Pig prices hit a new low in nearly 10 weeks!

 　　The latest data disclosed on the National Development and Reform Commission website shows that in the first week of September, the national live pig price was 14.
96 yuan/kg, which once again fell below the 15 yuan/kg mark, down 3.
55% from last week
.
This is the 7th consecutive week that the price of live pigs has fallen.
It has reached a new low of nearly 10 weeks and is approaching the 28-month low set at the end of June
.
4CP China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Near the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, it should have been the peak season for pork consumption
.
However, the price of live pigs continues to fall, and the price of live pig futures has been falling all the way.
The pig industry has failed to usher in the long-awaited peak season rebound window
.
4CP China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　The reporter learned through various interviews that the peak season is not busy, and the unfavorable factors such as feed price increase and large fertilizer pressure have been added, and scattered farmers have processed live pigs into bacon in advance in an attempt to reduce losses
.
The capital market is also cautious about the downward phase of the pig cycle, believing that the current market has not yet bottomed out
.
Correspondingly, listed companies such as Tang Renshen are actively planning to expand production, believing that the pig cycle is inevitable.
Only by controlling costs and managing them can they safely pass the bottom of the market and usher in the market's brightest moments
.
4CP China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　01.
The adjustment range has been deep and the cycle has not yet bottomed out4CP China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Since the beginning of this year, the price of pork has shown a monthly downward trend.
The reporter has learned from many places that the current sales price in some places has even dropped to the level of 2016
.
4CP China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

 4CP China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　In a supermarket on the East Fourth Ring Road in Beijing, the reporter saw more than 30 types of pork on the shelves.
The staff told the reporter that the current prices of all the categories have been reduced.
To 12 yuan, a drop of nearly 40%, and pork belly from 50 yuan to 25 yuan, a drop of 50%
.
4CP China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

 4CP China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Li Lingxiao, a staff member of a supermarket in Beijing: Prices have been declining steadily since the beginning of the year, with an average drop of 50%
.
4CP China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　The reporter visited a number of meat wholesale markets and supermarkets in Beijing and found that pork prices at these points of sale have declined from the beginning of the year to the present, and some of the largest declines have even exceeded 60%
.
4CP China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

 4CP China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　A supermarket purchase Liu Xiaoyu in Beijing: Our supply has increased the production capacity of pork.
Now the supply of all stores is relatively sufficient, and we have increased the resources (supply) of many production areas
.
4CP China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　02.
The adjustment range has been deep and the cycle has not yet bottomed out4CP China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　"The adjustment range is enough, but the adjustment time is not enough
.
" A private equity fund manager told reporters his views, "Currently, the pig-to-food ratio has fallen below 5, and in some areas it has fallen to 4.
3, and the head loss is as high as 900 yuan.
, This adjustment range is an incredible bottoming signal in any previous pig cycle
.
However, the down phase of the pig cycle is generally 25 months, the shortest down cycle is 20 months, and the longest down cycle is 31 Months
.
Since the current decline in April, the adjustment time is far from enough in the past 4 months.
We do not rule out the possibility of a new low.
We maintain our outlook
.
"4CP China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Since September, the main contract of live pig futures has fallen from 17,237 yuan per ton to 16,000 yuan per ton, a decline of 7.
17%
.
The above-mentioned private equity fund manager said: “Pig farming is a market with scattered production capacity and rigid demand.
The market structure determines that it will help rise and fall from time to time
.
From the market we track, in recent years, the pig cycle has accelerated divergence, not only The bottom is lower and the peak is higher, and the cycle is also lengthening
.
"4CP China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　03.
Pig prices fall, feed prices rise, and scattered farmers stop loss and leave the market4CP China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Not only is the capital market pessimistic about the future of the pig industry, but also individual households have moved from wait and see to stop loss and leave the market
.
Big pig farmer Liu Yiyou has contacted the local bacon workshop, preparing to process the large fat from the pen into bacon at one time, hoping to reduce feed, water, electricity, and labor costs
.
Recently, feed prices have risen sharply, and the prices of superimposed pigs have continued to fall, which has put greater pressure on individual farmers
.
Liu Yiyou calculated an account with reporters: “It’s most uneconomical to put a lot of fat on the fence.
High temperatures can easily cause diseases and cause great losses.
The consumption of feed is also an expense
.
The corn needed for pig raising in the south needs to be supplied from the north, and the logistics costs are high.
It’s also an expense
.
Maybe it’s better to raise pigs in the northern corn belt
.
"4CP China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　However, what he thought was "a little better" did not happen
.
On the contrary, on September 7, the domestic feed industry ushered in a "general upsurge"
.
New Hope, Zhengbang Technology, and Tongwei Co.
, Ltd.
have successively issued price increase notices, involving multiple product lines such as concentrated feed and suckling pig feed.
The increase is between 50 yuan and 150 yuan per ton
.
Caixin Futures analyst Hu Shiyao told reporters: "US corn and soybean futures are operating at relatively high levels in history, coupled with high shipping logistics costs, the global supply chain is not operating smoothly, which will have an upward impact on downstream feed costs, and feed factories will inevitably transmit downstream.
Cost pressure
.
From our observations, the recovery of global consumption is earlier than the recovery of agriculture and logistics.
The demand for food and feed has rebounded strongly, and the transmission effect of feed cost pressure may continue until next year or even the next year
.
"4CP China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　04.
Bravely embrace the cycle and practice internal management skills4CP China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　The capital market is pessimistic about the market outlook, scattered households stop loss and leave the market, but listed companies are moving forward against the trend
.
On the evening of September 1, Tang Renshen announced that as of August 31, 2021, about 7.
15 million shares of the company were repurchased through a centralized auction through a special securities account for share repurchase, accounting for 0.
59% of the company’s current total share capital, the highest transaction price It is 7.
33 yuan/share, the lowest transaction price is 5.
65 yuan/share, and the transaction amount is about 45.
35 million yuan
.
Tang Renshen said that he continued to recognize the company's intrinsic value and was optimistic about the prospects for subsequent development, so he increased his holdings of repurchase shares in the secondary market
.
4CP China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　On the evening of September 6, Tangrenshen announced that in order to optimize resource allocation, integrate industrial resources in Guangdong Province, and expand the scale of the industry, the company plans to invest in the establishment of Guangdong Tangrenshen Industry Development Co.
, Ltd.
(tentative name) with a registered capital of 200 million yuan.
The company holds 100% of its shares
.
4CP China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　In addition to Tang Renshen, New Hope, Tianbang shares, Zhengbang Technology and other pig raising companies have stepped up to increase their stock holdings, are optimistic about the future development prospects of the industry and the company, and express confidence and positive attitudes to the market
.
As of August 31, New Hope repurchased approximately 10.
01 million shares, accounting for 0.
2224% of the company's total share capital, and the total transaction amount was 229 million yuan
.
Tianbang shares plans to increase the holdings of the chairman and other executives by 100 million to 150 million yuan, which will be completed within six months from May 24, 2021
.
Zhengbang Technology Co.
, Ltd.
has repurchased a total of 38.
58 million shares, accounting for 1.
23% of the company's total share capital, and the total repurchase amount was 495 million yuan
.
In addition, when listed companies such as New Hope and Wen's Co.
, Ltd.
accepted institutional surveys in the past two months, they all believed that the pig industry, as a typical entity, should focus on the long-term, lay a solid foundation and practice internal skills, and not only pursue short-term financial indicators.
, And we can't just care about the current gains and losses in order to usher in the bright moments of the market
.
4CP China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Sun Shuangsheng, Secretary of the Tang Renshen's Board of Directors, told reporters: "The Tang Renshen started raising pigs in 1990, and it has been more than 30 years now
.
We have experienced multiple pig cycles
.
I personally think that pig raising companies should not be afraid of the pig cycle.
Companies cannot control the fluctuations of pig prices, but they can improve their internal skills, reduce costs, and improve labor efficiency
.
Second, don’t hide, be confident and prepared for the peak of the pig cycle, and earn more than others when the market is good.
Money, and at the bottom of the cycle, when everyone is not confident, it is even more important to do a good job in the company’s production and operation management, enhance the ability and confidence of employees, step through the bottom of the market, and usher in the market boom cycle
.
"4CP China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry