Pig prices hit a 15-year high, short-term or high.

Data for the first week of the year show that the national average price of pork has more than doubled since two years agoIn the case of a large influx of capital pork prices can go far pork prices continue to hit new highs has been China's urban and rural residents of the main meat consumer products, China's annual pig out of the tens of thousands of head of the industry market size of trillions of dollarsAnnual domestic pork production of tons accounted for pig, cattle, sheep and poultry meat production in all meat consumption structure of the firstThe cyclical fluctuation characteristics of pig prices in China are obviously typically annualSince then, the country's pig farming industry has experienced the following fluctuations in the cycle: to the year, to the year, to the year, to the year, to the year in the large cycle also has a number of small cyclesData from Western Securities show that the full cycle of pork price volatility in China is three very obvious pig cycles from now on to dateThe first cycle lasts from year to monthDue to the rapid increase in the production capacity of the previous high pig prices, the annual pork supply is greater than the demand for pig prices pig farmers began to go to production capacity coupled with some pig-producing province outbreak of pig "blue ear disease" led to the rapid de-ification of production capacity accelerated pig prices bottoming out the bottom of the annual pig price rebound by the annual global financial crisis, clenbuterol event induced consumption end of the pork demand significantly reduced led to the beginning of the decline in pig prices until the first cycle of the year formedThe second cycle lasts from year to monthIn the first half of the year, due to high fever, heavy snow in the south and corn and other feed costs rose pig prices began to rise monthly "foot-and-mouth disease" outbreak, the end of the year to spring in some provinces and regions of piglet epidemic diarrhea a series of diseases spread leading to the spread of production capacity de-production, driving pork pricesAffected by the high level of aquaculture profits, a large number of farmers to expand production capacity industry and internal and external capital continue to accelerate the pace of investment in the aquaculture industry led to a rapid increase in supply of over-year imported pork year-on-year oversupply pig prices into the downward channel until the second cycleThe third cycle lasts from the beginning of the year to the monthThe gradual implementation of environmental protection policies industry continued to de-capacity caused pig prices to rise in the year around the highest valueHigher pig prices stimulate farmers to actively farm leading to overcapacity year industry into deep losses until the bottom of the year to form a third cycleIf you look at this cycle in terms of months, it has passed months from the month to the presentData for the first week of the year show that the national average price of pork yuan has doubled from the annual yuan, which is also the year when pork prices have reached a new highThe latest round of supply-demand balance-breaking in the imbalance between supply and demand began in AfricaChina has confirmed the first outbreak of swine fever in AfricaThe outbreak of swine fever in Africa has significantly affected pig production capacity and output Data show that the annual pig stock column of 10,000 year-on-year year-on-year pig output of 10,000 year-on-yearA sharp drop in stock storage is bound to lead to a drop in pork production, which in turn will lead to a sharp rise in pork pricesData from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs show that the average annual price of live pigs in China has increased since the same period last yearAfrican swine fever completely broke the supply and demand structure of the whole industryFrom the point of view of supply and demand structure, China's average annual pork consumption is about 10,000 tonsFrom a supply perspective, the Data of the National Bureau of Statistics show that the number of pigs in the national pig column fell year-on-yearIn the same year, the national pork production decreased year-on-year, the average price per kilogram of live pigs decreased year-on-yearFrom the year-to-year perspective, the supply and demand structure is basically in equilibriumBut since the african swine plague incident, the country's pig stock column of 10,000 year-on-year decline in the year-on-year decline of 10,000 pigsIn the same year, the country's pork production decreased year-on-yearThe price of pork has risen sharply as a result of the African swine fever, which has led to a significant reduction in the supply of porkThe average price of live pigs in China increased in yuan and dollars in the previous yearThe supply and demand structure of pork has been out of balance year by yearThe reason why annual pig prices or maintain a high supply is significantly related to the structure of enterprises in the industryChina currently has tens of thousands of pig farms, among them, the annual column below the small and medium-sized households Ministry of Agriculture data show that China still has about about about out of the column of pigs from the annual column below the number of retail households out of the column more than the professional households, the proportion of pig farms of about 