Outlook of egg industry in the first half of 2002

Introduction: 1 Feed price in the first half of 2002: it is likely to remain stable and slightly decline, with little possibility of rising The reasons are as follows: there is a trend of price reduction in southern provinces, they are not eager to buy and look forward to import; the second autumn grain is about to go on the market, and they are waiting for the price to fall Third, the situation of animal husbandry has not improved, which leads to the decrease of corn demand and the unlikely increase of corn price Of course, stable corn prices are good for the laying industry We need to be vigilant and pay attention to the production adjustment in the first half of the year It is predicted that corn prices in the South will probably fall again, so it should be prepared for importing corn The price of foreign grain market has changed a lot In the same market, the price difference can be 10-20% in a month Enterprises need to monitor the price trend of the international market dynamically and purchase cautiously 2 Protein feed price in the first half of 2000: the rising area of soybean meal price is mainly in the southwest inland area Soybean meal will continue to be regulated by the international market, and the price will remain stable and will not rise From the perspective of laying industry, the resource situation is optimistic Of course, we should pay attention to the trend of the international market and study the impact on the laying industry It is predicted that there will be little change in the first half of the year 5GN 3 In the first half of 2002, the price of eggs continued to be low: it was basically in the trough If the price of corn no longer did not rise, it is possible for laying hens to maintain a low profit Forecast the price from the profit situation: at present, no matter in the countryside or in the enterprises, they are in the state of loss, and there is no enthusiasm to stimulate the production of laying hens, but the price and profit trend in 2002 may rise later It is predicted that the price of eggs may be between 5.16 yuan / kg and 5.49 yuan / kg in the near future Each province needs to analyze its own situation, control its stock and prevent overproduction 5GN 4 Pay attention to the price of eggs and chicks for the breeder Enterprises: now the egg enterprises are in the next profit period, which need 22 weeks to lay eggs From now on, egg sales and hatching should be in the peak season with the highest price We predict that the profit may turn into profit in the later half of 2002, but when will it change? Which province will change when? It also needs to be analyzed in combination with its own situation 5GN 5 The middle price of fresh eggs in the province will be differentiated: Xinjiang, Guangdong, Fujian, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Shaanxi In the past year, the low price area is decreasing, and it is expected that some provinces and regions will enter the high price area in the later half of 2002 Some prices may not be very high, but may exceed the break even point It is worth noting that the low price provinces are the major production provinces of our country, and are the commodity areas for export In addition, it is good for commodity circulation, but extremely bad for local layer production These provinces and regions should pay attention to developing market, adjusting structure, improving technology and reducing stock as appropriate 5GN 6 In the first half of 2002, the profitability of eggs was still very low We hope that there will be some changes in the later period: at present, there are 21 provinces in the loss of laying hens, accounting for 70% of the whole country, which is really shocking The situation is expected to remain serious in the first half of 2002 If the volatility period is 32 to 34 months, theoretically there will be a loss of 4 to 6 months in the future It is predicted that it is possible to turn into profit in the later stage Therefore, producers should pay close attention to the analysis of the situation, especially in combination with the characteristics of the province, when reducing the stock and eliminating laying hens We need to keep vigilance, deal with the market fluctuations in a planned way, and adjust the number of our own stocks in time to obtain stable profits 5GN 7 In the first half of 2002, the profit location of eggs was still dominated by low interest: now some provinces and regions are in low interest, with an average price ratio of 4.313 These provinces are hard to make money anyway In particular, Shandong, Henan and Anhui in Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong, Guangxi and Huanghuaihai have kept low profits for a year and a half, so it is difficult to get out of the dilemma In the first half of 2002, according to the law of fluctuation, there is hope to change, especially some will be divided out Enterprises need to pay attention to the possible turnaround in the late first half of the year and arrange their own production layout Guizhou, Yunnan, Chongqing, Sichuan and other southwest provinces may enter the high profit area 5GN 8 Although the production of laying hens originated from the city, the signs of urban production shrinkage will be further intensified: therefore, the city should pay attention to the high-speed structure and transfer industry, pay attention to the "sunset" industrial transfer and the adjustment of property right structure Some urban production has changed its type and developed its own advantages The general production has been transferred to low-cost rural areas, while the operation and trade of laying hens include marketing, product processing, breeding of chickens, import and export management and other high-tech parts It still has the advantages of capital, technology, market, organization and so on Foreign enterprises have been able to stand firm in China's market for many years, but they can't replace them now, let alone domestic enterprises 5GN (author:) to feed Weibo to: