Pig price rally slows down again The expectation of the peak season under the four rounds of storage is weakened

After experiencing another rise in September, the domestic pig price reached 24 yuan / kg, and also entered the secondary warning range
of excessive rise.
Although the fourth quarter with the cooling of the climate, the arrival of festivals, the pig market entered the traditional peak season, but in the context of continuous storage, the market bullish expectations gradually weakened
.
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Pig prices into the excessive rise of secondary early warning yxt feed industry information network - based on feed, service livestock

In the morning of September 29, the main pig contract 2301 in the domestic futures market fell slightly again, and as of the morning close, it was reported at 22275 yuan / ton
.
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In the spot market on the same day, the national pig price rose
.
Baichuan Yingfu data shows that the average price of live pigs on the 29th is 24.
24 yuan / kg, an increase of 0.
37%.

Near the end of the month, the scale of pig enterprises out of the pen is limited, the enthusiasm of farmers to go out of the pen is poor, the difficulty of slaughtering enterprises to collect pigs has increased, the market bullish sentiment has increased, and the price of pigs has risen to a certain extent
.
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In addition, according to the monitoring data of Sogou Pig Network, the average price of lean pigs in the country on September 28 was 24.
03 yuan / kg, up 12.
65 yuan / kg from 11.
38 yuan / kg in the same period last year, an increase of 111.
16%
year-on-year.
Recently, pig prices have maintained a high sideways consolidation trend, and the short-term continued upward resistance has increased significantly, mainly because as the holiday is approaching, the pre-holiday stocking of slaughtering enterprises has basically come to an end, and the secondary fattening phenomenon after the pig price continues to rise has gradually weakened and the continuous release of frozen pork in the central reserve, the market bullish sentiment has cooled down, and the pig market has been blocked from rising and once again showing a sideways shock situation
.
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In the third quarter of this year, the overall domestic pig and pork prices showed a shallow "V" trend of slight upward movement
.
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Zhuo Chuang data shows that as of September 24, the average price of live pigs out of the pen in the third quarter and the average price of pork market were 22.
54 yuan / kg and 28.
87 yuan / kg, respectively, up 46.
3% and 44.
8% respectively from the previous quarter, and up 57.
44% and 51.
48%
respectively year-on-year.
According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the average wholesale price of pork in the farmers' market in the third quarter was 31.
09 yuan / kg, up 26.
02% month-on-month and 24.
56%
year-on-year.
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Since the third quarter, pig farming has also entered the profit range
.
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According to the data of Sogou Pig Network, starting from June 2022, under the condition of self-breeding and self-raising, the breeding profit of each fat pig remains above 300 yuan / head, and the pig market has begun to turn losses into profits
.
As of September 27, 2022, the breeding profit of each fat pig under the condition of self-breeding and self-raising is basically 500-600 yuan / head
.
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After experiencing a phased rise since April this year, pig prices have come out of the previous trough and entered a relatively high level
.
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According to the monitoring of the National Development and Reform Commission, in the week of September 19-23, the weekly average retail price of lean meat in 36 large and medium-sized cities increased by 30% compared with the same period last year, entering the secondary warning range
of excessive rise determined by the "Improving the Government Pork Reserve Adjustment Mechanism to Do a Good Job Plan for Ensuring Supply and Stabilizing Prices in the Pork Market".
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For the reasons for the rise in pig prices in the third quarter, Zhuo Chuang analyst Li Xia believes that the secondary fattening of the pig market in the third quarter coexists
with the sale of the fence.
With the opening of the school and the Mid-Autumn Festival to boost the stockpiling, the increase in demand and the price resistance of the breeding end boosted the rebound of pig prices, farmers pressed the fence for sale, and the secondary fattening (weight is more than 100-120 kg) diverted part of the pig source that should be listed and slaughtered, resulting in a significant reduction in the actual supply of pigs, slaughtering enterprises at a low price is difficult to buy enough, the market presents a phased relationship between supply and demand, laying a solid market foundation
for the rise in pig prices.
At the same time, the average weight of pigs in the third quarter of this year remained relatively high in the year, with a quarterly average of 122.
32 kg, an increase of 1.
22%
over the second quarter.
Contrary
to the seasonal trend of the third quarter of 2017-2021, the average column out of the column is heavy compared with the second quarter.
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In September, the theoretical output of pigs fell by about 5% month-on-month, superimposed on the "interception" of secondary fattening and seasonal weight gain, and it is expected that the actual output of pigs in September will drop by about
10% month-on-month.
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Four rounds of storage or affect the peak season market yxt feed industry information network - based on feed, serving animal husbandry

For the sharp rise in pig market prices in recent months, since the third quarter, local governments at all levels have successively responded positively to the release of central reserve meat
.
The first three batches of storage have been released on September 8, 18 and 23, with the release volumes of 37,700 tons, 14,400 tons and 15,000 tons
respectively.
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According to the news previously released by the National Development and Reform Commission, according to the provisions of the plan, the fourth batch of central pork reserves this year will be released this week, and local governments will be guided to jointly release local government pork reserves
.
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In this regard, Li Xia believes that the state and local governments will put a total of 200,000 tons of pork in September, and this amount may reach the highest level
in the history of a single month.
The main role of this release is manifested in two aspects, one is to directly increase the supply of pork, and the other is to urge the industry to maintain a normal pig out of the barn
.
Judging by the law, the impact of this release on the market will be reflected in the fourth quarter
.
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Affected by the cyclical and seasonal supply reduction of the pig industry itself, the price of live pigs and pork in the third quarter showed a high and slight upward trend
.
Under the premise of not considering the unexpected factors such as conventional epidemics, with the loosening of pig supply, the increase in breeding cost risks, the increase in pork multi-channel supply, and the slow follow-up of terminal demand, it is expected that the focus of domestic pig and pork prices in the fourth quarter will move
down from the third quarter.
Although the winter solstice is the peak of demand for traditional cured wax, large-scale enterprises or at the end of the year concentrate on sprinting annual plans, pig prices or weak ends
.
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According to the latest data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the national breeding sow inventory was 43.
24 million at the end of August, an increase of 0.
6% over July, and 5.
5%
higher than the normal ownership.
Although the recent rapid rise in pork prices, but the pig production capacity is currently at a reasonable level, coupled with the strengthening of market regulation and guidance, is conducive to stabilizing supply and demand, pork prices are unlikely
to rise sharply.
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The relevant person in charge of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has also recently publicly stated that according to the law of pig growth, the general pig breeding is listed
for 6 months.
According to monitoring, in August, the number of medium and large pigs in the national scale pig farm increased by 6.
2% year-on-year, and the recent secondary fattening of large fat pigs entered the market, and the live weight of the pen was also increasing, coupled with the successive release of reserve meat in various places, the supply of pork during the National Day will continue to increase
.
In the later period, pork prices do not have the conditions for
a sharp increase.
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