Partial improvement of market liquidity when the lending rate falls below 4%

In July, liquidity in the financial market began to show signs of easing, and overnight Shanghai interbank offered rate (Shibor) has fallen to close to the level before the "money shortage" Today (July 2), overnight Shibor continued to fall 67 basis points to 3.786% At the end of May before the "money shortage" storm, overnight Shibor was also around 3.5% - 3.8%, but the current interest rate is still higher than the level of the previous five months; at the same time, other varieties within one year also fell to different degrees, only overnight pledge style repo rate slightly increased 30 basis points to 3.80% Ping An Securities estimates that the weighted average overnight lending rate from January to May is 2.44% The open market of the people's Bank of China continues to suspend operations today, and the central bank bills due today and the repurchase will automatically inject 36 billion yuan As a result, interest rates in the money market continued to improve, with the 7-day repo rate among banks dropping 70 basis points to 4.75% in the morning At the end of last month, the central bank provided liquidity support to some financial institutions that met the requirements of macro Prudential In the future, according to the actual situation of market liquidity, we will actively use the combination of open market operation, refinancing, rediscount and short-term liquidity adjustment tools (SLO), standing loan facility (SLF) and other innovative tools to timely adjust the liquidity of the banking system ICBC and others also said they are willing to play a stabilizing role and provide funds to the market In the short term, the market remains cautious about the deposit of reserves on 5th of this month In view of the changes in the macro environment at home and abroad, many market participants expect that it will be difficult to repeat the liquidity easing in the second half of the year Huang Hainan, an analyst at Ping An Securities, expects interbank lending rates to return to near benchmark rates in the second half of the year However, in view of the significant slowdown of foreign exchange in the second half of the year compared with the first half, the liquidity is certainly not as loose as that in the first half of the year Therefore, the overnight interest rate in the second half of the year may be higher than that in the first half of the year, but it should be lower than or near the benchmark interest rate for most of the time In the second half of the year, the central interest rate is expected to be 2.7% - 3% Compared with the first half of the year, the macro background of the second half of the year has changed a lot, he said Under the background of low inflation pressure and weak economic growth in the second half of the year, the probability of the central bank's interest rate increase in the second half of the year is zero; the investment demand has also changed greatly At present, the investment in fixed assets has dropped to nearly 20%, and there is a risk of further decline in the second half of the year From the proportion of public medium and long-term loans to credit, it can be seen that the current investment demand is not strong As for the debt default that overseas funds are worried about, he said that there is uncertainty in the second half of the year, and the possibility of large-scale debt default is unlikely The debt risk of real estate and local investment and financing platforms will not be exposed in the second half of the year, and manufacturing trust may have partial debt default risk Pan Xiangdong, chief economist of galaxy securities, also predicted that after the end of the quarter, the bank's fund tension will improve However, due to the short-term inter-bank lending fund in short supply, the market liquidity will remain tight He believes that in order to avoid the stall of the real economy in the process of eliminating risks, it is expected that the decision-makers will constrain the balance sheet of local governments and financing platforms in the future, realize the gradual clearing of financing platforms, realize the gradual clearing of the banking system through regulating the development of shadow banks, and at the same time, may quickly start the reform of interest rate marketization.