Pig giants are expanding in circles, and pig futures are difficult to iron out the pig cycle

Trillion-scale pig market, finally ushered in pig futures listed.
All pig giants have been testing water, but the pig futures have high hopes can really iron the pig cycle? 1 pig futures are high hopes of the domestic retail-based pig breeding structure, so that the pig cycle is very obvious.
't be able to accurately estimate capacity and prices, leaving industry-wide profits hovering between skyrockets and plunges.
futures have high hopes from the CSRC, which believes that it has a positive effect on improving the formation of pig price mechanism and the development of pig industry.
, "China Business Daily" reporter in the interview learned that most people still believe that the pig cycle will remain long-term, pig futures can not fundamentally solve the problem of industrial supply and demand contradictions.
only from the present point of view, pig futures after the listing has suffered a series of sharp falls, pork prices will continue to fall in 2021.
But leading companies are still expanding, with New Hope's newly disclosed equity incentive plan showing that the company plans to secure 25 million head by 2021, challenging its 30m head-to-head target and 40m by 2022, on the premise that it will achieve an unchanged 8m head by 2020.
" China's pig breeding industry is still in the circle stage.
, especially the big leading companies, is now the stage of grabbing market share, (expansion or not) has nothing to do with pig prices and profits, but also with strategy.
the role of ironing the pig cycle, it will take a few years.
, the chief advisory officer of China-Canada Investment Co., Ltd., told reporters.
2 industry leading test pig futures since January 8 listed, has been a number of consecutive trading days of sharp dive.
on January 8th, all three contracts listed fell; On January 11th, pig futures fell again; On January 12th, the main contract for pig futures fell after the opening of trading.
" company has set up a dedicated team, the future will be through pig futures hedging.
" January 12, 2021, Wen's shares related to the person in charge told reporters.
in the transaction rules announced on the evening of January 5, including Wen's shares, Makhara shares, Zhengbang Science and Technology, New Hope, Cofco meat, Ao Nong Bio and many other pig breeding listed companies delivery warehouses and sub-banks to become designated delivery depots.
Lichun, founding partner and chief economist of Yantai Capital, told reporters that pig futures have the function of market price discovery and hedging, which is of great significance to the pig breeding industry.
to pig futures LH2109 main contract as an example, the January 12 closing contract price is 25830 yuan / ton, folding into kg price, in September 2021 pig price at 25.83 yuan / kg.
2020, the sale price of commercial pigs is about 30 yuan / kg.
The above price and the industry estimate of September 2021 pig prices in 25 yuan / kg basically similar, Everbright Futures pig researcher Kong Hailan told the media, pig futures 2109 main contract on the first day of listing a sharp decline, more in line with the actual situation of fundamentals.
, Guoxin Securities mentioned in the research report, on the one hand, pig futures prices to a certain extent reflect the future trend of spot prices, pig industry chain enterprises can understand the demand at both ends of supply and demand, reasonable planning capacity.
other hand, after the enterprise buys the right price of pig futures for hedging, the risk at the price end is effectively controlled, and the production capacity can be promoted with peace of mind to avoid the interference of market sentiment.
at present, large leading enterprises have begun to act.
, assistant to the president of the Makhara Group, told reporters that the pig group delivery warehouse and sub-bank of the Makhara shares became the designated delivery warehouse.
he mentioned that Makhara had planned to set up his own futures trading team, under the management of the securities department.
2020, Makhara shares have begun hiring futures analysts, delivery managers and futures trading positions, according to the company.
, we haven't done any specific business yet.
," Yuan said.
January 19, the leading pig breeding enterprise Makhara shares announced that, in view of the pig futures have been listed, the company held the third session of the Board of Directors on January 18, 2021, the 35th meeting, considered and adopted the "On the adjustment of commodity futures hedging business plan" to add pigs to the original hedging varieties, in the delivery process will be based on pig futures delivery mode of trading, collection.
also reacted to the shares of Huadum, a large slaughtering company in Zhejiang province.
the company's securities onion Yonghua told reporters that the company has also formed a related team, but has not yet begun to practice, it is not clear how pig futures listed on the industrial chain upstream and downstream impact.
other Wen's shares, New Hope, Zhengbang Technology, Zhengda will enter the market to participate in pig futures delivery business.
3 ironing pig cycle a number of futures agency analysts believe that pig futures will effectively iron the pig cycle.
industry analysts told reporters that pig futures basically will not affect the pace of expansion of leading enterprises.
Lili Zhang, an analyst at The Times, believes that comparing pig cycles to capacity cycles and acknowledging their objectivity is a prerequisite for understanding the industry.
production capacity fluctuations produced by the growth and breeding characteristics of pigs themselves are the most important factors affecting pig prices.
it's not just a price cycle, it's a profit cycle, it's also a value cycle.
" regardless of the existence of pig futures, pig cycle can not be ironed out, but under the influence of futures trading can be reduced market price volatility, and reduce the resulting risk of price fluctuations.
, " Zhang Lili provided to reporters in the Zhuo Tsing Information Research Report said so.
according to specifications, pig futures trading units are 16 tons / hand, about 133 finished pigs.
this figure is basically the current pig transport vehicle carrying capacity.
, pig futures implement a trading limit system, non-futures company members or customers in pig futures on all contracts on a single day to open positions not more than 500.
" only a car, a car is about 133 head, and also limited positions.
and china's annual pig out of the column of 5.6 billion head, the volume of this transaction is too limited.
," Zhang Lili told reporters.
for small and medium-sized farmers and retail investors, Wang said, they have little futures knowledge and awareness, and pig futures entry threshold is high, they are difficult to participate.
random interviews with a number of small-scale aquaculture enterprises located in Henan Province, the other side mostly said that they do not understand the relevant rules, no willingness to participate.
according to Guoxin Securities Research Report, the emergence of pig futures, can reduce the risk of breeding, good scale breeding, avoid pig price risk, reasonable planning capacity.
but several industry analysts told reporters that pig futures will not affect the pace of expansion of leading enterprises.
according to the newly disclosed equity incentive plan of New Hope, based on the actual operating results in 2020, the growth rate of the number of pigs released from 2021 to 2023 needs to be no less than 100%, 300% and 700%.
new hope previously released the December pig sales briefing shows that the company in 2020 cumulative sales of 8.2925 million pigs, revenue of 25.008 billion yuan.
based on this data, new hope pigs will need to be exported by 66.34 million by 2023.
annual report of the New Year, the number of pigs released in 2016-2020 was 1.1669 million, 2.3996 million, 2.5537 million, 3.5499 million and 8.2925 million, respectively.
, Makhara shares, Xin Wufeng, Dabei Nong, etc. have expansion plans.
wang believes that the industry's leading enterprises will not adjust the pace of expansion according to the price of pigs in the future.
is now when the industry grabs market share, expansion or not, has nothing to do with profit, it has to do with strategy.
said the company has begun to control the upstream layout, but is currently only out of strategic layout, in some places to expand. according to
data, the company announced on December 29, 2020 that the company and the People's Government of The County of Tsingxi signed a framework agreement for cooperation, to invest about 1 billion yuan to build an annual storage column fattening pigs 125,000 head, annual storage column sow 10,000 head of high-quality pig breeding base and other projects.
ZhuoTron Information Research Report mentioned that China's pig farming is more scattered, 2016-2019, the top 3 industry business size market share increased from 3.21% to 6.35%, the business size of the top 10 market share increased from 4.35% to 8.24%, the concentration is very low, there is still a lot of room for improvement in the future.
for the pig farming industry, the core of the pig cycle lies in the contradiction between supply and demand in the industry.
if leading enterprises in order to seize the land and ignore the profit choice of continuous plus-size layout, the future industry volatility will continue.
" study of pig futures should be from the present, not the future.
of pig futures is bound to be huge and far-reaching, but it is not a one-off, it will go through a period of time.
, " wang said.