Palm oil price is expected to rise in the future

Introduction: since January, due to the decrease of palm oil production in the main palm oil producing countries in Southeast Asia, the international price of palm oil has gradually increased, and the domestic price of palm oil has also increased In terms of the import price of palm oil in domestic ports, the prices of the ports in recent period are respectively: 4050 yuan / ton (December 20, 2001), 4100-4150 yuan / ton (December 27, 2001), 4150-4200 yuan / ton (January 10, 2002), 4600-4700 yuan / ton (January 17, 2002); 3900 yuan / ton (December 20, 2001), 4050 yuan / ton (December 27, 2001) along the coast of East China , 4100 yuan / ton (January 10, 2002), 4600-4700 yuan / ton (January 17, 2002) The above prices basically reflect the general situation of domestic palm oil market in the near future This paper analyzes the reasons for the price rise of palm oil market in China: first, domestic demand influences the arrival of the traditional Chinese New Year holiday During this period, it is expected that the demand for palm oil in the domestic market will increase significantly However, from the perspective of the future market, the import volume of palm oil will decrease during the Spring Festival, because China has bought a large amount of palm oil in December last year In January this year, as the quota in the hands of importers is not much left, the new quota is expected to be used in early February In addition, the port palm oil trade will be stagnant to some extent during the festival, so it is expected that during this period, the import volume of palm oil will be reduced Imports will be reduced, which will drive up the price of palm oil market in China 2 China is the second largest palm oil importer in the world In recent years, China's palm oil import has been on the rise According to the latest data released by China's customs, China imported 16544900 tons of palm oil in December 2001, and 1520000 tons of palm oil in January December 2001, an increase of 9.1% over the previous year China's import volume of palm oil is a major factor affecting the international price of palm oil With China's accession to the WTO, China's import quota of palm oil increased to 2.4 million tons in 2002, which will have a positive impact on the international palm oil market Stimulated by this factor, the domestic price of palm oil is also promising 3 From November 2001 to February 2002, the main palm oil producing countries, Malaysia and Indonesia, entered the seasonal low production period of palm oil At that time, their production, inventory and export volume will decrease compared with the previous period, which will affect the export price of palm oil and promote the international palm oil price According to the Malaysian palm oil association, Malaysia's palm oil output in December 2001 was 94870 tons, 11% lower than that of last month, and its inventory was 1.21 million tons at the end of December 2001, 6.3% lower than that of last month The palm oil export in December 2001 was 949630 tons, 4% lower than that of last month In addition, Indonesia's total crude palm oil export in December 2001 was 191475 tons, lower than that of November 20.1% As a result, in December 2001, the local average price of crude palm oil in Malaysia increased from 277 US dollars / ton in November to 291 US dollars / ton, and the average FOB price of refined palm oil in December increased from 290 US dollars / ton in November to 304 US dollars / ton 4 International palm oil imports: due to the strong demand of India and Pakistan for palm oil, China's imports have increased In addition, the EU's procurement momentum is good In addition, the ASEAN Free Trade Area has cancelled the import quota since January 1 this year, which is bound to expand the domestic demand for palm oil and promote its price rise In addition, the global edible oil supply market is expected to be tight in 2002, because the production of sunflower seeds in Argentina, Russia and Ukraine, the main sunflower seed producing countries, has declined, and the production of rapeseed in Canada and Europe has also declined Therefore, in addition to the good weather conditions in the United States and the good harvest of soybean, the world's sunflower oil and rapeseed oil will be in short supply due to bad weather, These will strongly support the rising price of palm oil in the world In short, it is expected that the domestic palm oil price will keep rising in the future (author:) share to feed Weibo share to: