Outlook for soybeans in 2001: strong demand indicates an increase

OA show ('918 '); the soybean market is a little uneasy to welcome the new year, because traders are worried about the impact of record soybean production in South America on the market However, according to several analysts, the world's demand for animal feed protein is still rising sharply, which paves the way for a possible rebound in soybeans in early 2001 Futures markets often say that futures prices will fall in the most uncertain direction As most soybean growing areas in South America continue to be in good weather, the market believes that the soybean production in South America may be a record According to the previous statement, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange soybean futures price has fallen for more than a week Even so, analysts still believe that demand factors will make the bottom of the soybean market solid, and that any problems in soybean production in South America this winter or in the United States next summer may cause the soybean rally to thin out Dan Buss, an analyst at agri resources, said, "we are surprised that the world's demand for soybeans is not lagging behind, sometimes exceeding the increase in supply, even with the world's soybean production continuing to rise." Buss predicted that "if there is a problem in soybean supply, then the soybean market will be hot" He predicted that the recent contract price of soybean futures might rise to $6 per bushel sometime in the next few months On Wednesday, CBOT's March soybeans closed at $5.08 * 3 / 4 "The market's perception of soybean demand is likely to help soybean prices rebound in the first third of the next year," said Anna Frick, an oil crop analyst at bacon securities in New York The strong world demand will limit the downward space of soybean, and the world meat consumption will continue to grow In addition, the soybean price is at a historical low, so the market demand for soybean crushing and soybean used as animal feed will increase Brian Anderson of Anderson commodities, a consulting firm based in shawnemish, Kansas, said, "world soybean consumption will once again be a record." The ratio of global soybean ending inventory and inventory to consumption is lower than the same period last year, and also lower than the three-year average The low price of soybean in recent years has caused the expansion of global soybean consumption Global demand for soybeans is now growing faster than production " Frederick expects that "because the supply side is easier to grasp than the demand side, and the demand side factor is currently favorable, the market tends to pay more attention to the influence of the supply side, and then consider the demand side factor As a result, we expect the supply side view that South American soybeans will flood the world export market to weaken soybean prices before the market recognizes that record soybean demand will lead to stronger soybean prices " Record soybean production in South America continues to put pressure on the market How much the world's increasing demand for soybeans will benefit the U The U.S Department of Agriculture said Brazil's soybean production will reach 34.5 million tons, while Argentina's soybean production will reach 23.5 million tons, both of which will set a record Other forecasts are even higher, with safras e Mercado, a Brazilian Agricultural consultancy, estimating that Brazil's soybean production will reach 35.3 million tons "It's too early to predict soybean production in South America," buss said Some people predict a high yield, but whether it will become a reality in the end remains to be discussed " The size of soybean production in South America will have a significant impact on U.S soybean exports in 2001 / 02 (September to August of the next year), because the soybean harvest in South America means that the existence of South American soybean pool will be larger next autumn However, in the short term, the impact of South American soybean harvest on its marketing ability is very limited, and the ability to harvest soybean and ship cloud is more important "China and the EU have a huge and growing demand for soybeans, which will increase the volatility of soybean products in the first quarter of 2001," Anderson said US soybean sales are expected to decline in the next market year due to higher soybean production in South America and reduced demand in China " It is expected that the soybean planting area in the United States will increase, but the increase of corn price may change the former In the past few weeks, the market agreed that the soybean planting area in the United States will increase substantially in 2001, the soybean planting area in the United States in 2000 will be 74.5 million hectares, and the corn planting in the United States will decrease The main argument for this view is that the agricultural loan subsidy rate for soybeans is more attractive, and that the impact of soaring fertilizer prices on corn is greater than on soybeans However, other factors may limit these trends, especially when corn prices continue to rise "The market has tried to re grow corn," buss said He noted that Tuesday's November soybean contract was below 2.1 against December corn Buss added, "I haven't seen this happen for a long time Although the subsidy rate of soybean loan is better for soybean planting than that of corn loan, the more appropriate price ratio is the ratio between the futures price or loan rate of soybean in November, whichever is higher, and the corn futures price in December, because the price of corn futures in December is much higher than the loan subsidy rate If measured by whether soybean planting will increase or decrease, the key price ratio of soybean to corn is close to 2.20:1 "But the difference in input costs could lead to a reduction in that ratio," she said Over the past few years, farmers have been switching from corn to soybeans The farmers' rotation system will limit the extent of this trend " Poor yields in the past few years could lead farmers to stop growing soybeans It has been six long years since American soybean set a record per unit yield in 1994 "Whether it's due to hydatid disease, aphid disease or Roundup Ready genetically modified soybeans, many of the farmers we've been exposed to are disappointed with the soybean yield in recent years While soybean yield tends to decrease, corn yield continues to increase " After the initial planting intention report was released on March 30, some farmers will be planting corn in the late season "If the planting intention announced in March is quite different from the market expectation, it may lead to another change in the planting area, and the market will respond to the above signals," said Dale Gustafson, an analyst with Salomon Smith Barney The vast majority of the analysts surveyed do not have an unreserved view, but they believe that most of the negative factors of soybeans have been reflected in the price, so there may be unexpected positive factors in both supply and demand in 2001 EPF (author:)