Oseltamivir won the bid for the seventh batch of centralized procurement at 0.99 yuan per pill, and the "one product is the only one" is under pressure!

Not long ago, the seventh batch of national harvests officially ended, and HEC Pharmaceutical won the bid for oseltamivir capsules at a price of 99 yuan per capsu.

With the release of the results of the constituencies for centralized procurement, the supply provinces of HEC are determined to be Shandong Province, Hubei Province, Guangdong Province, and Chongqing City; according to the price, its future centralized procurement market share will be about 05 million yuan (excluding the provinces that are ready for suppl.

What does 05 million yuan mean?

Compared with the revenue of 811 million yuan in 2021, the share of oseltamivir collected by HEC Pharmaceuticals this time is less than a fraction of the revenue in this worst year, not to mention the highlight moment of 66 billion yuan in 201

In this centralized procurement, the winning bid price of HEC Pharmaceuticals on oseltamivir capsules is more than 92% lower than the highest effective declared pri.

It's not unreasonable for investors to "vote with their fe.

In the previous rounds of centralized procurement, the experience of Xinlitai's "Taijia" clopidogrel once also caused this "one-brand monopoly" enterprise to fall into the quagmire of short-term performance, and it was also an extremely real and reference samp.

Industry analysts pointed out that pharmaceutical companies focus on resources to build core large varieties, and there is no problem with “one product is the only on.

Sunshine Pharmaceutical may be under pressure in the short term

Can "Kewei" exchange price for quantity?

In this centralized procurement, one of the important reasons for the decision to cut the price of oseltamivir by HEC is "cost controllabl.

At present, in the domestic market, only HEC has the API approval for oseltamivir, and has the largest production line of oseltamivir phosphate API in China, which ensures that it can be produced at a lower co.

However, the problem that cannot be ignored is that the impact of the new crown epidemic on corporate performance is not sma.

Nowadays, with the normalized prevention and control of the epidemic, the popularization of protective measures, the decline of population mobility, and the momentum of influenza outbreaks are not as good as in the past, the market demand and sales of oseltamivir are naturally not optimist.

Secondly, the increasingly severe market competition also puts pressure on HEC Pharmaceutica.

Sunshine Pharmaceutical's oseltamivir synthesis patent will expire in 2024, and the particle type patent will only last until 202 In addition, the dry suspension dosage form, which is considered to be more suitable for children, has also been approved for marketi.

Market participants pointed out that the market of "Kewei" of HEC Pharmaceuticals is under attack, and more and more generic drug manufacturers and new products are entering the market, which will further divide the market share of dominant companies and further reduce the "Kewei" in the regional mark.

In addition, new anti-influenza drugs are also emergi.

Roche's innovative flu drug Sufuda (mabaloxavir) was approved for marketing in April last year and was subsequently included in medical insurance payments; Zhongsheng Ruichuang ZSP1273 tablets and granules under development, Zhenbaodao Pharmaceutical/Guangzhou Hengnuokang Pharmaceutical HNC042 for injection, Qingfeng Pharmaceutical/Ginkgo GP681, Taijing Pharmaceutical's endonuclease inhibitor TG-1000, Zhengxiang Pharmaceutical's new anti-influenza drug ZX-7101A, Antikang Bio's ADC189 and China Pharmaceutical University Anti-Influenza Products such as baicalein, a new class of virus drug, have also attracted market attenti.

It is not difficult to see that on the track of flu drugs, HEC is gradually losing the advantage of the first-mover barrier of large varieti.

In fact, there is a risk of a single variety in the revenue structure of the "Yipin Dominant" pharmaceutical compa.

Whether it is the impact of force majeure external policies or the covetousness of competitors, any disturbance may cause market shocks, especially in the face of medical insurance payment "vacation cages" The top-level institutional reform of "Swapping Birds" has further increased the price pressure on the payment si.

Correspondingly, the share price of HEC has been fluctuati.

From the halving of the stock price caused by the adjustment of the company's management structure, to the sharp drop in the sales of "Kewei" under the influence of the epidemic, the stock price fell again, and the blackstone convertible bond default crisis, which was kicked out of the Hong Kong Stock Connect, and was stripped and reorganized by HEC until this time 99 Yuan's centralized procurement quotation made the stock price drop from HK$7 to HK$
There are various signs that investors are beginning to lose patience with H.

Obviously, the era of relying only on generic drugs to carry huge profits from market sales will be gone forev.

Under the guidance of centralized procurement focusing on large varieties of "large clinical dosage and high usage amount", a company can make money only by relying on a single produ.

If you get a lot of money, you will definitely encounter a serious setback in centralized procureme.

How to change the current situation will be the focus of investors' attention ne.

The industry generally believes that the centralized procurement of drugs with a large amount has brought about a fundamental change in the pharmaceutical indust.

Expired drugs and generic drugs have officially entered the era of meager profi.

Both multinational and local companies must face the premium criteria for innovative products in the medical insurance payment mark.

"One product dominance" encounters the era of meager profits

Innovation, transformation and upgrading are imminent

It is not without precedent that the "Yipin Dominance" has been caught in the quagmire of performance, and the most typical one is Xinlit.

Xinlitai once controlled the dominance of the domestic market of clopidogrel by virtue of "Taiji.

In September 2000, clopidogrel hydrogen sulfate tablets (Taijia) was approved as a national second-class new dr.

Advantages, Taijia once let Xinlitai establish the leading position of domestic cardiovascular and cerebrovascular dru.

In 2013, the annual sales of "Taijia" exceeded 5 billion yuan, accounting for 646% of the company's total revenue that ye.

Data shows that in 2018, the sales of clopidogrel hydrogen sulfate tablets in domestic public hospitals was 1239 billion yu.

Among them, Sanofi accounted for 547% of the market share, Xinlitai was the second largest manufacturer, accounting for 225%, and Lepu Medical accounted for 12

Xinlitai's performance has gone downhill, which is not unrelated to the market slump brought about by centralized procurement price competiti.

Since 2018, the country has continued to deepen the implementation of the policy of centralized drug procurement with volu.

Xinli Taichong, which has won dividends in the era of generic drugs, has been on the front line of centralized drug procurement, but it has also brought the good days of the era of generic drug profits to an e.

In December 2018, the national "4+7" drug centralized procurement with volume kicked o.

For the first time, "Taijia" was selected at an ultra-low price of 18 yuan per piece, a drop of nearly 7
Although this move stabilized the original market, it also shocked the industry inside and outside the indust.

The aftermath of the stock price plummeting nearly 20% for 3 consecutive da.

Followed by the national centralized procurement, facing the price competition of 44 yuan/piece, 55 yuan/piece, and 98 yuan/piece from CSPC, Sanofi, and Lepu Medical, Xinlitai took the highest price in the audien.

13 yuan" o.

On the day of the announcement of the results, the share price of Xinlitai plummeted again, with a cumulative decline of more than 25% for 5 consecutive trading da.

Losing bids in centralized procurement has become a watershed in Xinlitai's performan.

In 2019, the revenue of clopidogrel hydrogen sulfate tablets was nearly 3 billion yuan, while the total operating income of Xinlitai in 2019 was about 47 billion yuan, and the net profit fell by 595%; by 2020, Xinlitai has handed over the worst in histo.

In the answer sheet, the annual revenue decreased by 374% year-on-year; the net profit was about 61 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 949%; the deducted non-net profit was about 40 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 94

After losing the centralized procurement market, and again affected by the epidemic, Xinlitai's revenue and profits have been declining all the w.

After being hit hard by centralized procurement, Xinlitai began to increase investment in the research and development of innovative drugs and high-tech generic drugs, and embarked on the road of transformation from a generic drug company to an innovative drug compa.

In recent years, Xinlitai has successively terminated some anti-tumor biosimilars, antibiotics and other research and development projects that have entered the clinical stage, and began to actively "sell" and "buy", and the variety structure adjustment has been accelerated:

In 2020, Xinlitai will transfer the rights and interests of its generic drugs erlotinib hydrochloride and rivaroxaban in mainland China to Blue Valley Pharmaceutical, and sell dapoxetine hydrochloride to Tianfang Pharmaceutical; it will be in Phase I The technical ownership and intellectual property rights of "Recombinant Human Follicle Stimulating Hormone-CTP Fusion Protein Injection" under development in the clinical trial stage were transferred to Jinsai Pharmaceutical;

In 2021, Xinlitai transferred imatinib mesylate to Sinopharm Yixin, and received a technology transfer fee of 27 million yuan;

In 2021, Xinlitai announced a cooperation with South Korea's D&DPharmatech, I.

to obtain the exclusive license of its innovative drug DD01 in mainland Chi.

It is not difficult to see that the series of operations that Xinlitai has taken in the past two years have obvious goals for corporate strategic transformation and upgradi.

However, from 2018 to 2021, the investment in research and development expenses of Xinlitai fluctuated greatly, which were 407 million yuan, 763 million yuan, 371 million yuan, and 357 million yuan respective.

Drug research and development requires huge long-term investme.

In other words, time and cost are tes.

In 2021, Xinlitai's innovative product Xinlitan Allisartan Medoxomil has successfully renewed the national medical insurance catalogue through medical insurance negotiation, which has driven Xinlitai's business growth to a certain exte.

The 2021 annual report shows that Xinlitai’s annual revenue exceeded 3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 168%; net profit was 534 million, a year-on-year increase of 779%; non-net profit deducted was 283 million, a year-on-year increase of 728
From the perspective of performance, Xinlitai is now beginning to return to the growth track, but there is still a big gap compared with the performance before volume procureme.

 

Experts pointed out that the national centralized drug procurement can be regarded as a sign that domestic generic drugs have entered the era of meager profits, and the decline of generic drug companies is also inevitab.

Correspondingly, it also confirms that the core of the development of pharmaceutical companies should be innovative research and developme.

Different from Xinlitai's situation of centralized procurement, for HEC Pharmaceuticals, it is more relaxed in terms of space and time for innovation and transformati.

On the one hand, in addition to oseltamivir, the two major varieties of cardiovascular drug metoprolol and schizophrenia drug aripiprazole were purchased by the state in large quantiti.

On the other hand, recombinant human insulin injection and insulin glargine injection have been approved, and the product pipeline in the field of diabetes has gradually form.

However, whether it is chemical generic drugs or insulin, the price reduction of centralized procurement is always a reality that enterprises cannot esca.

To gain a long-term market competitive advantage, innovation is still the only opti.

At the end of last year, the major shareholder of HEC was changed from HEC to Guangdong HERO Pharmaceuticals .

, L.

(“Herein Research” for short), and had the right to obtain the domestic products of HERO at 0 consideration, which can be regarded as HERO A signal that begins to shift the company's focus to innovative R&.

The main body of Sunshine Research is the Sunshine Pharmaceutical Research Institute, which was founded in 200 From 2015 to 2018, the number of first authorized patents for its compounds ranked first among Chinese pharmaceutical compani.

At present, Dongguang Research has successfully introduced 7 billion yuan of investment, and will soon be listed on the Science and Technology Innovation Boa.

After being spun off from HEC, it belongs to HE.

The purpose is to integrate resources and build a comprehensive listed pharmaceutical group integrating R&D, production and sal.

"Strive for sales to exceed 26 billion in 2026" is the goal set by the Sunshine Pharmaceutical sector for itself, and this goal is obviously an impossible task to rely only on oseltamivir to save itself, or through some generic drugs and insul.

In 2021, the revenue of HEC Pharm will drop by 608% year-on-year to 914 million yuan, and the loss will be 588 million yu.

It will turn from profit to lo.

Whether HEC Pharm can overcome the performance quagmire in the short term and quickly complete the innovation transformation depends on the future product pipeli.

R&D progre.

Some industry experts estimate that after the start of centralized procurement, one-third of pharmaceutical companies will disappear in the futu.

The fundamental reason for these companies to withdraw from the market is that they cannot promote the high-quality development of China's pharmaceutical industry, nor can they develop Real medicines that meet the unmet clinical needs of our count.

From the "one product dominance" to the innovative product cluster, Xinlitai is still on the road of transformati.

Facing the pressure of centralized procurement and price reduction and the short-term performance impact, will HEC be the next "Xinlitai"? ?