Pig prices in the second half of the year are not optimistic?

 　　Recently, the official released a set of production data.
Among them, the stock of reproductive sows in July fell by 0.
5% year-on-year.
This was the first decline in 20 consecutive months of rising month-on-month.
However, compared with the previous African swine fever, the data still showed A year-on-year increase of 10%, which also shows that the market is adequately supplied
.

　　Capacity may peak, but supply pressure is still huge8cF China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　It is understood that in June 2021, the number of reproductive sows in China was 45.
64 million, an increase of 25.
7% year-on-year, which was the same month-on-month; while the number of reproductive sows in July fell by 0.
5% year-on-year, which is the number of reproductive sows since October 2019.
The sow experienced a decline for the first time after 20 months of continuous growth
.

　　Although the production capacity has stopped increasing month-on-month, the current year-on-year level of production capacity is still very high.
Compared with the number before the outbreak of African swine fever in August 2018, the stock of reproductive sows in July of that year (the same caliber as the current value) It has not been announced directly, but we can infer it based on the chain growth value over the years.
The current stock of reproductive sows has probably increased by at least 10% year-on-year compared with 3 years ago.
That is to say, the current reproductive sows are still at High level in history
.
8cF China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Pork consumption rebounded, hardly worthy of a surge in production this year8cF China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　With the fall in pork prices, it is bound to drive the consumption of live pigs, but we believe that we should be cautious about this view
.
In 2020, due to high meat prices, per capita pork consumption fell to 18.
2 kg, accounting for about 73% of that year’s meat consumption.
Based on this judgment, pork consumption did not increase significantly with the increase in per capita income.
It is showing the momentum of interval fluctuations
.
This is because people’s meat diet is gradually diversifying, and on the other hand, it is also because of price
.
Based on this, it can be judged that this year's low meat prices will definitely promote an increase in pork consumption, but from the experience of previous years, this increase is at most about 10%
.
8cF China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Judging from the current situation, there is no sign of slowing down in the number of pigs for slaughter in the second half of the year.
Judging from the situation of the 15 live pig breeding companies that have been listed, the cumulative number of pigs for slaughter in the first half of this year reached 42.
74 million, accounting for the total number of pigs in the country.
In half a year, 13% of the total number of slaughtered pigs, and the four largest companies such as Muyuan, Zhengbang Technology, Wen's shares, New Hope Six and the six largest companies accounted for about 10% of the country’s half-year slaughter.
Therefore, we can analyze the trends of these companies.
Roughly judge the situation in the second half of the year
.
At present, most of the leading companies have announced their sales in July.
Among them, Muyuan shares sold 3.
01 million heads, a cumulative increase of 138%, Zhengbang Technology sold 1.
75 million heads, a cumulative increase of 141%, and New Hope Liuhe sold 630,000 heads, a cumulative increase.
91%, the growth rate of Wen's shares, which has only the outsourced piglet model, only increased by 7%
.
8cF China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　For other companies with a sales scale of less than one million, most of the sales growth rates are between 50% and 200%.
It should be said that the above-mentioned growth rate of the supply of live pigs has been surprising, but according to the plans of these companies, it seems that they will still be in the second half of the year.
Increase horsepower to further expand the hurdle volume
.
At present, many self-reproducing and self-raising head companies have basically completed the elimination of low-efficiency sows and supplemented a large number of high-quality breeding pigs and breeding sows.
In the second half of the year, competition in the pig market may become more intense
.
For pig prices, the market in the second half of the year is still unspeakably optimistic
.
8cF China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　The increase in meat yield per pig makes the pig market worse8cF China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　The live weight of live pigs this year is significantly higher than last year, which means that the same number of live pigs can provide more meat.
In the spring, due to the deliberate pressure on the slaughter market by farmers, the proportion of fat in the slaughter pigs once exceeded 30%.
As the price of pigs fell and the slaughter of big fat pigs was concentrated, the live weight of slaughter began to drop
.
According to the survey data of Yongyi Consulting, the live weight of live pigs collected from sample farms across the country reached the highest in early and mid-May, between 137kg and 138kg/head, and then continued to decline in June and July.
The situation shows that the average live weight in mid-to-early August was about 129kg/head, which was indeed a drop of about 6% from the previous peak.
However, this level is still the same as in early March and basically the same as the same period last year
.
8cF China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　From the perspective of slaughter volume, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has not announced the slaughter volume for July at present, but according to the sample data of Yongyi Consulting, the slaughter volume in July was about 4.
38 million heads, an increase of 8% from the previous month; the slaughter volume in early August was about An increase of 10% compared to July.
Of course, due to sample size and statistical caliber issues, this data may sometimes not be consistent with national data.
However, in general, the off-season increase in the slaughter volume in July and August is a high probability event.
This means that the slaughter volume in the three months of June, July, and August may be the highest since statistics
.
8cF China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry