider told reporters that such calculations are relatively idealistic.
" in fact, from pig project planning, to construction to the real pig out of the column, it takes a considerable period of time, during which with the market and price changes, breeding enterprises can adjust at any time.
industry said, "that's how long it will take for overcapacity to actually occur."
," according to the financial industry website, on September 7th New Hope held a meeting of analysts, with new president Zhang Minggui appearing at the meeting.
In response to a news report that "the layout of pig production can reach 2 billion head, pig prices may even fall to four or five yuan", the company said that the source of information on market rumors is questionable, and the logic behind this, from the perspective of practitioners is not able to stand up to scrutiny.
New Hope President said that once the price of pigs fell below 20 yuan, or even a little lower, fell below most of the breeding cost line, the expansion of enterprises and farmers will mostly choose to wait and see or clear, it is not possible to continue to fall to the level of 4 yuan to 5 yuan.
domestic enterprises to accelerate the expansion of production, the introduction of purebred pigs in the year has reached 10,637 this year, domestic enterprises in pig farming accelerated layout.
, after the first introductions, the Sichuan area again introduced 1040 30-80 kg of raw pigs from Denmark in September, following the first introductions.
in addition to 60 days of quarantine in Denmark, after entering Sichuan to plant pigs to carry out 45 days of quarantine.
at the same time Zhengbang Group in order to expand pig resources and supporting bloodline, plans to attract 10,000 pigs from France, Denmark, Canada, to meet the company's pig breeding expansion efforts.
according to Zhuo Tsing information, as of September, the domestic introduction of breeding broke the five-year data high, the number of purebred pigs into the country as high as 10,637 head, horizontal comparison hit a new high of nearly five years.
in the past five years, more than 10,000 thoroughbred pigs have been introduced in 2017, and the rest of the time is well below that figure.
" by the source of species restrictions, the three yuan brought about by the breeding capacity and cycle is too short defects, is still a greater resistance to the resumption of production in the industry.
" ZhuoTron information analyst Wang Lingyun told reporters, "later with the scale of enterprises to increase the intensity of breeding, domestic upstream capacity expansion or continuously strengthen, the year of pig entry or more than 15,000 head."
" under the influence of African swine fever, pig farming after 2018 into a difficult situation, resulting in a growing supply gap from the second half of 2019, pig prices rose sharply, pig farming profits are getting higher and higher, breeding end of the resumption of production enthusiasm continues to improve, the demand for breeding pigs, piglets surge.
policy perspective, in order to reduce the "non-plague" epidemic brought about by the industry hit hard, to promote the speed of the resumption of production, provinces and cities to stabilize production and supply policies have been introduced, pig subsidies, loans, insurance policy support greatly increased.
, early-stage pig farming companies made a large profit in the first half of this year.
in the first half of this year, 20 of the 25 listed pig enterprises achieved a year-on-year increase in home-to-home net profit, of which 15 achieved a year-on-year growth rate of more than 100% in home-grown net profit, and Makhara shares, Dabei Nong, Xin Wufeng, Ao Nong Bio achieved a year-on-year increase of more than 10 times in home-to-home net profit.
According to Jianxin futures data, as of August 31, the average profit of domestic self-breeding pig heads was 3052.79 yuan/head, a decrease of 94.58 yuan/head from the end of the previous month, a decrease of 3.01%, pig material ratio of 13.42, an increase of 0.16 percentage points month-on-month.
" pig head profit from may last year around 200 yuan / head all the way up, to the end of October rose to 3155 yuan / head.
" Wang Lingyun said, "after that, except in May this year fell to about 1300 yuan, profits have remained high volatility."
" follow-up or inflection point follow-up market, the most important factor affecting the pig market is supply.
From this year's pork price trend, from April to May there has been a large and rapid decline in pig prices, from about 30 yuan / kg all the way down to 23 yuan / kg in mid-May, but then there has been a rapid recovery, all the way up to the current 34 yuan / kg or so.
the seeds of this round of pig price increases were planted in January.
because of the winter and spring piglets diarrhea, routine and other outbreaks led to a significant reduction in piglet survival rate, and then led to June-July domestic pigs out of the column, become the main reason for this round of price increases.
Under the pressure of the rapidly rising pig prices, the downstream demand in June, July and August is not optimistic, coupled with the hot weather, pork digestion speed into a slow cycle, July and August downstream slaughtering enterprises to maintain a relatively low operating rate, but also affected the pig sales of some listed companies.
september 2019, the overall pace of resumption of production on the aquaculture side has accelerated, and by August 2020 the production capacity of large-scale enterprises has entered the release period, and with the arrival of the fourth quarter, production capacity may be increasing trend.
Jianxin Futures expects pig stock to grow by about 28% in December 2020 from February, with a slower growth than expected in August, but a smaller increase and an expansion in September-November.
At the same time, the substantial increase in the number of pigs out of the column to August, and by March 2021 will continue to grow, when the increase compared to August or in the 10%-15% range, so it is expected that the third quarter of this year's monthly column volume is still about 30 million head, compared with the second quarter is basically flat;
"because prices are still relatively high, there will be some pressure bar situation, so september pork prices are relatively limited room for decline."
" Wang Lingyun said, "but into October to November, there will be a large number of pig release on the supply side, but the demand side has not yet entered the traditional winter season, pork prices and profits will have a lot of room for decline."
"However, the current rate of capacity recovery is not without interference, June-July in the south of the heavy rainfall, flooding, "non-plague" outbreak, resulting in varying degrees of damage to production capacity, the number of columns at the end of this year and early next year still has a certain degree of uncertainty.
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