Opportunities for domestic soybean price increase (1) (11.16)

OA show ('918 '); recently, due to some fundamental changes in the domestic and foreign markets, the current situation of the downturn in the soybean market in the harvest season has changed Various signs show that the domestic soybean market, which has been stuck for more than one month, is about to show a trace of vitality, and the market prospects tend to be optimistic The international market soybean falls the space to be limited, the aftermarket is optimistic First, the US soybean production reduction will support the market The report to be released this month is likely to continue to reduce soybean production As the data of USDA is always conservative, the adjustment range of soybean production forecast in recent two months is relatively small compared with the actual reduction range After all, from the perspective of government macro-control, in order to slow down the market shock, the moderate adjustment method is often adopted In the USDA report in August, the soybean output and yield per unit have reached the highest level, 2.989 billion bushels and 4.07 bushels respectively In the following two months, the output and yield per unit have been reduced mildly From the current prediction and analysis of various agencies, the output reduction is still not in place The monthly supply and demand report released this month will further reduce the output As predicted by our company last month, the final unit output may be between 37.5-38.5 bushels, and the corresponding total output is between 2.750-2.8 billion bushels, only slightly higher than the maximum output of 2.74 billion bushels in 1998 [see Table 1] before the release of the report on November 9, the forecast values of f.c.stone and sparks have brought great turbulence to the market on November 2 CBOT contracts generally rose 10 cents, and the contract closed at $4.83 in January Once the report released next week is as expected, the price will inevitably rise South America's planting area has only increased slightly this year As predicted by safras, the area of Brazil's soybeans this year will reach 13.394 million hectares, only 0.2% higher than that of the previous year Although the Argentine government is optimistic about the soybean planting area, it has not given clear data The planting area last year was 8.738 million hectares, the highest level in history The sown area of South American soybean is the main factor affecting the supply Of course, with the start of sowing in South America, its influence on the market cannot be ignored However, in the short term, as long as there is no extreme weather during the whole sowing period or even the early growth stage, its influence will not be too strong After all, the final output is the most important factor Table 1: comparison of U.S soybean output and unit yield from August to November this year: output [100 million bushels] output [10000 tons] unit yield [bushels / acre] USDA report in August 29.89 8134 40.7 September USDA report 29 7890 39.5 October USDA report 28.23 7680 38.7 November report forecast 27.50-28 7480-7620 37.5-38.5 F C.stone 27.74 7550 sparks 27.57 7500 data source: USDA second, the demand for soybeans in the United States has finally appeared a good situation for a long time In the new crop year (from September 2000), the export of soybeans in the United States was significantly lower than that in the same period of last year, with the export speed lagging 29% at most However, a few weeks later, the pace of soybean export in the United States has been quietly catching up, only 7% behind The export volume has picked up significantly By the end of October, the actual export of soybean in this year was 174.8 million bushels, compared with 187.6 million bushels in the same period last year [see Table 2] This week [October 26] soybean sales in the United States are booming, with a total of 980000 tons of soybeans sold, exceeding the range of 600000-850000 tons originally expected by the market, up 13% compared with last week's sales, and up 28% compared with the average level of the previous four weeks, which also shows that at the end of soybean harvesting in the United States, when the price is relatively low, the overseas market will pay more attention to American soybeans According to market news, the spot price of soybeans in the U.S is stronger than that in previous years With the support of farmers' psychology of reluctant to sell, it shows that there is limited space for prices to fall If this mentality of reluctant to sell is only short-term, the price will further fluctuate up and down, and if it is long-term, the price will inevitably move upward Operation, especially after the harvest pressure gradually subsides, the price is difficult to fall back Table 2: actual export situation of us soybeans in this year: unit: million bushels date export in this week year year on year cumulative year on year year year on year export comparison 9 / 07 / 00 15.1 9 15.1 14.5 4% 14 10.5 17.8 25.7 32.2 -20% 21 9.9 16 35.5 48.3 -26% 28 15.8 24.4 51.4 72.7 -29% 10/05/00 24 17.1 76.1 89.8 -15% 12 31.1 33.6 107.3 123.3 -13% 19 34 32 139.4 155.3-10% 26 31.7 32.3 174.8 187.6-7% (author:)