Pig prices have risen for 9 consecutive weeks and returned to more than 10 yuan, experts: a new round of...

"The price of pork has risen during this ti.

This was also confirmed by a meat seller in a vegetable market in Fengtai, "This wave of pork prices has been rising for about a mon.

In March, the price of live pigs dropped to about 6 yuan per catty, and the price of pork in some supermarkets could be sold for less than 10 yuan per catty, but in the past two months, the situation has chang.

Hog and pork prices rose for 9 consecutive weeks

According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, from May 16 to May 22, the average purchase price of live pigs in designated slaughtering enterprises of live pigs above designated size was 129 yuan/kg, up 3% month-on-month; the average ex-factory price of white strips was 243 yuan/kg, month-on-mon.

A reporter from China-Singapore Finance and Economics combed the data and found that the average purchase price of live pigs and the average ex-factory price of white strips have risen for 9 consecutive weeks, with a cumulative increase of 17% and 18% in the 9 wee.

According to the monitoring of the National Agricultural Products Wholesale Market Price Information System, from May 20 to May 26, the price of pork was 299 yuan per kilogram, an increase of 8% month-on-month, and remained above 10 yuan per kilogr.

The price increase on the acquisition and wholesale side is also reflected in the price tag on the retail si.

Pig farmers breathe a sigh of relief as pig prices rise

The rise in pork prices has also allowed farmers to "take a breathe.

Before the price of live pigs continued to be at a low point, the industry fell into a situation of "selling one head and losing one head", and small and medium-sized farmers appeared "abandone.

The leading enterprise Muyuan shares entered the "loss" camp, with a net profit loss of 18 billion yuan attributable to shareholders of listed companies in the first quarter; Zhengbang Technology, which ranked second in live pig production in 2021, and Wen's shares, which ranked third, were listed in the first quart.

Now with the rise in pig prices, the profitability of breeding has gradually recover.

Tighter supply supports higher pork prices

Although the rise in pork prices is a good thing for farmers, why is the price rising in the recent off-season for pork consumption?

"Since July 2021, the production capacity of breeding sows has been reduced to a certain exte.

According to the pig breeding process, the number of breeding sows is about 10 months ahead of that of live pi.

According to Ma Liyuan, an analyst at Zhuochuang Information, in terms of live pig supply, under the influence of news such as Guangdong's live pig transportation policy and frozen pork purchase and storage, the industry is more bullish on the market outlo.

"In terms of demand, because pork prices are at the bottom, low prices have a certain stimulating effect on consumpti.

How long will this wave of pork price hikes last?

"In April and May, the breeding side will focus on slaughtering and reluctant to se.

However, Ma Liyuan also mentioned that the market is currently in a transition from oversupply to undersupp.

Although there is a risk of a fall in pig prices in June, the decline is limited, and the monthly average price is unlikely to hit a new low in Mar.

"Considering that the production capacity of reproductive sows has declined since July last year, it has continued until April this ye.

This also means that the resulting reduction in the supply of live pigs will continue until the beginning of next year, so the price of live pigs may continue to rebound in the later peri.

"Feng Yonghui thin.

A new round of "pig cycle" will start?

The recent rise in pork prices has also sparked speculation about the start of a new "pig cycl.

The so-called "pig cycle" is a cycle of cyclical pork price changes in which "high prices hurt people and low prices hurt farmer.

In layman's terms, it is "high meat prices - sow inventory increased - live pig supply increased - meat prices fell - a large number of sows eliminated - live pig supply decreased - meat prices increase.

The co-chief economist of CITIC Securities clearly believes that from the perspective of the duration of a typical "pig cycle", this round of "pig cycle" is coming to an e.

Looking further at leading indicators such as the year-on-year growth rate of fertile sows and live pigs, a new round of "pig cycle" is brewi.

"Combing the last two rounds of 'pig cycles', the inflection point of the year-on-year change in the number of reproductive sows is about 11 to 14 months ahead of the inflection point of pig pric.

February 2021 is the inflection point of this round of the year-on-year decline in the number of reproductive so.

From past historical experience, the end point of this round of 'pig cycle' and the next round of 'pig cycle' are likely to appear around mid-202" Mingming pointed o.

"A new round of pork price upward cycle will start in the third quart.

" Xie Yunliang, a macro analyst at Cinda Securities, predicts that from the perspective of production capacity, there will be an inflection point in the stock of Nengfan sows at the end of the second quarter of 2021; from the perspective of profitability, the pig breeding industry It has experienced two rounds of losses; from a policy perspective, the official news is that pig prices are risi.

On April 20, Yang Zhenhai, director of the Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Bureau of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, said at a press conference that our expert team predicted that with the continuous accumulation of various favorable factors such as the high number of newborn piglets and the high decline in feed costs, pig breeding in the third quarter will continue to accumula.

It is expected to turn losses into profits, but uncertainties still exi.

Have you bought pork recently? Have pork prices gone up?