Outlook of corn market in 2002

Introduction: in the first half of 2001, there was an upward trend: at the beginning of the year, corn prices rose step by step Although there was a callback during the period, the time of each callback was relatively short, the range of decline was limited, and the overall trend was upward In the first half of the year, the price of corn in the production area was close to 1150 yuan / ton, and the price in the sales area also increased from 1200 yuan / ton to 1350 yuan / ton The reasons for the price rise in the first half of the year are as follows: first, the national macro-economic situation has improved and the corn consumption has turned prosperous; second, the macro-control effect has appeared, which has led to the overall recovery of grain prices; third, the corn output in the first half of the year is insufficient and there is a gap in supply; fourth, the strong corn export in the first half of the year has been maintained, which has led to the price rise In the second half of 2001, the price of corn declined: from July, the price of corn rose slowly, and the market price gradually declined By December, the lowest delivery price of corn plate in Jilin production area had dropped to 900 yuan / ton, and the sales areas in Guangdong and Fujian had also dropped to about 1100 yuan / ton The reasons for the price drop in the second half of the year are as follows: first, since July, the situation of corn production has become more and more clear, and the pressure on the market brought by the change of production expectation has increased; second, the pace of corn export has slowed down in the second half of the year, which has weakened the pulling effect on the price; third, the state has launched the policy of directional auction of aged grain to feed, alcohol and other corn processing enterprises in the second half of the year, which has a great impact on the market Fourth, affected by seasonal factors, a large number of new grains are listed, and corn prices fall naturally; fifth, people's psychological factors have changed after China's accession to the WTO, and people are not very optimistic about the prospect of domestic corn market WCC 2002 corn market outlook: WCC 1 Corn production: in terms of output alone, domestic corn production has maintained a low level for two consecutive years, but in 2001, compared with the previous year, it is a trend of increasing production According to the statistics of the Ministry of agriculture, in 2001, China's corn output reached the level of 115 million tons, an increase of 9 million tons compared with 106 million tons in the previous year, with a considerable increase The supply of corn is better than that of the previous year, which has a great pressure on the price rise It's too early to predict the corn production in 2002, but from the current corn market price, the continuous depressed corn price may affect the corn planting area this year, and then affect the corn production this year WCC 2 Corn consumption: at present, China's corn consumption mainly includes feed consumption, industrial consumption and ration consumption According to relevant data, the total domestic corn consumption in 2002 was about 120 million tons Among them, feed consumption accounts for nearly 70% of the total corn consumption, about 93 million tons; industrial consumption growth is relatively fast, and it is estimated that the corn used for processing and transformation will be about 13 million tons in 2002; the consumption of rations will be basically stable, about 16 million tons per year In recent years, with the slowing down of the growth rate of livestock products, the growth of corn as feed demand has also declined, especially after China's accession to the WTO this year, the domestic animal husbandry will be impacted, so the growth of feed consumption will not be very large WCC 3 After China's entry into WTO, the trade pattern of corn export decreasing and import increasing will be formed According to China's WTO commitments, this year's corn import tariff quota is 5.85 million tons, of which 68% are state-owned enterprises and 32% are private enterprises If there is profit to be made, the 1.87 million tons of import quota in the hands of the private enterprises will become the actual import volume, and the state-owned enterprises lucky grain and COFCO may also import part of corn under the appropriate conditions According to the information provided by the American feed grain Association, at present, China has purchased 885000 tons of American corn, and it is estimated that the annual import volume will exceed 3 million tons Under the impact of imported corn, the contradiction between domestic corn supply and demand will be more prominent, and the pressure of corn price rise will appear again From the perspective of export situation, it is more difficult to export corn after China's accession to the WTO, and the export volume of corn will shrink significantly It is estimated that the export volume of corn in 2002 will be less than 2 million tons WCC 4 At present, the FOB price of corn in the U.S Gulf of Mexico in January 2002 is 95 US dollars / ton The international market price has been depressed for a long time, but this year, the international market price is likely to pick up On the one hand, after China's accession to the WTO, the position of corn export power may be shaken In the corn export trade, the United States has reduced a strong competitor, the world corn supply will rely more on the United States, and the monopoly position of American corn export will be strengthened, which will lead to corn price The grid is rising On the other hand, the increase of China's imported corn will also play a role in raising the price of corn in the international market Based on a comprehensive analysis of the above factors, we can draw the following conclusions for the situation of the domestic corn market in 2002: 1 The weak market pattern of the domestic corn market has been set in 2002, and even if the price rebounds, it is impossible to have a big rise in the market; 2 After eight or nine months of decline, there is little room for the domestic corn price to fall; 3 As China has successfully joined the WTO, With the integration of the world economy, the domestic market and the international market price will echo each other, the linkage effect will be further enhanced, the stability of the market price will be greatly improved, the fluctuation range of corn price will be narrowed, and the fluctuation range of the whole year is expected to be between 10% and 20% WcC