10,000 or more pig farms out of the column proportion less than Mutaiyuan shares is one of China's largest pig-breeding companies annual sales of pig pigs only accounted for the country's total column, which shows that the entire industry is extremely fragmented Comparing overseas data showing that the proportion of pigs in France with annual out-of-numbers in the year is about the united States and China in the year In the short term, a small-company-led industry structure has a limited impact on the industry even if large companies have plans to expand The problem with small retail investors is that production is highly volatile Generally farming small retail investors are chasing up and down when the unexpected incident will be a sharp decline in production resulting in sharp price fluctuations However, with the intensification of market competition, the impact of major events and the introduction of national animal husbandry environmental protection policies of the farmers gradually withdraw from the market competition From the concentration point of view of the annual number of domestic farms below the head of the annual column ratio from the decline to the annual column above the rapid development of the number of large-scale farms from the annual million to the annual concentration of 10,000 industry is constantly increasing The higher the concentration of the industry's supply is relatively more controllable, but the increase in industry concentration is not an overnight thing National pork production of tons and sales of about 10,000 tons have nearly 10,000 tons of supply and demand gap And the data on the sow's column are worrying Annual domestic sow storage column 10,000 year-on-year year-on-year decline in the year-on-year decline of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs means that the future domestic pig industry will have a greater production capacity gap between supply and demand Countries that have adopted a number of support policies to bridge the gap between supply and demand have been adopted The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs jointly issued a policy on pig farming to encourage pig farming in response to the call of this policy So far, some provinces have introduced a support policy for pig farming Companies are also expanding their production capacity The annual Wenshi share pig out of the column is expected to exceed the annual 10,000 head of the livestock original shares of the foreign sales of pig million head plan out of the column pig 10,000 head to 10,000 Zhengbang science and technology pig out of the column is expected to be 10,000 head Not only are existing companies raising the price of pork at higher capacity, but they are attracting new forces to join in Vanke announced that cross-border pig farming before JD.com, Ali, NetEase also joined the pig also has real estate companies, landscaping companies, chemical companies, pharmaceutical companies and other enterprises have also cross-border pig farming At the same time, the country has stepped up pork imports to maintain a balance between supply and demand Globally, China is the world's largest importer of pork, accounting for 10,000 tons of China's imports of pork China's annual import volume does not exceed 10,000 tons per year due to high domestic pig prices imported meat price advantage significantly increased to 10,000 tons of imports, but since then with the decline in pig prices imports have also decreased The outbreak of African swine fever China's imports increased with an annual increase of nearly 10,000 tons year-on-year year-on-year year-on-year growth to 10,000 tons of imports are expected to be about 10,000 tons per year In order to fill the gap between supply and demand pork imports are growing in size and growth According to the public data to organize the annual out of the column of the large eight breeding enterprises pig total column 10,000 head accounted for the total number of pigs in the country In the year, the eight breeding enterprises pig total column 10,000 head accounted for the total number of pigs in the country, although the concentration has improved but the impact is very limited The gap between supply and demand will gradually narrow over the years, but the imbalance between supply and demand will continue Therefore, pork prices have a high probability that will remain high Risks are rising dramatically from an annual perspective that pork prices have reached record highs, so risk cannot be ignored A higher increase often means greater risk Take the year as an example of the year's national pork production and sales of tons of 10,000 tons of live pigs average price of yuan kilograms The national pork production and sales volume of tons of live pigs average price of yuan kg Annual production reduced the increase in the average price of live pigs The change of pig price much greater than the change of supply and demand structure in the market is more due to the expectation of more optimistic prices in the future China from the perspective of the historical trend of U.S pork prices The lowest annual price of U.S hogs is the highest price in the U.S dollar at the end of the year The range of fluctuations in pork prices in the United States for the years to date is basically within, and the current volatility range of Chinese pork prices has risen to the highest level of pork prices, meaning a sharp rise in risk